🏆 MLB Awards Update

MLB Trivia — Shohei Ohtani could become just the second player to win an AL and NL MVP award. Who was the first? (answer in intro)

In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by Fantasy Life Magazine.

We’re approximately halfway through the marathon which is the MLB regular season. We still have a lot of baseball left to go, but we’re starting to see some favorites emerge in the awards market.

With that said, it’s a good time to take a look at the big four: AL and NL MVP and Cy Young. Who are the favorites, who are the contenders, and where should we be putting our money?

Offensively, some big names have emerged at the top of the leaderboard (all odds via FanDuel Sportsbook):

👨‍⚖️ AL MVP

• Aaron Judge (-140)

• Gunnar Henderson (+390)

• Bobby Witt Jr. (+500)

• Juan Soto (+550)

Judge is on pace for another monster season, racking up an absurd 30 homers through his first 80 games. He’s done that despite getting off to a slow start, homering just six times through 31 games in March and April. Since then, he’s rattled off 24 homers and a .379 batting average through his next 49 contests.

Judge is the deserving favorite, but I’m looking towards Henderson in this market. He’s not that far behind Judge in the traditional stats — his 26 homers are second in all of baseball — and he’s the AL leader in WAR. If the Orioles can surpass the Yankees in the standings, it wouldn’t be farfetched for voters to give him this award.

I’m also keeping my eye on Witt — my preseason pick at +1800 — but he and the Royals would have to go on a tear over the second half of the year.

🇯🇵 NL MVP

• Shohei Ohtani (-105)

• Bryce Harper (+200)

• Fernando Tatis (+950)

The NL is currently considered a two-man race, with Tatis a distant third at +950. The battle is between Ohtani and Harper, who have helmed the two best teams in the National League.

Ohtani is doing his damage solely as a hitter this season, but that still makes him one of the best players in baseball. He leads the NL in homers and WAR, putting him on pace to join Frank Robinson as the only multi-league MVPs in history.

Harper’s second in WAR in the NL, and his team has the best record at 53-27. Still, the Dodgers aren’t far behind, and it’s hard to imagine Harper catching him without a monster second half.

If I’m fading Ohtani, I’m much more willing to go down the odds board for a long shot. Someone like Marcel Ozuna — who trails only Harper in wRC+ for NL batters — at +2000 or better fits the bill.

🐅 AL Cy Young

• Tarik Skubal (+230)

• Corbin Burnes (+290)

• Tanner Houck (+750)

• Garrett Crochet (+950)

This is another award that feels like a two-man race, with Skubal and Burnes both checking all the boxes for a Cy Young winner. Crochet has pitched well enough to be in the discussion, but the fact that he plays for the worst team in baseball is going to hurt his case.

Skubal is the favorite, but I’m not sure he’s favored by enough. He ranks in the top three in the AL in ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts, and he’s also tied for second in wins. No other pitcher in baseball matches that criteria.

He did hit a slight blip a few weeks ago, but he’s officially righted the ship. He shut out the Phillies over seven innings in his last outing, and if he dominates again in his next start, this could end up being your last chance to buy in.

🎡 NL Cy Young

• Zach Wheeler (+250)

• Tyler Glasnow (+350)

• Ranger Suarez (+390)

• Chris Sale (+800)

• Max Fried (+1000)

This award feels a bit more open in the NL, even if the current odds don’t reflect it. Wheeler, Glasnow, and Suarez are packed tightly, with the two Braves’ hurlers also getting some respect.

Fading Wheeler for Glasnow and Suarez is my preferred way to attack this market. Suarez has the lead in most of the rate stats — ERA, WHIP, and WAR — while Glasnow is the top strikeout merchant. Wheeler is somewhere between three and five in most categories, and he doesn’t even crack the top 10 in terms of bWAR.

Of course, betting on futures isn’t the only way to attack the MLB market. There’s a full slate of games available for Friday, and I’ve highlighted my favorite bets for that slate as well.

👑 The King’s crowning achievement? LeBron James and his son will become the first father-son duo to play in the NBA at the same time.

🚂 All aboard the Knicks bandwagon. The betting action has been fast and furious since acquiring Mikal Bridges.

🤯 These parlays keep getting crazier and crazier. Two correct score props and a no-homer bet?

5️⃣ He’s no Ron Burgundy, but Ron Holland did go fifth in the NBA draft. His odds of cracking the top five were insane! 

🗽 The Mets absolutely dominated the first round of the Subway Series. Everyone already knows who to thank.

⛳ No one got offended at the first Presidential debate … until golf came up. One pro wants to help settle the issue.

⚽ The Copa America rolled on this week. The USA hit a big road bump against Panama in Game 2.

🏈 They’re not just for the bedroom anymore. Overzet breaks down his favorite RB handcuffs for best ball.

The UFC’s International Fight Week concludes with UFC 303, headlined by one of the most anticipated rematches of the year. Alex “Poatan” Pereira makes the walk on short notice to defend his light-heavyweight title against former champion Jiri Prochazka. The 13-fight card has been shuffled around due to injuries, but the changes have also opened up some new betting opportunities. Mark Drumheller breaks down his most confident bets for UFC 303. 

🇨🇿 Prochazka ML (+120; BetMGM) 

You don’t need the sportsbooks to tell you that this fight is going to end with one of the combatants going out on their shield. 

From a technical standpoint, Pereira’s advantages from the first fight are still very much in play. He is one of the best kickboxers in the game and will snap off devastating calf kicks in an effort to take the bounce out of Prochazka’s offense. Pereira may size him up for another crushing left hook, but I still see this as closer to a coin-flip fight. 

As much as this feels like I’m betting against Patrick Mahomes, the value with Prochazka at +120 versus anybody is too good to pass up. He was having success in the first fight, and the opportunity for extended grappling success will always be there against Pereira. 

Prochazka has been very vocal about this fight being about much more than the belt. He is out to prove that his “Samurai” style is championship material. It’s a short-notice fight where minor adjustments could be the difference. I don’t think Pereira wins this fight at the 59% clip that the implied odds suggest, so I have to take the plus-money with the dog. Bet the Samurai takes one back, and get ready to bet on the trilogy!

🥊 Machado Garry ML (-140, BetMGM) 

Ian Machado Garry’s unanimous decision win over Geoff Neal didn’t deliver many highlights but showed the discipline and maturity that will benefit him in a big way against Michael “Venom” Page. 

Machado Garry’s willingness to fight strategically gives me a lot of confidence he can win rounds in this matchup. Both fighters excel at using their length to dictate range, but Machado Garry has the tools to easily exploit Page’s vulnerability to leg kicks. I expect Machado Garry to systematically stifle Page’s offense by attacking his legs, mixing in combinations, and tying Page up against the fence. 

In a fight expected to go the distance, the fighter with the volume edge holds a significant advantage. I want my money on Machado Garry. The undefeated contender averages 6.27 significant strikes per minute compared to only 3.14 from Page.