🌳 The Masters: Scheffler vs the Swarm

You come at the King, you best not miss.

In today’s Betting Life Newsletter, presented by The Rundown AI:

The Masters is to golf bettors what Burning Man is to the non-societal inclined: a religious experience. Bankroll management at Augusta typically goes out the window — as does sanity as we all try to chase our favorite names and make cases for players who perhaps don’t deserve them. 

How do I bet the Masters? I’m no different. We have a small, elite field in play and some very strict trends to go off (many of which I outlined in our Monday Newsletter), but I’ll always find a few extra units for my favorite players this week. 

This season, though, those players may have an even harder time finding the winner’s circle than usual, as we have a favorite in Scottie Scheffler that has been bet down as low as +375 at certain shops. That’s the kind of number we used to see on Tiger Woods in his prime, and it’s not a development that we should casually brush off as bettors.

The betting favorites at this event have not done well (Woods was the last betting favorite to win the Masters back in 2005), but that doesn’t mean Scheffler can’t or won’t win. And if you’re betting against him (like me), you need to be prepared for that inevitably.

I’ll get into how I’m approaching the outright and placement markets later on, but for now, let’s start by highlighting a few specialty bets in less liquid markets where we don’t have to worry about King Scottie and can potentially find better value and similar upside to chase. 

👰 Adam Schenk Top Debutant (+2200; DraftKings)

We have a strong crop of Masters rookies, with Swede Ludvig Aberg leading the charge. Aberg could very well be the betting favorite at this event next season (he’s that good), but his around-the-green (ATG) game has been an issue recently. That could lead to big problems around Augusta’s notoriously tight and hilly lies.

Schenk beat Aberg last week at the Valero (T5 to T14) and has been sharp tee to green of late, having gained over 2.0 strokes ATG at the Valspar and PLAYERS. He’s solid off the tee, and with his ball-striking as a whole taking a tick up in his last start, he feels live to at least push the more talented players in this category. 

You can bet Schenk as an each-way with a top 4 placing bet included (which I love doing) on Bet365, but at +2200, he’s plenty big enough to play as an outright in this market as well.

🔨 Thorbjorn Olesen Top 40 (-105; DraftKings)

• Top Scandinavian (+600; bet365)

Another player who caught my eye last week at the Valero was Danish pro Thorbjorn Olesen, who finished T6 at Augusta back in 2013 (his debut). 

Olesen last played Augusta back in 2019 (T21) and this season will mark his fourth appearance at the event. The Dane gained entry this season via a special exemption for his exemplary play on the DP World Tour, where he’s won twice over the last year. He stopped a string of three missed cuts at the Valero last week, finishing T14 while gaining 5.5 strokes around the greens (and 3.7 strokes on approach).

Olesen is the kind of player who can ride momentum like that into bigger finishes down the road, and his top 40 prices look very fair. If you want more exposure to him, he’s also +600 on Bet365 to be the top Scandinavian. Considering the favorites in that category are the out-of-form Viktor Hovland and the inexperienced Aberg, that price on Olesen seems a little high, given his form and overall talent level. 

🐯 Tiger Woods to Make the Cut (-115; DraftKings)

I don't know about you, but I don’t mind taking -115 on the greatest player ever to hit a golf ball to make the cut at an event where he’s made said cut 23 times in a row. The circumstances are far different with Woods now than they were in his prime — or even four years ago — but Big Cat has made it clear that he isn't here to be a ceremonial starter. 

Woods can also break the record for consecutive cuts made at Augusta this week just by finishing in the top 50 after round two, and I don’t have the heart to root or bet against him. 

🙏 Make the Cut Parlay (+956; DraftKings)

• Taylor Moore, Adam Schenk, Thorbjorn Olesen, Lucas Glover and Stephan Jaeger to make the cut

Let’s get a little weird to end things off. The Masters is one of the smallest fields of the season and includes amateur players and past their prime-former champions. With the top 50 players and ties all making the cut after round two, the top pros must work extra hard to miss out on the weekend.

