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The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

📈 It’s never too early to start thinking about next year. Thor Nystrom breaks down his winners and losers from Senior Bowl week.

🌟 But first, there’s the actual Senior Bowl game. Thor previews Quarterbacks, Running Backs, and Pass Catchers.

🔮 Where is Jalen Milroe going to get drafted after his Senior Bowl week? Freedman’s mock draft has the plan.

 🎤 The Super Bowl—the only game where you can win money before the kickoff. Geoff Ulrich with all you need to know for the National Anthem.

🏈 Other Bets for the Super Bowl. LaMarca’s early thoughts on Chiefs-Eagles.

✏️ Sharpen your pencils and take notes. Ian Hartitz and Dwain McFarland discuss their way-too-early quarterback, running back, and wide receiver rankings.

🏆 Did Freedman move to Florida? One bettor has thrown down on both kickers to take home Super Bowl MVP.

MLB Futures: Buy Low on Corbin Carroll?

by Matt LaMarca

Corbin Carroll to Win NL MVP (+2000; Caesars)

When thinking about baseball, it’s hard to get past the Dodgers at the moment. They managed to win 98 games en route to a World Series last year, and they did it with pretty poor luck from an injury perspective. By the time the playoffs rolled around, they had basically an entire rotation’s worth of pitchers on the IL, and it still didn’t stop them from grabbing the World Series Trophy.

The Dodgers chose not to rest on their laurels during the offseason. The rich got even richer, adding Blake Snell, Roki Sasaki, and Tanner Scott, as well as re-signing Teoscar Hernandez and extending playoff hero Tommy Edman. They also made some less-splashy moves that could prove just as vital, signing guys like Michael Conforto, Kirby Yates, and Hyeseong Kim.

The inevitability of the Dodgers extends to the award markets as well. Shohei Ohtani is a massive favorite to take home his second consecutive MVP Award. He’s listed at +200, and Juan Soto (+500) is the only player even within smelling distance of him. That’s pretty easy to justify. He just turned in the first 50/50 season in MLB history, and he won the MVP unanimously in a year where he didn’t throw a single pitch. He’ll be back on the mound in 2025, so he’s obviously live to win the award again.

Still, Ohtani’s massive price tag is creating value with some players a bit further down the board. Carroll is available at +2000, and he stands out as someone worth taking a flier on.

Carroll looked like a future MVP candidate in his first full Major League season. He racked up 25 homers and 54 stolen bases while batting .285 for the Diamondbacks. He propelled the team back to the postseason for the first time since 2017, and they ultimately made it all the way to the World Series.

Unfortunately, Carroll was unable to duplicate his success in 2024. His numbers were down virtually across the board, and the Diamondbacks ultimately failed to make it back to the postseason.

Still, there is plenty of reason to be optimistic about Carroll moving forward. His 2024 was a tale of two halves. He was dreadful in the first half of the season, posting a below-average 79 wRC+, but he completely turned things around in the second. He posted a 147 wRC+ after the All-Star break, which was one of the best marks in the NL over that timeframe.

Carroll’s batted-ball profile from the first half to the second half looks like two completely different players. His soft-contact rate dipped from 22.0% in the first half to 17.9% in the second, while his hard-contact rate nearly doubled (26.1% vs. 44.0%). He also hit far fewer ground balls, and the balls that he did put in the air turned into homers at a much higher frequency. Carroll had just five homers across his first 93 games last season, but he had 17 over his final 63.

The Diamondbacks probably won’t contend with the Dodgers this season, but they’re expected to be one of the “best of the rest” in the National League. If they can secure a playoff spot comfortably—and Carroll brings his second-half form to the batter’s box on Day 1—he’ll have a chance to threaten for the NL MVP. Ultimately, I’m willing to roll the dice at 20-1.

NBA Futures: A New Favorite Emerges

• by Matt LaMarca

Kel’el Ware to Win Rookie of the Year (+150; ESPNBet)

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but there’s a new leader in the clubhouse for NBA Rookie of the Year. This season was expected to be a rollercoaster from a rookie standpoint, and so far, it has not disappointed.

The top of the 2024 NBA Draft class was filled with projects like Zaccharie Risacher, Alex Sarr, and Tidjane Salaun, while the most pro-ready rookies landed in suboptimal spots. Guys like Reed Sheppard and Dalton Knecht were among the early favorites to win the Rookie of the Year, but they’ve struggled to find consistent playing time and shots for the Rockets and Lakers, respectively.

It’s left bettors as basically the human embodiment of the shrug emoji: they’re really not sure where to place their money.

We’ve seen a few different players emerge as the favorite in this market already this season. Jared McCain broke out for some huge games with Joel Embiid and Paul George sidelined, but he’s missed the past 23 games with an injury. That’s basically removed him from contention.

Every other favorite who has emerged since then has followed a similar path: Zach Edey, Stephon Castle, Yves Missi, and Jaylen Wells; they’ve all come and gone in the blink of an eye.

Kel’el Ware is the most recent name to emerge at the top of the leaderboard, and he’s currently available at +150 on BetESPN. While backing any favorite to win this award is a terrifying proposition, I think Ware is ultimately here to stay.

We can thank Jimmy Butler for that. Butler has become a massive headache for the Heat. He clearly wants to be traded, and the team has now suspended him on three separate occasions. It feels very likely that he’s played his final game for the team.

With Butler out of the picture, the team has gotten a bit creative with its lineup. Ware has started the past five games for the Heat alongside Bam Adebayo. That’s a big development. Ware and Adebayo technically play the same position, but they’re undoubtedly two of the best four or five players on the team. They simply don’t have enough talent to keep Ware on the sidelines despite the imperfect lineup fit.

In his five starts, Ware has averaged 14.6 points, 9.0 rebounds, 1.4 blocks, and 1.2 steals per game. He’s also been extremely efficient, knocking down 50.9% of his shots from the field, 43.5% from 3-point range, and 83.3% from the charity stripe.

At this point, Ware’s role in the rotation feels secure. He’s one of the few rookies who is actually producing at a high level when on the floor, so a lack of playing time is the only thing stopping him from running away with the hardware.

It’s possible that Ware will lose some minutes if/when the Heat trade Butler, but his days of playing less than 20 minutes off the bench are over. He’s simply too talented, and the Heat are in desperate need of producers.

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