NFL Draft Predictions, AFC Edition

Where everyone will land—but stat-based!

April 22, 2025

April 22, 2025

Draft Day Wish List, Part Two: While I don’t claim to be the world’s foremost expert on NFL Draft prospects, I do know one thing—no one gets the entire puzzle right. We explored some of the ridiculous “smoke” rumors from previous years and … well … remember when Malik Willis was going No. 2?

John Laghezza

AFC Landing Spot Predictions In The NFL Draft

Every year, picks get made that shock the NFL landscape—oftentimes to resounding boos, before they even have a chance to mature. Remember, it wasn’t that long ago all of social media (and some websites) torched the Lions’ front office for drafting Jahmyr Gibbs at No. 12 overall—and now he’s one of the premier offensive players in the game.

Bottom line is this: None of us knows exactly what’s going on in these team meetings, so I did what I do best — I dug through my handy-dandy spreadsheets to identify each team’s most glaring need before attempting to address it. The NFC edition is here.

Using as many resources as humanly possible, I give you my AFC Draft Day Wish List …

(and if you can’t wait and neeeeed to read the latest mock … here you go 👇👇)

Hot takes 🔥 , hotter takes 🔥🔥🔥, and the latest draft rumors …

🏈 Over at the Fantasy Life Newsletter, Pete looked at 5 spicy draft rumors.

📋 The Thor 500 is deep and awesome. DID YOU KNOW you can filter by college?

👀 WATCH THIS: Emory Hunt, Thor, and Kendall did a first-round mock. (Emory’s draft guide can be found here).

🏈 It’s a great week to be great. Here’s our NFL Draft coverage schedule.

🔮 The speculation has been incredible for these NFL Draft landing spots.

🏈🙏🏼 Stat-Based AFC Draft Day Wish List: Top Half Round 1 🙏🏼🏈

Tennessee Titans, Pick 1: My tune hasn’t changed one bit since imploring the Titans, who averaged just 195 passing yards per game in 2024, to , in a prior BL newsletter. Please draft Cam Ward.

Cleveland Browns, Pick 2: In an attempt to close the gap on two of the world’s best quarterbacks wreaking havoc in their own division, the Browns add to last year’s league-leading 41.7% pressure rate by selecting Penn State’s Abdul Carter.

New England Patriots, Pick 4: The Pats allowed 42 sacks on the NFL’s second-to-worst pressure rate allowed (43.2%)  in 2024—expect them to shore up the trenches with LSU’s versatile tackle Will Campbell.

Jacksonville Jaguars, Pick 5: Jacksonville struggles mightily on the defensive line, wrapping up last season 30th or worse in blitz rate (9.3%), quarterback hits per game (6.5), and snaps per splash play (3.3). Despite some uncertainty outside the top-3 overall, I’ve recently come around on drafting Michigan’s big interior defender, Mason Graham, in the five-hole.

Las Vegas Raiders, Pick 6: Combine the league’s worst rushing offense in terms of yards per rush (3.6), EPA per carry (-0.21), and explosive rush rate (5%) with a chance at CFB’s most prolific record-breaking RB production to land Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty in Raider silver and black.

New York Jets, Pick 7: The Jets haven’t rostered an impact player at tight end in my lifetime. Finally, that comes to a glorious conclusion with the selection of Penn State’s Tyler Warren, who won’t just boost the pass-catcher room’s talent—he’s also an excellent blocker.

Miami Dolphins, Pick 13: The retirement of former five-time Pro Bowler Terron Armstead leaves a rather glaring hole in an offensive line with a top-5 pressure rate allowed, with the main goal of protecting Tua Tagovailoa. With a serious chance this draft class’ top tackle, Missouri Tiger Armand Membou, slides into the double-digits, I expect him to get scooped up by Mike McDaniel and Co.

Indianapolis Colts, Pick 14: The tight end position down in Indy has been an abject disaster for as long as I can remember. In a league with only 32 teams, there were 58 players at the position with more catches than the Colts’ Kylen Granson. While it seems unusual on its face for two TEs to go in the top-15, I can’t see Indianapolis passing over industry favorite and big-time playmaker Colston Loveland out of Michigan.

I mentioned this in the Watercooler, but here’s how you can filter by school in the Thor 500:

🏈🙏🏼 Stat-Based AFC Draft Day Wish List: Bottom Half Round 1 🙏🏼🏈

Cincinnati Bengals, Pick 17: The Bengals defense might be as bad as the offense is good, which says a lot. Cincy finished bottom-3 in points allowed (25.5), defensive EPA/play (-0.05), and tackle success rate (47.3%). Yikes. Look for CIN to grab Georgia Bulldog Jalon Walker to boost those metrics across the board as the best available player on that side of the ball.

Denver Broncos, Pick 20: Running back has easily been the position I’m struggling to nail down the most. By my best accounting, there are three coveted players max, and a bevy of teams in the running to make a backfield splash—maybe none more than Denver. The Broncos posted a pathetic 4.1 yards per rush on just 2.51 yards after contact per carry. If Tar Heel Omarion Hampton’s still floating out there, he’s heading for the Mile High City—but if not, don’t be shocked to see ASU’s Cam Skattebo break into the first round.

Pittsburgh Steelers, Pick 21: The Steelers and defense go together like peanut butter and jelly. While Pittsburgh defended the run well in 2024 (98.7 rushing yards allowed per game), Cam Heyward is getting on in years and they just released veteran Larry Ogunjobi. With the 21st pick PIT selects the best available interior defender, Michigan’s Kenneth Grant.

Los Angeles Chargers, Pick 22: The Chargers wildly exceeded expectations last year but eventually fell short, namely due to their inability to stop the run (4.7 yards per rush, 3.10 yards after contact per rush, 13 +20-yard carries allowed). With most pass-catching talent gone in the backend of the first round, look for the Bolts to fill their defensive gaps with the Crimson Tide’s playmaking LB Jihaad Campbell. 

Houston Texans, Pick 25: Won’t somebody protect C.J. Stroud?!? The Texans allowed 39 sacks on a 38.9% pressure rate, which must be addressed if their franchise QB stands any chance of surviving the decade. Anticipate Houston to make the obvious move and secure North Dakota State’s Grey Zabel at tackle.

Baltimore Ravens, Pick 27: Watch any recent Ravens game—the first thought after how good Lamar Jackson is rests with how poorly the secondary has played opposite him. I understand a prolific offense stresses the defense. That said, there’s no better time than the present to bolster a passing defense finishing bottom-3 in passing yards allowed per game (244.1) and completed deep shots (58). If I’m Baltimore, I’m already preparing a uniform for Longhorn Jahdae Barron.

Buffalo Bills, Pick 30: After allowing more than 23 completions per game at an astounding 68.5% completion rate, perhaps no one’s more needy of secondary help in the form of Ole Miss’ playmaking CB Trey Amos.

Kansas City Chiefs, Pick 31: As the Chiefs move away from being the explosive offensive juggernaut (5.1 yards per play) we’ve come to know and hate, it’s never been more critical to give Patrick Mahomes time to operate. With the penultimate pick in the first, I have Oregon Duck Josh Conerly circled to accomplish just that.

 

🧮⚾Betting Research Center—MLBMA Algo™ Data⚾🧮

Today’s SP Sheet

For anyone still interested in daily MLB betting on a more granular level, hit me up anytime on X @JohnLaghezza. I provide my world-famous starting pitching sheets and MLB Moving Averages Algorithm results seven days a week to the betting public.

Hope you enjoyed today’s Betting Life newsletter! Please feel free to contact me with any questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you!

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