While we could go for some “potential” weather correlation and wave stack in a multi-leg bet like this (AM or PM starters only), I built using what I perceived as the best values under -200 over at DraftKings.

All of these players are in solid form and are coming off confidence-inducing starts — with a couple of them (Olesen and Glover) also having solid experience to lean on at this event. Let’s ride that form and their solid odds and see if we can’t hit a big bet to get some momentum going for ourselves into the weekend.

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🏀 Make-or-break games on the hardwood on Wednesday. Best bets for today’s NBA slate.

⚾ March of the Pinstripes? This stat bodes well for people with Yankees futures.

🧢 Speaking of baseball … we’ve got a full slate of bets for Wednesday.

⛹️‍♀️ Anything you can do, I can do better. Women’s basketball was Queen for viewers this season.

💰 UConn pays for the Prez. @Stoolpresidente took down a big futures bet in the Championship game.

🦌 Avert your eyes, Bucks fans. Giannis avoided an Achilles tear but will be out for at least a week.

🏒 Different sport, but another big loss. Connor McDavid is out for at least a game and potentially more.

👶 Keep the engine running. Could a new baby derail the betting favorite at Augusta?

⛳ In case you missed it the first time. The betting trends you need to know for Augusta.

Now for the main event. With the appetizer out of the way, I’ve highlighted my best outright bets for the week. With such a dominating favorite, I don’t think going heavy in the to-win market is the greatest approach, but both these players have shown significant upside in their tee-to-green games in 2024, and one is also an appealing placement bet at his current odds...

🗾 Hideki Matsuyama Outright (+2000; FanDuel)

Matsuyama has seen some big movement in his betting odds already. He was still available at +2500 on Monday but is no bigger than +2000 as of writing. While the shorter number may hold less appeal for bettors, the movement is not necessarily a bad sign for his chances. Several recent Masters winners have seen their betting odds shrink leading into the event, and at +2000 or lower, Matsuyama is now in a range where six of the past 10 Masters winners have closed at (+2000 or shorter). 

Part of the reason for this movement is that it’s hard to find a flaw big enough to want to bet against Matsuyama. He’s a past champion who won this event back in 2021 (after they lengthened certain areas of the course) and has finished no worse than T16 in each of the last four Masters. He’s also playing some of the best tee-to-green golf of his life. Over his last five starts, he’s gained over 3.0 strokes around the green four times and has finished no worse than T12 in his final four pre-Augusta starts (a run that includes a win at Riviera).

We also have a great recent comp for Matsuyama winning again this year in Bubba Watson. Watson won his first green jacket in 2012, suffered through the pangs of the defending champions' duties in 2013, and then put together a strong lead-in to this event (similar to Matsuyama’s) in 2014, which ended with green jacket number two. I think there is a great chance Matsuyama’s 2024 run ends much the same way Watson’s did, and for that reason, I still see him as very much worth playing at this shortened price. 

💪🏾 Tony Finau Outright (+4000; FanDuel) 

• Top 5: +700

• Top 10: +330

Four players have won at Augusta over the past decade with closing odds of +3000 or bigger (Garcia ‘17, Reed ‘18, Willett ‘15, and Matsuyama ‘21). There are plenty of intriguing names in that range this week (Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau, and Cameron Smith to name a few), but the best target has to be Tony Finau. 

Finau quite simply checks all the boxes. The 34-year-old has had a great lead-in, landing multiple top-10 finishes over the last four months, and was a strong T2 in his final start in Houston (matching Scheffler for the week). His statistical output from this season matches what several recent winners achieved on their lead-in to Augusta, and his course experience is the type we crave at this event (T10 in 2018, T5 in 2019 + final pairing on Sunday, T10 in 2021). 

Despite the vastly superior lead-in from Finau, he’s still available at +4000, a much better price than what he went off at last year when he closed at +2500 or lower at some sportsbooks.  That’s the kind of market divergence I like taking advantage of personally and one that makes laddering him in the top 5 and top 10 markets far more appealing as well.