😲 How Many Points Is Too Many?

All dogs are good dogs… but maybe not the big Week 11 underdogs???

In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by GameBlazers:

As of writing (Wed. 11/15 10 pm ET), we have five NFL games this week with spreads of more than seven points.

• Cowboys -10.5 at Panthers

• Lions -7.5 to -8.5 vs. Bears

• Dolphins -12.5 to -13.5 vs. Raiders

• Commanders -9 to -9.5 vs. Giants

• 49ers -11.5 to -12 vs. Buccaneers

Here are some of my thoughts on each of these games.

🤠 Cowboys -10.5 at Panthers

The big question to ask yourself is this: Will the Cowboys win this game?

It’s hard to see how they won’t.

In their six wins this year, the Cowboys have an average point differential of +25.5; in their three losses, -16.3.

The Cowboys are hot and cold, but when they’re hot they’re downright scalding. As favorites, they’re 6-1 ATS (63.3% ROI, per Action Network).

Compare that to the Panthers, who have a -11.4 point differential in their eight losses and as underdogs are 2-6-1 ATS (-46.5% ROI).

I’m not sure I’d bet on the Cowboys at the current number: I have a lookahead bet on them at -8.5, which is in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker. But I am sure of this: I have zero desire to back the Panthers at almost any price we’re likely to see.

🦁 Lions -7.5 to -8.5 vs. Bears

Now that this number has moved down from its high of -10, it is comfortably positioned in the Wong teaser zone.

The Lions have gracefully matured from scrappy upstarts to imposing dominators. In their seven wins this year, they have a +10.9 point differential.

Throughout his Lions tenure, HC Dan Campbell has been a cover machine — a true man of the degenerates — and this year he has led the team to a league-best 7-2 ATS (47.9% ROI).

• Dan Campbell With Lions: 30-13 ATS (33.4% ROI)

• Dan Campbell at Home: 16-5 ATS (46.3% ROI)

• Dan Campbell in Division: 11-2 ATS (61.2% ROI)

• Dan Campbell at Home in Division: 6-0 ATS (91.6% ROI)

Bears QB Justin Fields (thumb) could be rusty after missing the past four games. 

I’m likely to take the Lions down to -1.5 or -2.5 if I can find other teaser legs I like.

🐬 Dolphins -12.5 to -13.5 vs. Raiders

The Dolphins are basically the AFC version of the Cowboys: In six wins, they have a +18.2 point differential, but in three losses, -16.3.

They’re 5-0 ATS (90.6% ROI) as favorites. They’re coming off the bye. And they’re at home, where QB Tua Tagovailoa is 16-5 ATS (45.6% ROI) for his career. 

The Raiders are coming off back-to-back home wins in interim HC Antonio Pierce’s first two games. Pessimism is warranted.

I wouldn’t bet on the Dolphins at the current number, but I did bet them in the lookahead market at -9.5.

🪖 Commanders -9 to -9.5 vs. Giants

In the three games in which QB Tommy DeVito has appeared, the Giants are 0-2-1 ATS (-66.7% ROI) with a -19.7 point differential.

Say whatever you want about the Commanders, but QB Sam Howell leads the league with 2,783 yards passing. He’s at least an NFL QB. DeVito isn’t.

It’s almost embarrassing to admit, but I have a bet on the Commanders at -9.5.

⛏️ 49ers -11.5 to -12 vs. Buccaneers

WR Deebo Samuel exited Week 6 after just nine snaps with an injury, and he missed Weeks 7-8 but then returned to action after the Week 9 bye.

In Samuel’s six full games, the 49ers are 5-1 ATS (59.4% ROI) with a +21.7 point differential. In the other three games, they’re 0-3 ATS (-100% ROI) with a -7 differential.

As I mentioned in my Week 11 fantasy favorites article, QB Brock Purdy is No. 1 in AY/A (9.6), composite EPA + CPOE (0.199, RBs Don’t Matter), and QBR (76.4, per ESPN). Those are MVP-caliber numbers.

As long as Purdy has his full complement of playmakers and plays with elite efficiency, a number north of -10 is reasonable. I probably won’t bet it — but it’s justified.

Our friends at The Hammer Betting Network have been adding their favorite Week 11 bets to our Free Bet Tracker. Here’s one of the latest courtesy of Hitman…

Jason Scavone from Unabated highlights the importance of QB ratings…

See you next season, Deshaun Watson.

Now what do you do with the Browns?

Power ratings are an essential part of the handicapping process for anyone who wants to try to come up with their own number on a game. 

If you didn’t catch our earlier piece on power ratings, it works like this: You assign every team a rating. Then you calculate home-field advantage, either a blanket one for all teams, or individually by team. 

Subtract the underdog from the favorite, factor in home field, and you have your line for the game. If you think the Chiefs are worth +6, the Eagles are worth +5, and home-field advantage at Arrowhead is worth +1.5, you end up with Kansas City -2.5 (once you put a minus sign in front of the +2.5). The Chiefs’ 6 minus the Eagles’ 5 lands you at KC -1. In Kansas City, that becomes Chiefs -2.5.

