What is in today’s newsletter?

1. Win Total Over/Unders are out for the 2024-25 NBA season. Who stands out as too high or too low?

2. Mark Drumheller breaks down Amanda Lemos vs. Virna Jandiroba at UFC Fight Night.

3. Watercooler: Freedman identifies QB prop bets to target.

NBA Win Total Over/Unders for 2024-25

by Matt LaMarca

Utah Jazz Under 28.5 (-120; Caesars)

The Jazz are currently my pick to finish with one of the three worst records in the NBA. That’s a bit of a hot take based on the current win totals. Their number is set at 28.5, while the Nets, Wizards, Blazers, and Pistons are all at 24.5 or lower.

However, I don’t think the market is accounting for the Jazz trading away Lauri Markkanen, which seems like an inevitability before the start of the season. Markkanen is on the last year of his deal before hitting unrestricted free agency, and the Jazz figure they have little chance of bringing him back. With the team not expected to contend anyway, it makes sense to turn Markkanen into something that could help the long-term outlook of the franchise.

Markkanen is easily the team’s best player, and he’s a borderline top-20 player overall. He’s averaged 24.5 points per game over the past two seasons while shooting 49.0% from the field and 39.5% from 3-point range.

In more than 2100 minutes without Markkanen last season, the team was among the worst in basketball. They were outscored by 9.5 points per 100 possessions; only the Hornets had a worse season-long mark, and they won just 21 games.

If Markkanen goes, there is nothing to get excited about in the cupboard. Keyonte George has potential, but he struggled for most of his rookie season. First-round pick Cody Williams is more of a role player than a future star. Jordan Clarkson could also get traded before the deadline to a team in need of scoring help.

Ultimately, this feels like the start of a new chapter in Utah. Don’t be surprised if it gets off to an ugly start.

San Antonio Spurs Over 35.5 (-110; BetMGM)

This might be a “trendy” over, but I can’t help it. Victor Wembanyama is coming off one of the greatest rookie seasons in history, and I’m super excited about what he can do in Year Two.

The crazy thing is – Wembanyama doesn’t really need to improve for the Spurs to hit the over on this total. After the All-Star break, the team had a positive Net Rating with the wunderkind on the floor. He averaged 23.5 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game while providing some of the best defense in all of basketball.

Of course, Wembanyama is going to get better. He’s still just 20 years old and won't turn 21 until the middle of next year. His potential is unlimited, and he’ll have a better supporting cast to work with in 2024-25.

The big addition was Chris Paul, who is coming off the worst season of his career. He’s clearly on the downside of his career, but don’t underestimate what his veteran presence can bring to a young team. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander credits Paul with helping him develop as a player, and he just led the Thunder to the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference.

Harrison Barnes also gives the Spurs a reliable scoring option, while Stephon Castle brings championship experience from UConn and excellent perimeter defense. Add those guys to Keldon Johnson, Tre Jones, Devin Vassell, and Jeremy Sochan, and this team has the potential to make the play-in tournament. I’d rather be a year too early than a year too late.

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UFC Fight Night Best Bets

by Mark Drumheller

The UFC returns to the Apex this Saturday to provide us with some action before next weekend’s big pay-per-view event in Manchester, England.

Two Brazilian strawweight contenders, Amanda Lemos and Virna Jandiroba, are set to battle it out for five rounds in the main event. The 12-fight card features plenty of combatants capable of pressing the action, putting on exciting fights, and expanding the attack surface for our betting opportunities. I closed up the prop market for his week and focused on four money line bets, including a nice-sized underdog on the preliminary card.

Let’s break down our UFC best bets - starting with my confident play on the card in the main event.

Virna Jandiroba ML (-130; BetMGM)

There are times when the “striker vs. grappler” label gets misused when there are other significant factors that could impact the fight. This is not one of them. Saturday’s main event is truly a binary fight that will be determined by Lemos’ ability to leverage her striking to avoid ending up on her back. There is no argument when it comes to the hands of Lemos - she packs fight-changing power.

Lemos recently starched Marina Rodriguez, and has eight knockouts in fourteen career wins. But here’s why I’m willing to bet it’s not going to matter when she faces Jandiroba.

Jandiroba has that dawg in her when it comes to imposing her grappling. During her three-fight winning streak, she has accumulated over 25 minutes of control time. We have also recently seen Lemos succumb to an onslaught of takedown attempts (allowed 6 of 7) in her loss to strawweight champion, Zhang Weili. She was also controlled throughout most of the first round in her last fight against Mackenzie Dern.

In fights taking place at the lighter weight classes, I side more with grapplers and their ability to absorb enough shots to get the fight on the mat. The women’s strawweight division historically has one of the lowest knockout rates (24%), and Janiroba’s grappling-heavy approach is more reliable considering both fighters are at an age where speed and reaction time decline.

Since joining the UFC, Jandiroba has been a perfect 4-0 as the betting favorite and continues to show improvement from fight to fight. She isn’t the flashiest fighter, but you can keep the style points. and just enjoy her cashing our bets.

The latest betting nuggets, silliness, and gossip from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

👀 Want more futures? Matthew Freedman lays out some of his favorite season-long quarterback props.

⚾️ MLB’s unofficial second half gets underway on Friday. LaMarca breaks down some of his top betting options.

🏆 Fantasy football draft season is right around the corner. Dwain McFarland highlights four potential league-winners to consider.

⛳️ If you had Daniel Brown as the first-round leader at The Open, please share your crystal ball. The longshot rewarded bettors with a big payday.

🏀 It’s Caitlin’s world; we’re just living in it. She set a WNBA record with 19 assists on Wednesday and is now -2000 to win Rookie of the Year.

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