What else is in today’s newsletter?

• The New York Prop Exchange

• Building Blocks

• Give ‘Em The Heater

The New York Prop Exchange 🏈🏛️—Breece’s Pieces

Straight adrenaline for 7.5 hours of commercial-free football got my heart pounding out of my chest, so I’ll keep tonight’s cap short. Tonight my New York J-E-T-S JETS! JETS! JETS! head out for the best coast to face the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football. As someone in the building exactly one year ago to see Aaron Rodgers do his best Captain America impression at MetLife for all of four snaps, let’s just call my optimism cautious.

[For more props and predictions, check out the Fantasy Life props tool and our expert player projections.]

There’s one thing, however, even the most self-hating, pessimistic gang-greener like myself would admit — Breece Hall is freaking awesome. Looking at what he accomplished last year with some of the worst quarterback play in a quarter-century is remarkable. Hall averaged over 93 scrimmage yards a game (below)—and that’s with the Jets’ coaches admitting to limiting him early on. 

Hall ranked second in the league in total scrimmage yards (below), going out with a bang in an incredible 526-yard explosion from Weeks 16-18. 

And then there’s the pure workload that I’m betting will get us past the goal despite an admittedly tough matchup. At over 31%, Hall actually leapfrogged Christian McCaffrey in terms of total percentage of team yards from scrimmage last season (below).

I chose the combined rush + receiving yard prop to cover our backdoor in case of negative game script. Jets ahead in a dogfight? It’s Breece between the tackles. Jets trailing late? It’s checkdown city, baby! Any way you slice it, the Jets deploy such a narrow utilization tree, it’s hard to see Hall finishing healthy and to the under. 

THE BET: Breece Hall Over 92.5 Rush + Rec Yards (-115) DraftKing Sportsbook

You can also track all of my NFL bets for every week of the season as well as futures with our free NFL Bet Tracker!

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Be on the lookout for more betting product launches as we approach Week 1 of the NFL season, too!

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Building Blocks 🧠🧮 — TT > ML / ATS

TT > ML/ATS may look like any other high school algebra equation, but this building block is actually useful in real life. The theory is simple—gambling on sports is really hard and we should strive to eliminate variables whenever possible. 

The solution to successfully betting NFL opening lines, regardless if it’s for an outright win (ML) or against the spread (ATS) remains beyond human calculation. And as if that weren’t bad enough, the wisdom of a global crowd then steps in to smooth out any edges. Rather than surrender and always enjoying a good challenge, I added something to my checklist before ever pulling the trigger — team totals (TT). Again, the thinking is simple. Eclipsing a team total provides a singular objective goal, not one that exists on a sliding scale. 

Sunday’s Week 1 ARI/BUF game exemplified this perfectly. I thought Buffalo laying (+5.5) was too rich, saying just as much in last week’s survivor article (Make sure to read every Thursday!). That said, how could I not worry about the Cards’ defense being atrocious? Except, instead of wishing or hoping against hope for a result, I checked the team total to discover it was only 19.5.

It almost doesn’t matter how much you like getting the 5.5 points if there is no scenario it happens scoring fewer than 20. In this case, I couldn’t imagine it—so it’s definitely worth those few seconds to check the total first. The very same analysis yielded different results whether you went Arizona TTO19.5 or Arizona +5.5.

If College Football is also your game, follow the weekly best bets from our Betting Life staff.

Give ‘Em The Heater ⚾️🔥 — Reid-ing Rainbow

Quick bonus MLB prop without running on too long. Here’s the skinny. Slight changes in a pitcher’s mechanics, delivery or release point can cause an immediate impact. Whatever the Angels did to regain Reid Detmers’ spin rate on his breaking stuff is working like a charm. The Halos’ lefty SP regained peak powers recently after a disastrous start to 2024, averaging nearly 7.5 K/G over a dozen starts (below) — capped off by going over 9 Ks four times in a row!

The Twins’ team K% vs LHP sits right around average (23%) over 30 days (~300 PA) but both chase and zone-contact rates rank in the bottom-10. Frankly, I’m not sure it matters — Detmers is a +6K guy getting off the bus.

THE BET: Reid Detmers Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-115) FanDuel

You can search for MLB Player Props for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Finder!

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

Dwain McFarland introduces the Utilization Score to help us understand player roles to forecast future performance.

Get a jump on NFL Week 2 with this great episode featuring player props, spreads, totals, and more.

Jets vs. 49ers on Monday Night Football. What are the sharps betting on?

Matt LaMarca gets a jump on the early betting lines for what’s shaping up to be an epic Week 2 in the NFL. 

Geoff Ulrich offers an overview of the big upsets and late covers in his Week 1 NFL Betting Recap.

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