🕺 The Last Dance

Playoff football is almost here …

In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by the Betting Life YouTube Channel:

If you look across the internet, it’s easy to find various “playoff pictures” that predict each NFL team’s chances of making the playoffs.

• NFL Network (Next Gen Stats)

• New York Times

• ESPN

Our friends at Unabated have an NFL Season Simulator that allows users to upload data and play out 10,000 seasons.

Based on an Unabated simulation using my power ratings (after adjusting for Week 18 injuries and projected rest situations), home-field advantage values, and QB ATS values — and also taking into account the results of the Saturday games — here are my projections for each team’s chances of making the postseason, along with a few notes.

🤔 NFC Postseason Odds

• Locked In: 49ers, Cowboys, Lions, Eagles, Rams

• Eliminated: Bears, Giants, Commanders, Cardinals, Panthers

• Probably In: Buccaneers (67.5%), Packers (65.0%)

• Probably Out: Saints (27.8%), Seahawks (25.3%), Falcons (11.8%), Vikings (2.6%)

Notes

• The Bucs control their destiny and will secure the NFC South with a victory — but sharp money has moved against them this week.

• The Packers “should” be able to beat the Bears to make the postseason … but I (and other bettors) like Bears +3.

• The Saints will make the playoffs with a win over the Falcons and some help, but as favorites they’re 6-6 ML with a league-worst -3.0 units (-24.8%, per Action Network).

• The Seahawks are favored this week — but Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is 17-22-1 ML (26.0% ROI) and 24-14-2 ATS (21.3% ROI) as an underdog for his career.

🤷‍♂️ AFC Postseason Odds

• Locked In: Ravens, Dolphins, Chiefs, Texans, Browns

• Eliminated: Colts, Broncos, Bengals, Raiders, Jets, Titans, Chargers, Patriots

• Probably In: Steelers (73.5%), Bills (70.4%)

• Borderline: Jaguars (56.0%)

Notes

• The Jaguars win the AFC South with a victory over the Titans but miss the playoffs with a loss. As an underdog of at least +3, Titans HC Mike Vrabel is 22-22 ML (59.4% ROI).

• The Steelers took care of business with their 17-10 win yesterday. Today, they need either the Bills to lose or the Jaguars to lose or tie. There’s a decent chance that one of those things happens.

• The Bills get the AFC East and No. 2 seed with a win over the Dolphins on SNF. With a tie, they can still make the postseason. With a loss, the Bills need the Jags to lose or tie. (I like Dolphins +3.)

For everything you need for Week 18 — including our inactives page, which will update shortly after 11:30 am ET with all of the relevant status updates — you can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.

See our suite of tools to get you ready for today’s slate below:

Every week, Matthew Freedman writes an article with five of his favorite player props. Here are a couple of them, which you can find (along with lots of other bets) in our 100% FREE bet tracker.

⬆️ Blake Grupe Over 1.5 FGs (-105, BetMGM)

• My Projection: 2.3

• Cutoff: 1.5 (-130)

I’m still working on a kicker model — because I’m a degenerate sicko.

I currently have four different methods for projecting FGs, and then I average them all together.

The lowest projection I have for Grupe is 2.2; the highest, 2.6.

This year, the average FG attempts per team per game is 2.0. The Saints have averaged 2.2, and the Falcons have allowed 2.4.

A lot of this bet has to do with the matchup: The Falcons are No. 3 in highest percentage of points allowed via FGs (34.2%; the league average is 23.2%).  

When Grupe faced the Falcons in Week 12, he hit season-high marks with six attempts and five FGs.

In an end-of-season divisional matchup that both teams want to win, I can see this turning into a kicking contest, especially since the spread is short (Saints -3).

💣 Josh Allen Over 0.5 INTs (-110, BetMGM)

• My Projection: -121

• Cutoff: -120

Allen has 16 INTs in 16 games.

Passing turnovers are a part of his game. You gotta take the bad with the good … and in all but three games he has thrown an INT.

One of those games was against the Dolphins in Week 4, when he threw for 320 yards and four TDs on just 25 attempts.

But the Dolphins didn’t have No. 1 CB Jalen Ramsey, who was out in Week 4 with a knee injury, and that game was in Buffalo, where Allen has been the best version of himself. On the road, though, he has 10 INTs in eight games with a pick in each contest (including the London game).

The Dolphins are dealing with significant injuries on defense and are without No. 2 CB Xavien Howard (foot), but they still have 10 INTs in nine games since Ramsey returned in Week 8.

In a high-leverage primetime road matchup, it’s not hard to project Allen for an INT.

Interested in more INT bets? Read on for another to target in Week 18.

Ed Feng is the proprietor of The Power Rank. This season, he’s 46-31 (+25.8 units) on INT Props. Here’s one of his INT bets for Week 18.

🐦 Kyler Murray Over 0.5 INTs (+104, Caesars)

Murray has been great with INTs since his return from injury. He has thrown only five picks, and his 2.1% INT rate is lower than the 2.3% NFL average.

However, INT rate is not the best way to predict future INTs. In my research, I've found that looking at INTs and passes defended (plays in which the defense gets a hand on the ball) is a better way to predict future INTs.

I call “bad balls” the sum of INTs and passes defended. This season, Murray has a bad ball rate of 15.4%, worse than the NFL average of 12.3%.

My model gives a 54.5% chance that he throws a pick against Seattle, which makes over 0.5 INTs a value at plus money.

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📊 Looking sharp isn’t just about how you dress. Where sharps are betting for Week 18.

👀 No wonder the Ravens lost yesterday: “The Spirit of Baltimore.”

