🏈 NFL Combine Risers & Fallers

Now that we’ve seen these guys in aerodynamic underwear, we know everything about them …

In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by BetMGM:

As I’m writing this, the OLs are finishing up their combine drills, so it’s time to look at the long week that was and highlight the guys who notably helped and hurt their draft stock in Indianapolis.

Here are my combine risers and fallers, with brief notes.

⬆️ Risers

• WR Xavier Worthy: Real chance to go in Round 1 with the new combine 40-yard dash record (4.21 seconds!).

• QB J.J. McCarthy: Good word of mouth at the event, sufficient size (219 lbs.), and elite agility (6.82-second three-cone).

• EDGE Dallas Turner: Position-best 40 time (4.46 seconds) and No. 1 defender expectations.

• RB Trey Benson: Round 2 potential thanks to his elite athleticism (sub-4.40 40-yard dash at 215-plus lbs.).

• CB Nate Wiggins: Blazing speed (4.28-second 40) to compensate for his small frame (173 lbs.).

• TE Brock Bowers: Enough size (6’3” and 243 lbs.) to be an NFL difference maker.

• WR Brian Thomas: Outstanding athletic performance (4.33-second 40 at 6’3” and 209 lbs.) and the look of a Round 1 lock.

• WR Ladd McConkey: Great hands, strong technique — and then legit speed (4.39-second 40 at 6’ and 186 lbs.).

• DT Byron Murphy: DT1 probability after his combine drills.

• CB Quinyon Mitchell: Size/speed combo to match his college production.

⬇️ Fallers

• WR Keon Coleman: Muddied athletic profile (“plays faster than he tests”) with his sluggish 4.61-second 40 time.

• RB Blake Corum: Borderline NFL physical ability based on size (5’8” and 205 lbs.) and speed (4.53-second 40).

• EDGE Bralen Trice: Uninspiring speed (4.72-second 40 time) after losing 30 lbs. in an attempt to run fast.

• CB Terrion Arnold: Smooth on-field workout and great interviews but mediocre athleticism (4.50-second 40 time at 6’ and 189 lbs.).

• CB Ennis Rakestraw: Maximal dawg … but minimal size (5’11” and 183 lbs.) and subpar speed (4.51-second 40 time).

➡️ Next Mock Draft

When I next update my NFL mock draft, I might have more WRs and fewer CBs than I do currently. This is just such a strong WR class.

And I might have QB J.J. McCarthy in my top 10: It feels like the NFL community is high on him, the Cardinals and Chargers at Nos. 4-5 could be willing trade partners for teams outside the top 10, and the Giants and Falcons at Nos. 6 & 8 might be candidates to select him.

Keep an eye out for my next mock.

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Monday features a six-game NBA slate, including a few marquee matchups. Matt LaMarca breaks down a few bets that caught his eye…

✂️ Clippers (+5.5) at Bucks (-110; BetMGM)

I can’t say that I fully understand this line. Yes, the Clippers are on the road for a second consecutive night, while the Bucks are coming off two consecutive days off. That gives the Bucks an advantage, and there’s always a chance that the Clippers choose to give one of their star players the night off.

Still, this line seems way too large given the gap in production between these squads this season.

The Clippers have been the better team in terms of Net Rating (+4.7 vs. +4.4) and have been significantly better on the defensive end. They’ve been even better when they’ve had all their stars together, posting a Net Rating of +10.4 with Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and James Harden on the floor this season.

George returned to the lineup for the team’s past two games, including an impressive win over the Timberwolves on Sunday. As long as he’s active – along with Leonard and Harden – this is simply too many points.

🔑 Keyonte George Over 2.5 3-Pointers (-125; DraftKings)

I’ve been fading the Jazz since moving George into the starting lineup, and that’s worked pretty well for the most part. They’ve gone just 1-7 over their last eight games, with the lone win coming against the Spurs. With Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler both now sidelined with injuries, I don’t expect them to look any better Monday vs. the Wizards.

That said, I’m going to go in a different direction. Instead of fading the team, I’m going to buy George as an individual. He’s looked much more comfortable in recent games, particularly from behind the 3-point line. He’s launched an average of 9.0 3-point attempts over his past three contests, including 14 Saturday vs. the Heat. Washington’s defense isn’t awful at defending the 3-point line – they’re 11th in opponent 3-pointers made per game – but if George can knock down six 3-pointers vs. the Heat, I think he can get to three in this matchup.