Motor City Mayhem Kicks off Week 14

Lions-Packers on TNF is one of several big NFC North tilts the rest of the season

December 05, 2024

Dec. 5, 2024

Thursday Night Blitz, Packers (9-3) at Lions (11-1): Couldn’t tell you what got in the water at the NFL’s schedule-making HQ and don’t care. Somehow there’s another potential Thursday night thriller on deck worth staying up past my bedtime.

Hey, you won’t catch me complaining.

John Laghezza

Two of three playoff-bound teams from the NFC’s top division square off on the Motor City’s fast track. Despite combining for an impressive 20-4 record so far, every game still matters dearly with conference seeding resting on a razor’s edge.

No one says it better than our own Ian Hartitz:

Let me set the NFC table since I knocked out some due diligence already today. Detroit’s at 11 wins with the initial tiebreaker edge, due to victories over both the 10-win Vikings and 9-win Packers. Lions also hold a slight lead in conference record (the second tiebreaker) but before fans of the Pride breathe easy, check that schedule—it’s brutal. And not just for DET, but for everyone involved. All three teams in the division race still play one another once more, accounting for two of the five remaining contests. Then, all but one of the remaining eight games occur in conference against formidable teams with their own aspirations. So given there are only two games of NFC record separation with five to go and head-to-heads on the horizon, it’s anyone’s race.

As far as the game tonight, it’s about as close as you’d expect on paper. Man, these offenses rock. Detroit and Green Bay rank No. 2 and 3 respectively in yards/game and yards/play. Both earn top-5 grades across statistical bins as well—boasting positive success rates, sustaining drives, and converting gains to points on the ground or through the air with a variety of explosive plays. It’s on like Donkey Kong, baby.

However, when these rivals met Week 9 at Lambeau Field, it wound up looking nothing like the +50-point game total expected tonight. Neither offense could get the engine going through nearly two full quarters. That is until Kerby Joseph snatched a dump-off from Jordan Love intended for Josh Jacobs out of mid-air and housed it for a pick-six. That massive swing with 30 seconds in the half ended up being the difference.

However, the prospect of another two-way rock fight changed. I’m expecting a different style tonight on the racetrack at Ford Field. As great as the Lions’ defense played all year (2nd in scoring allowed and EPA/play on the season), the bodies just keep piling up on Dan Campbell. At this stage, Detroit has lost an entire starting defensive line—and a darn good one at that. First, it was losing stud DL Aidan Hutchinson, among others, from which they recovered quite admirably. Then, as if that wasn’t bad enough, the injury floodgates blew open last week. Levi Onwuzurike (hamstring), Josh Paschal (knee), and D.J. Reader (shoulder) all left and will miss tonight’s tilt. Sheesh. In case you didn’t see what the backend of that Bears’ game looked like, it got ugly—Chicago went for just under 250 yards in the second half alone on a 50% success rate, including eight (!) explosive plays. 

Don’t get me wrong, Jared Goff and the Lions can turn it on against anyone—they’ve dropped +23 points in nine straight for a reason. Again, my worry tonight for Detroit centers around Green Bay attacking the very obvious vulnerabilities up the middle with an already-effective run game. LEAN: GB +3.5 (-110)

Happy game day to all of you from everyone here at the Betting Life newsletter! Don’t be shy, contact me anytime on X @JohnLaghezza with questions, comments, or feedback.  I love hearing back from you! We’re here to help!

What else is in today’s newsletter?

  • The New York Prop Exchange: Sonic Speed

  • No Cap: Pack It Up, Pack It In, Let Me Begin

THE WATERCOOLER

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

🔮 We can never have enough analysis for this Week 14 TNF barn burner, so Freedman breaks down Lions-Packers from every angle.

👀 College Football conference championships are here and Thor’s CFB best bets have you covered.

🏆 Since we can’t get enough of CFB conference championships weekend, Claudia and Thor run through the all the betting action.

⚖️ For my fantasy football family, here’s my Week 14 start/sit column with Coach Gene. Yes, Kenneth Gainwell is on there.

