🏈 The NFL Draft Continues

The NFL Draft: The biggest thing in Detroit since Slim Shady.

In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by BetMGM.

Soccer may be the biggest sport in the world, but the No. 1 sport in America is unquestionably football. The NFL is so big that the No. 2 sport in America is the NFL offseason.

The offseason had one of its marquee events on Thursday, with the first round taking place in Detroit. It’s not just a big event for fans, but it’s a huge event for bettors, as well.

With that in mind, let’s take a look back at some of the biggest surprises from Day 1.

🦈 Quarterback Feeding Frenzy

The 2024 NFL Draft will go down as the year of the quarterback. A whopping six quarterbacks came off the board in the first 12 picks. Only one previous draft had six QBs come off the board in the first round, and the No. 6 QB in that draft was taken at pick 27.

The only way to describe what happened was “feeding frenzy.”

It all started at pick No. 8. The Falcons went off-script by selecting Michael Penix Jr. in a move that no one saw coming:

After that, the Vikings and Broncos decided that they’d rather “reach” for a quarterback than pass and hope to address the position later. Quarterback is easily the most important position in all of sports, so you really can’t “overdraft” someone if you think they can be your franchise guy.

Only time will tell if these picks work out or if they will join the growing list of first-round busts.

📈 Offense Reigns Supreme

It wasn’t just quarterbacks that flew off the board in Day 1. Offensive players in general dominated the first half of Round 1, with the first 14 players selected residing on that side of the ball.

In addition to the six quarterbacks, three receivers, one tight end, and four offensive linemen came off the board before a single defender was selected. It was the first time in modern draft history that no defensive player was selected in the Top 10, let alone the Top 14.

The Colts finally broke the streak with the No. 15 pick, selecting pass-rusher Laiatu Latu from UCLA. He closed at around +150 to be the first defensive player selected, so his choice wasn’t that big of a surprise.

With Day 1 in the books, it’s time to transition into Day 2. Kody Malstrom breaks down a few things to keep your eye on for the second and third rounds.

💰 2024 NFL Draft Day 2 - Best Bets

📝 Bills First Draft Pick Position: WR (-300, DraftKings)

If it were not for the Atlanta Falcons making one of the biggest surprise picks of the draft in quite some time, then the Bills would have gotten more attention for their head-scratching decision to trade back twice out of the first round of the draft.

Not only did they trade out of the first round, but they allowed their heated playoff rival, the Kansas City Chiefs, to jump ahead of them. To rub dirt back in their face, the Chiefs used their pick on a wide receiver, giving Patrick Mahomes another toy to play with.

Luckily for the Bills, their willingness to trade back signals that they are still potentially looking at the wide receiver market and have sacrificed little value with plenty of big names still ripe for the picking to start off Day 2.

They were wildly expected to draft a wide receiver in Round 1, and expectations remain the same to kick off day two with the 33rd pick of the draft. In terms of EDP, Adonai Mitchell, Ladd McConkey, and Troy Franklin fit the range, per GrindingtheMocks.

Adonai was initially believed to be the Bills pick leading up to the draft before his stock started to crumble leading up to draft night. He would still serve as a valuable Day 2 pick for the Bills’ barren wide receiver room.

Drafting a wide receiver will also be vital at 33, as the Bills may find themselves void of starting-worthy options the next time they hear their name on the clock. Plenty of teams drafting immediately after them, like the Patriots, Commanders, Chargers, and Titans are all void of receiver talent and would be thrilled to pick up one of the bigger remaining names should the Bills look elsewhere.

It may be heavily juiced, but backing heavily juiced bets for the NFL Draft is a common practice and should not deter you when the choice is glaring. Be sure to line shop as odds for this wager wildly vary, sitting as high as -370 at FanDuel while DraftKings has them listed at -300. 

🌭 Baseball rolls on, and we have the bets. Look to this home underdog for value today.

🏒 The goals have been flowing in the Kings/Oilers series. Take advantage with some big odds on a goal prop tonight.

🐦‍⬛ The most unlikely landing spot. Michael Penix Jr. may have broken the internet, but for some bettors, he was a cash cow.

⛓ Matthew Freedman was not the only one unhappy about the Penix selection. The Falcons’ franchise QB is feeling “stunned”.

🏅 Despite the Penix fiasco, Freedman was pretty spot on with his mock draft. He finished fourth out of 123 participants in first-round accuracy.

🎲 Speaking of QBs … A record six were taken in the top 12 of the draft; the pre-draft odds last night told the story. 

🤷 MOAR big betting surprises in the Draft. The Raiders took a TE to the delight of some sharp bettors.

⛏️ A potential plot twist in San Francisco. Will Deebo be the WR on the move after the 49ers selected Rickey Pearsall?

🌀 The Canes were -340 to beat the Islanders. Thanks to Frederik Anderson, they’re now one game away from achieving that feat.

Friday offers up a trio of Game 3s on the hardwood. Two of the series are currently tied at one game apiece, while the Timberwolves lead the Suns 2-0. All three games are vitally important, and Matt LaMarca breaks down some of his favorite betting options for this slate.

✂️ Los Angeles Clippers +4.5 at Dallas Mavericks (-105; BetMGM)

The Clippers may have lost Game 2 vs. the Mavericks, but they took a big step toward winning the war. They got Kawhi Leonard back from injury after missing the previous nine contests, and Kawhi remains their most important player. When Leonard was on the floor this season, the Clippers increased their Net Rating by +10.1 points per 100 possessions. When Leonard, Paul George, and James Harden shared the court, they outscored opponents by +10.0 points per 100 possessions.

Leonard was limited to just under 35 minutes in his first game back, and he’ll likely play a bit more as the series progresses. George has averaged more than 37 minutes per game in this series, while Harden has been above 40.

Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are going to get theirs for Dallas, but the Clippers have the more complete roster. The Mavs only have one other player averaging more than 5.0 points per game through the first two contests (P.J. Washington), so they’re pretty much a two-man show. This series looks poised to go the distance, but I think the Clippers’ depth will win out in the end.

⌚ Damian Lillard Over 31.5 points (-102; DraftKings)

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. I rode with Dame Time in Game 2, and he responded with 34 points and a 31.2% usage rate.

He’s taken on a massive scoring burden with Giannis Antetokounmpo sidelined, and I see no reason why that would change in Game 3. His scoring prop remains a couple of points too low.