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⚾ Major League Monday
MLB and NHL picks for April Fools
Mark Twain said it best: “Better a witty fool than a foolish bettor.”
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by Poker Now.
NHL Breakdown: A +315 SGP for Tampa Bay
NCAA: Clark, LSU, Again
MLB Preview: Pound the Braves
It’s 4/1. Take it away, Geoff Ulrich…
I’ve never been a huge April Fools fan. If you’re going to make a day all about us humans pulling practical jokes on each other, how about making it an official holiday as well? Nobody is getting anything done when they have to look over their shoulder all day for that one sketchy co-worker who specializes in taking gags too far.
Luckily for us bettors, sports have a way of making us look like fools every day anyway. How else do we explain sequences like this from the world’s best golfer? That said, I’m happy to continue being a fool because sports are awesome, and the fact that we can bet (legally) on all these crazy teams and events, day in and day out, makes me happy.
So bring it on, April Fools, there is nothing we (battle-hardened bettors) haven’t seen before.
For our daily dose of humility this Monday, we are looking into ways to extract some big returns from the NHL, and Matt LaMarca will search for value inside the MLB slate.
Brayden Point anytime goalscorer
TB Lightning -1.5: Puck Line
I like the Lightning tonight. They’re taking on the Red Wings, who have regressed hard in the second half of the season and have gone 0-2-2 in their last four games. Tonight, they’ll face a Lightning team that is 23-9 straight-up at home this year and has covered the puck line in seven of their last nine games.
I also like Brayden Point to score a goal. Point has been unreal for the Lightning since 2023 ended. In the 34 games he’s played since January 1st, he’s scored in 19 of them (55% hit rate) and enters having lit the lamp 10 times over the Lightning’s last eight games. Detroit has also allowed the ninth most goals to the center position this year, and Point scored five times against the Wings in four meetings last season.
While there is value in betting Point for an anytime goal at +150 (40% implied probability), these two bets have a strong correlation. With a weaker opponent in the Red Wings, the extra variance in an SGP is worth taking.
Brayden Point HIGHER 0.5 goals
Artemi Panerin HIGHER 0.5 goals
One other way to get exposure to Point’s upside tonight? Go to Underdog Fantasy, choose the HIGHER on Point’s goal total, and make yourself a Pick’em lineup. Once there, we can combine Point with another stud’s HIGHER in Artemi Panerin, who just so happens to play the Penguins today, a team he scored twice against just over two weeks ago. Panerin is only six goals away from 50 on the season, a mark he’s yet to hit over his nine-year career. He’s also been on fire of late, having landed six goals over his last six games.
The increased payouts on these two goal picks get us a solid 4.68x multiplier, which is juicy for a simple 2-way play.
Only three of the Kraken’s last 14 games have seen the game total get past 6.0 goals. Overall, they went 8-6 to the under in March and are 20-14 to the under in road games this season.
Outside of two crazy lopsided wins, this short-lived series between Seattle and San Jose has also been an over-bettor’s worst nightmare. Six of the eight meetings have seen five goals or fewer, and five of the eight have seen four goals or fewer. The Kraken’s offense has also been colder than a playoff game at Lambeau Field lately, as Seattle enters this contest having averaged just 2.0 goals per game in March (14 games). After getting shut out by the Stars over the weekend, they have scored one goal or less in 57% of their last 14 games.
The Sharks’ offense showed some life their last time out, scoring four times against St. Louis, but Seattle has allowed the sixth-fewest high-danger chances this year. With the total still hovering at a flat 6.0 at some books, the under on this late game looks appealing enough to bet, even if we have to take shorter odds.
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🏀 The NBA playoff race is heating up. Best bets for Monday’s games.
🐺 Can anyone beat UConn? The Huskies’ current odds to win it all say that’s unlikely.
🐶 Underdogs, assemble. The Wolfpack’s pre-tourney odds allowed them to join an exclusive club of past Final Four participants.
⛳ Jaeger vs Goliath. There was a big-time upset on the PGA as Scottie Scheffler’s putting woes flared up again.
💜 Call of the Vikings? After he posted a solid pro day, Minnesota is the favorite to draft this QB.
🔥 The picks in our FREE Discord have been on fire. Join here if you’re looking for more NCAA and Golf bets.
Baseball season is upon us, and it didn’t take long for some surprises to pop up. The Yankees, Brewers, Pirates, and Tigers all swept their opening series, while the Astros, Mets, Marlins, and White Sox are all still looking to get in the win column.
Do we have more surprises in store for Monday? Matt LaMarca breaks down his best bets…
Look, betting on a team at -300 is not particularly sexy. Very rarely is laying odds like this something to consider in baseball, but in this case, I’m willing to make an exception. -300 translates to an implied probability of 75.0%, and I think the true odds of the Braves picking up a win vs. the White Sox in this spot are significantly higher.
The Braves are arguably the best team in baseball, while the White Sox might be the worst. They managed just eight runs in their first three games – tied with the Mets for the worst mark in the league – and they’re not going to be able to out-pitch the Braves. Charlie Morton will get the start for Atlanta (3.64 ERA in 2023), and he’s just plain better than Chris Flexen (6.86 ERA, 6.20 xERA). The Braves had the best offense in baseball in 2023, so they should be able to do significant damage in this matchup.
You could always play the Braves on the run line (-1.5) at -165, but the -300 is the better pure value.
The Royals are coming off an 11-0 win on Sunday, and they’re in a good spot to start their new series vs. the Orioles on a high note. They’ll send Michael Wacha to the mound, who has become a rock-solid starter. He’s pitched to an ERA of 3.32 or better in back-to-back years and has thrown at least 127.1 innings in both campaigns.
The Orioles are the better team overall, but they’ll be at a pitching disadvantage with Dean Kremer on the bump. Kremer won a rotation job in spring by default after injuries hindered his competition, and he posted just a 4.97 xERA in 2023. The Royals look like live dogs in this spot.