TNF BETTING

The New York Prop Exchange🏈🏛️—Sonic Speed

I love it when player props line up multiple ways, and we get to back great players while we’re at it. You could’ve pretty much told me in passing we’re on Gibbs for 3 grabs tonight and earn my blessing. I understand he splits work at times. However, the nature of the Detroit offense creates a pie big enough to split and still get full.

For reference, Gibbs ranks 15th in the NFL among all RBs in offensive snaps. Not really a part-time player through that particular lens, now is he? He also happens to be the best pass-catching option out of the backfield in a game we may actually see Detroit trail.

When I mention multiple pathways to success, raw game planning is only the first. In a game of this magnitude—especially knowing their own limitations on defense—we could simply expect Dan Campbell to put his best foot forward in terms of explosiveness. Beyond that, however, is a schematic dream for RB receptions. Matt LaFleur deploys a softish style zone-heavy defense featuring tons of two-high shells from every personnel package. Green Bay disguises its intentions well, even dropping eight defenders often but the lack of aggressiveness shows up in their pressure stats—the Packers get fewer than eight QB hits and just a single sack per game. The extra time allows for tailback leak routes into the flat, something we see reflected in GB’s league-worst 6.7 RB receptions allowed per game over the last month.

Now add in the 50-point game total or the realistic chance of Detroit trailing late and we got ourselves a great shot to clear this bar easily.

Our Player Projections page offers a nice comparison.

TNF BETTING

No Cap🏈🧢—Pack It Up, Pack It In, Let Me Begin

THE BETS: Josh Jacobs O17.5 Attempts (+100) DraftKings

No need to run on anymore, I’ve already said my piece on tonight’s game. Whether it’s low-scoring or a shootout, I can’t get past the injuries. Adam Schefter just tweeted this graphic out and now it’s seared into the front of my brain

Lions’ faithful, avert your eyes…

I’m expecting the Pack to play defense on offense by hammering that wounded Lions’ interior relentlessly—and Josh Jacobs got 48 million smackers for exactly this scenario. A big road win could turn the tide of this season’s trajectory. During their three-game win streak off the bye, Jacobs dominated his team’s carry-share, averaging over 21 attempts per game.

So why is his line at 17.5 for even money? I’m not sure, I have 19 carries as a mean projection considering the implied totals. For confirmation bias' sake, I did check with resident expert Dwain McFarland and his work agrees on the over (whew). 

SHARP HUNTER

Where Are The Sharps Leaning For TNF?

Like many of you, I’m still reeling days later after the Browns somehow failed to cover the 6.5-point spread against the Broncos on Monday Night Football. 

That was a tough loss for those of us with CLE plus the points. 

Pain. 

Thankfully, we’ve got a good one scheduled for Thursday Night Football and the start of Week 14—an NFC North showdown between the Packers and the Lions in Detroit. 

Depending on where you’re betting, the Lions are either a 3 or 3.5-point favorite in a game with a total of 51.5. 

At Sharp Hunter, we track thousands of bets from the sharpest bettors in the market. Not just NFL—but CFB, CBB, and the NBA. 

Our sharps like the road ’dog Packers getting the points in this spot and we’re showing a Three-Bag Sharp Score (💰💰💰) to back that up. 

I am happy to bet with the sharps here and play the Packers. 

Both teams played on Thanksgiving, so no extra rest for either team. But the Lions come into this game really banged up. LT Taylor Decker is OUT and his replacement was not good last week. On defense, an already-beat-up unit will be without Josh Paschal, DJ Reader, and Levi Onwuzurike. The Packers should be able to move the ball on the ground and Packers DC and former Boston College HC Jeff Hafley will find ways to create pressure on Jared Goff … especially with Decker out. 

The Lions should be able to have success of their own on offense—note No. 1 CB Jaire Alexander OUT for Green Bay. We could see plenty of points in this one. 

The first time these two teams met, it was Green Bay and quarterback Jordan Love that were banged up. Now it’s Detroit that comes limping in. 

Packers HC Matt LaFleur has great numbers as an underdog with Green Bay—24-12 ATS. Plus, this is a divisional game with the two teams meeting for a second time this season—the type of game where I target the underdog. 

Detroit is as low as +150 to win the NFC. Are they the best team in the conference? Probably. But they’re banged up and facing a good team and a head coach with a strong record as an underdog. 

And I agree. Packers plus for me on Thursday Night.

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