Team-based power ratings are just that. Team-based. That Chiefs number assumes Patrick Mahomes is playing. What happens if Mahomes breaks his leg filming a dance for Jackson Mahomes’ TikTok on Saturday night? How do you quantify the dropoff from Mahomes to Blaine Gabbert? (Other than “off a cliff”?)

That’s where QB ratings come in. 

The Massey-Peabody power ratings, devised by Rufus Peabody and Cade Massey, would have had the Browns favored by about 5.5 over the Steelers in Cleveland. 

But that was before Watson was out for the season. Going from Watson to a backup downgrades the Browns from a team rated at about 3.5 to -1.

The consensus line in the market is a pick’em. It opened at Cleveland -4.

You can see it play out with other teams that have been forced to make quarterback changes this year.

Daniel Jones was worth 0.05 to the Giants coming into Week 5. Tyrod Taylor was basically a lateral move at 0.08. The Tommy DeVito era wasn’t great for the Giants. He was rated at -6.19, and the spread in Week 10 reflected it with Dallas opening as a 16-point favorite. A team that would have been merely lousy with Jones or Taylor under center was now a disaster. 

The dropoff for the Jets in Week 1 with Aaron Rodgers (1.45) to Week 2 when they were forced to start Zach Wilson (-2.36) shows just how big an impact losing a starting QB can have. (It also shows how lousy New York football is overall.)

Consider this week, where the Jets are a 7-point underdog in Buffalo. If a healthy Rodgers were starting instead of Wilson, you might see Bills -3 or -3.5. 

Being able to quantify the difference between a first-string QB and his backup will help you in weeks like this where there’s a lot of uncertainty in the market. And it will help you plan ahead so you know how to react if the market starts moving in the future. If Mac Jones is benched, you can pounce on mispriced numbers if you’re confident in Bailey Zappe’s value to the line.

It also comes into play when you’re considering futures bets. A tool like the Unabated NFL Season Simulator lets you adjust individual QB values so you can really dial prices for futures. 

You already know QB is the most important position on the field. Put a number on just how important and you’ll be in position to attack lines with precision while everyone else is fumbling to ballpark their numbers.

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Week 11 kicks off TONIGHT with a marquee AFC North matchup between the Bengals and Ravens. Matt LaMarca is here to break it all down from a betting angle…

This should be a good one. The Ravens might just be the best team in football, while the Bengals are arguably a top-five squad with a healthy Joe Burrow. This matchup has massive implications in the uber-competitive AFC North, so it’s a borderline must-win for both sides.

The Ravens are currently listed -3.5 home favorites, while the total sits at 46.0.

Let’s take a look at some of my TNF favorite wagers.

💰 Best Bet: Over 46.0 (-110; FanDuel)

Betting the over in primetime games has been akin to lighting money on fire this season. The under is 25-7, and we’ve had 11 straight Thursday, Sunday, and Monday Night Football contests go under.

This isn’t a new phenomenon either. The under has been particularly profitable in 2023, but primetime unders are now 150-91-3 since the start of the 2019-20 season.

So why an over in this spot?

The main reason is that these offenses are simply really good. Burrow looks completely healthy following a Week 7 bye, and the Bengals are third in Offensive EPA over that time frame.

The Ravens’ offense is also starting to fire on all cylinders under Todd Monken. They’ve scored at least 31 points in four straight games, and that production has come against some strong defensive competition.

Ultimately, I think this is the game that finally ends the under streak.

💰 Top Prop: Tyler Boyd Over 4.5 receptions (+115; BetMGM)

When I saw this prop on Wednesday, I nearly spit out my coffee. We have Boyd projected for 5.5 receptions, and he’s coming off a 12-target, eight-catch performance last week. Tee Higgins is still sidelined, so why is this prop available at better than even money?!?

I’m certainly not complaining. Boyd had a 31% target share sans Higgins in Week 10, so I’m happy to go right back to the well vs. the Ravens. It’s a tougher matchup – Baltimore is second in defensive EPA – but Boyd’s targets are typically in the short-to-intermediate areas. In other words, he should still rack up catches, even if he isn’t quite as productive with them as last week.

💰 Same-Game Parlay (+1300; BetMGM)

• Bengals ML

• Over 46.5

• Boyd 45+ receiving yards

• Burrow 2+ touchdown passes

• Gus Edwards anytime TD

I’m going to start this week’s SGP by pairing Over 46.5 and the Ravens moneyline. I’m a bit conflicted on the spread, but I do think the Ravens should be able to win this game at home. We’re sacrificing a bit of potential upside by not laying the points, but this is a rare instance where I think the moneyline makes more sense than the spread.

After that, I’m adding in the over on 45 receiving yards for Boyd and at least two touchdown passes for Burrow. Burrow has at least two TDs in five straight games, and we’re going to need some scoring from the Bengals if this game is going to go over.

Next, let’s dive into the Ravens’ rushing attack. I think they’re going to have success in this spot, even if it’s tough to pinpoint who will have that success. One certainty is that Edwards is the locked-in goal-line back. He should get the touches from inside the five-yard line, making him a strong anytime TD choice to pair with the Ravens ML.