Loser Goes Home?

A must-win matchup between Alabama and Tennessee

October 19, 2024

Oct. 19, 2024
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The Big Ten took center stage last week, and boy, they did not disappoint. We had two absolute bangers, with Penn State squeaking past USC in overtime to improve to 6-0 and Oregon knocking off Ohio State in Eugene.

The Oregon-Ohio State game had the feel of a heavyweight showdown, and these programs didn’t disappoint. Oregon ultimately used a bit of rule-bending to secure the win, while the Buckeyes did nothing to change the reputation. Wake me up when they actually win a big game.

Matt LaMarca

The expanded playoff format means that OSU will likely get in this season, but it’s going to need to avoid any massive surprises down the stretch. That’s easier said than done.

Both Tennessee and Alabama are well aware of that fact. They’ve each dropped a game to an unranked opponent in recent weeks, which sets up a massive head-to-head showdown in Week 8. The winner officially has their CFB playoff chances back on track; the loser will probably need some help.

Alabama is still listed at -330 to make the playoffs on FanDuel, and with a big win over Georgia under their belts, the Crimson Tide can probably still get in with two losses. But the Volunteers are down to +100, and they have a date with Georgia looming on their schedule.

It sets up one of the most important showdowns of the year. This almost feels like a playoff game before the playoffs. If Tennessee is going to live up to preseason expectations, it has to find a way to beat either Alabama or Georgia. With this week’s game being at home, this appears the more likely spot to do so.

That game highlights a must-see week of college football. There are too many good games to list just three, so let’s hit on the top four rapid-fire style.

What else is in today’s newsletter?

  1. The best college games for your viewing pleasure on Saturday

  2. Thor Nystrom’s best bets for CFB Week 8

  3. Watercooler: Could the World Series turn into a Subway Series?

CFB WEEK 8

The Casual Fan’s Guide to College Football Week 8

by Matt LaMarca

Nebraska at Indiana (-6.5)—Noon ET on Fox

The Hoosiers are 6-0 for the first time since 1967, though they haven’t had to navigate a particularly tough schedule. Still, 6-0 is 6-0, and if they can get the job done vs. Nebraska, they’re going to start generating some playoff buzz.

The hype is already starting to build, with the College GameDay crew headed to Bloomington for this Big Ten showdown. Dylan Raiola and his weird Patrick Mahomes cosplay are also coming, and at 5-1, this will be Indiana’s toughest test of the early season. Nebraska will be looking for its first win vs. a ranked opponent in 25 games, so the stakes are high for both squads.

Miami (-5.0) at Louisville—Noon ET on ABC

Who doesn’t love a rivalry game? This contest will be for the Schnellenberger Trophy, which honors the historic coach who led both universities to success. It’s a beauty.

This game is of major significance for the Hurricanes, who are looking to win the ACC for the first time. I almost can’t believe that. Miami obviously hasn’t been as good since joining the conference in 2004, but going more than 20 years without a crown feels downright criminal.

This is one of the toughest games remaining on their schedule, so if they can pick up the win in Louisville, they’re in good shape to get the job done.

Georgia at Texas (-5.0)—7:30 p.m. ET on ABC

In most weeks, this game would be a slam-dunk choice for the top game on the slate. It honestly still might be. After all, this is a top-5 showdown between two of the best teams in the SEC, which remains the best conference in football.

That said, the stakes don’t feel as high as Alabama-Tennessee. Texas is undefeated, so a loss would barely impact their playoff chances. The Bulldogs did already lose to Alabama, but a two-loss season to Texas and Bama still gets them in the playoffs. Their margin of error would be gone in that scenario—making their matchups vs. Ole Miss and Tennessee appointment television—but both of these teams are in good shape currently. Still, this should be a really entertaining contest between two elite programs.

Alabama (-3.0) at Tennessee—3:30 p.m. ET on ABC

The Week 8 crown jewel. Tennessee is a team I’ve enjoyed all season, with Nico Iamaleava establishing himself as an early Heisman Trophy candidate. Unfortunately, he’s been below that standard recently, so he needs a big bounceback vs. the Crimson Tide. Alabama will also be looking to get the bad taste out of its mouth after dropping an awful game against Vanderbilt.

This matchup sets up as strength vs. strength. Tennessee has a top-2 defense nationally, while Alabama has a top-10 offense. Only time will tell which side reigns supreme.

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AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

☕️ Rise and grind. The Week 8 College Football Pregame Show kicks off Saturday at 10 a.m. ET.

🏀 From the logo! Sabrina Ionescu puts the Liberty one win away from their first WNBA Championship.

⚾ They are inevitable. The Dodgers and Yankees appear poised for a collision in the World Series, with the two becoming overwhelming favorites in the betting market.

💰 We all need more winners in our lives. Freedman’s best bets for NFL Week 7.

📝 The NBA season—and fantasy basketball season—starts on Tuesday. Our team has done your research for you.

CFB BETS

Best Bets for College Football Week 8

by Thor Nystrom

Below is one of my best bets for this weekend in College Football Week 8, which is a mix of picks on the spread and player props.

Because the College Football betting market moves so quickly, I input my bets immediately—as they happen—into our college football free bets tracker. I can’t recommend highly enough that you bookmark that page, so you can get the best lines before they move.

Note: “Adjusted Thor Line” is my model's spread. For a much deeper dive into that system, there's a full college football game model based on my projections. 

Onto the picks!

Texas vs. Georgia 

Note: Georgia is expected to be without All-SEC linebacker Smael Mondon again when it faces No. 1 Texas on Saturday.

It's still unclear when Mondon, who has missed the last two games, will be back as he works back from a foot issue.

The public is still giving the Bulldogs credit for the teams they were the past few years, and not the team they are now.

The Bulldogs have lost five straight games ATS. During that stretch, Georgia lost to Alabama, should have lost to Kentucky, and, last week, only beat a dead-on-arrival Mississippi State team by 10.

Offensively, Georgia struggles to run the ball. So the offense has skewed to a hyper-pass ethos—the Bulldogs are one of the 15 most pass-happy teams on running downs in the nation. In the last four games—against SEC opponents—Georgia QB Carson Beck has posted a measly 8/5 TD/INT rate. 

Beck’s numbers have been propped up by quick-hitting passes near the line of scrimmage. When forced outside of that—as he has in games over the past month—he has struggled. 

Texas boasts the best pass defense in the nation. Per SP+, the Longhorns’ pass defense ranks top-2 in passing success rate, yards per dropback, EPA/dropback, adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A), passing marginal explosiveness, and yards per successful dropback. 

For these reasons, we like the over on Beck’s 0.5 interception prop.

On the other side of the ball, Georgia’s defense has regressed—the pass defense in particular. The Bulldogs’ pass defense ranks outside the top 65 in every single statistical category I mentioned in the paragraph above. 

Last week, against a non-threatening Mississippi State offense starting true freshman QB Michael Van Buren Jr.—forced into action following the season-ending injury to Blake Shapen—Georgia allowed 8.3 YPA and over 300 passing yards. Two weeks before that, Alabama QB Jalen Milroe went 27-for-33 for 374 yards and 2 TDs against Georgia.

Ewers’ 2024 season has, thus far, been interrupted by an injury. But last year, in games Ewers started and finished, he went over this passing total in 9-of-10 games (the only exception was a blowout win over Wyoming in which he threw only 21 passes as Texas deflated the ball with its run game).

Ewers projects to shred this Georgia defense, while Beck projects to struggle. Our numbers say this line is short. Our handicap suggests it’s even shorter. We like Texas by double digits.

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