🤞 There’s no such thing as luck. Especially if you bet based on luck rankings.

💰 Need more plays? That was rhetorical. We have them. For FREE.

👑 King Beyond the Wall: “We do not hedge.”

📺 Maybe the real treasure was the friends we made along the way. Join us LIVE as we cap off the season with Week 18 bets.

👀 Projections vs prop lines. Goff. Home. Yards.

✍️ The best Pick’em plays for Week 18. Banking on the Bills.

🥧 “You don’t score, until you score.” Touchdown bets for Week 18.

Welcome to Week 18 of Bets from the Group Chat, where I (Geoff Ulrich) elicit information from my Fantasy Life colleagues about their bets.

The group chat three-way parlay record moved to 5-8 on the year (+15.7 units) after we went 2-1 on our picks in Week 17.

As always, we have three separate plays from three different sources for our parlay below. If parlays aren’t your thing, we also have the weekly ladder bet as well. Good luck!

All bets are at BetMGM.

⬇️ Mark Drumheller Likes: Falcons Under 19.5 (-105) 

• Play to: -115

As Mark explains, the Saints-Falcons game screams boring, low-scoring affair.

“The Atlanta savior (Taylor Heinicke) went 19-of-30 with three picks last week against a decent Bears defense, and I'm betting we see more of that against a Saints defense that ranks top-five in EPA per play and rushing success rate allowed.”

📘 Matt LaMarca Likes: Michigan -4.5 (-105)

• Play to: 4.5 (-115)

From LaMarca himself: 

“Michigan has been a top-10 team on both sides of the ball, and they're arguably the best defense in the country. Washington's offense has yet to face a unit like this, and if they can't score 30+, I don't think they have a chance to cover.

🐻 Geoff Ulrich Likes: Justin Fields Over 27.5 Pass Attempts (-115)

• Projection: 31

• Play to: 28.5 (-115)

The Bears offensive rush rate is 48% (third highest), which is a full 8% lower than it was in 2022 (56%), when the Bears had the league’s highest rush rate.

Fields has now gone over this total in four of his past five starts.

🤝 Putting It All Together: +595

• Falcons Under 19.5 (-105)

• Michigan -4.5 (-105)

• Fields Over 27.5 Pass Attempts (-115)

🚀 Ladder Bet: Jahmyr Gibbs Rushing Yards 

• 75+ rush yards (+188)

• 80+ rush yards + anytime TD (+380)

• 100+ rush yards (+500)

Gibbs’ odds to go for 100+ rush yards (+500) have him sitting with a 16.6% implied probability, but he has gone for 100 yards rushing in two of his past nine games (22% hit rate). Gibbs also has nine TDs in his past 10 games and scored twice against Minnesota in Week 16, so adding in an SGP that includes an anytime TD makes sense.

Giving Gibbs the ball this week not only keeps Jared Goff from getting hit but it also gives Gibbs a shot at hitting 1,000 rushing yards for the season, a total he’s 85 yards away from.

One game for the division crown. That’s what the schedule makers wanted, and it’s what they’ll get on SNF. The winner will secure an AFC East title while the Bills could miss the postseason with a loss, so the stakes are high. Matt LaMarca breaks down his best bets for Bills-Dolphins.

👍 Best Bet: Under 48.5 (-110, BetMGM)

I highlighted this play in my Week 18 Sharp Report, but the pros love the under in this spot. It’s racked up 98% of the dollars on 87% of the bets (per the Action Network), making it one of the most bet totals of the week.

In a game that should have a playoff-type atmosphere, points should be at a premium. Don’t be surprised if both teams start with some jitters on offense, which could result in a slow start.

Additionally, the Bills’ emphasis on the run game of late is ideal for under bettors. Running the ball keeps the clock rolling, which results in fewer plays overall. Even though the Bills have racked up at least 24 points in all three contests, each of those games has seen less than 48.5 total points.

With Miami’s offense dealing with some injury concerns, they likely won’t be as explosive either. They’ve scored 22 and 19 points in their past two games, albeit against two strong defenses in Dallas and Baltimore.

The final X-factor is this being the final game of the regular season. If one of these teams can get out to a lead — particularly the Bills — it wouldn’t be a shock if the other team pulls its starters. Both of these teams have expectations of playing again on Super Wild Card Weekend, possibly against each other. Losing someone like Josh Allen or Tua Tagovailoa would be devastating for their playoff prospects, so there’s a non-zero chance that one of these teams finishes the game with a backup under center.

⬇️ Top Prop: Dawson Knox Under 12.5 Receiving Yards (-110, DraftKings)

Since returning to the lineup in Week 14, Knox has served as the clear No. 2 TE behind Dalton Kincaid. He’s still playing a bunch — he has a 42% route participation over his past four contests — but he’s been a non-factor in the passing game. He’s had a target share of 10% or less in all four contests, including two games without a single opportunity.

Overall, 2-3 targets seems like his ceiling, while his floor is zero. We have him projected for just over one target and seven receiving yards, so getting the under on 12.5 provides plenty of value.

🏃‍♂️ Ladder Bet: Josh Allen TDs

• 1+ TD (-125)

• 2+ TDs (+500)

Allen remains one of the best goal-line hammers in all of football, rushing for 15 scores through 16 games. He’s been even more effective than usual in that department of late, rushing for at least one TD in five straight games and two TDs in three of them.

We can look to ladder up Allen’s TD props by grabbing an anytime score at -125 and 2+ TDs at +500. If you’re feeling really frisky, you can even add 3+ TDs at +2900. Allen has never scored more than twice in a game in his career, but maybe a must-win game vs. the Dolphins will be the first.