Ladder a Road Favorite In Week 2?

The Seahawks look legit...

September 10, 2024

September 10, 2024
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It’s over (It’s also just beginning): If you’re just going off of Week 1 results, the following teams’ seasons ended as of midnight this Monday: Bengals, Packers, Jaguars, Falcons, Jets.

16 teams lost in Week 1 but I chose these five teams for a reason; they all had win totals of 8.5 or higher and they were all, at worst, second favorites to win their division. Just a week ago, these teams were all considered potential division winners, with the Bengals and Packers being considered solid contrarian Super Bowl picks by many.

Things change fast in the NFL, and Jordan Love’s sprained MCL is going to put a hamper on Green Bay’s title shot, but this is a great time to remind everyone that one game doesn’t make a season—even though the media will try and spin it that way for the next three to four days.

As bettors, we need to be mindful of this and try not to overreact, even if what we saw on the field wasn’t so hot. We need to remind ourselves that a team like Cincinnati is 14-7 ATS since 2021 when set as an underdog (Cincinnati is a 6.0-point underdog in KC this week).

We need to remind ourselves that Matt LaFleur and the Packers are 16-7 as an underdog over that same span (Green Bay is now a 3.5-point underdog, at home, vs the Colts). We need to remind ourselves that Kirk Cousins was 5th among QBs in EPA per play before going down last season (Atlanta is now a 6.5-point underdog at Philadelphia).

In short, we need to remind ourselves that a lot of what happened in Week 1 is not a full representation of what these teams are but is still heavily influencing the lines we’re seeing today. And we need to be ready to chaff through the noise to find those sweet spots of overreaction and betting value when looking at Week 2 spreads.

As always, the best way to do this is by using the tools on FantasyLife+, specifically the NFL Game Model, which shows you the projected edges for each spread for Week 2 from our site projections.

And, later in the week, make sure you check out our Player Projections and Prop Finder Tool, which I used to help post an 8-2 record in the prop department for Week 1.

Cheers, and good luck in Week 2!

What else is in today’s newsletter?

  1. Week 2 Ladder: Don’t Sleep on the Seahawks

  2. Bad Beats from Week 1

  3. Watercooler: Colorado (NCAA) is down bad

Week 2 Ladder Bet

NFL Week 2 Ladder Bet — Are the Seahawks a Juggernaut in Waiting?

by Geoff Ulrich

The 26-20 game score makes Seattle’s Week 1 win over the Broncos look somewhat close, but the reality of the situation was far different. Seattle’s defense held Bo Nix to just 3.28 yards per attempt while sacking him twice and earning three turnovers on the day. Overall, the Broncos gained just 13 first downs which was the second-lowest offensive total of Week 1.

There were some nervous mistakes by the Seahawks’ offense early on, but once Geno Smith got rolling things smoothed out fast. Smith finished a respectable 18/25 with one passing TD, and also ran for a 34-yard TD, reminding the world he’s still got above-average mobility. Kenneth Walker III bullied his way to 103 rushing yards (including a 23-yard TD) and the team managed 26 points without really needing the services of DK Metcalf (3-29), who was semi-shutdown by a great corner in Patrick Surtain II.

Overall, there are signs that Seattle’s defense is an elite unit. They were 5th in EPA per play in Week 1 and 3rd in EPA per dropback, and while you don’t want to overreact to one game against a rookie QB, the early returns from hiring former Ravens defensive guru Mike Macdonald as head coach—whose defense was 2nd in EPA per dropback last season—look fertile.

Can Seattle’s Offense bounce back against New England?

Seattle’s offense was a different story as they ranked just 15th in EPA per play in Week 1, but did have a horrendous first half, something they’re likely to improve on in Week 2. Additionally, while New England’s defense held the Bengals to just 10 points, the numbers suggest their success was more about Cincinnati's incompetence than the Patriots necessarily being an elite unit.

The Bengals ranked just 21st in EPA per play on offense in the Week 1 loss, while the Patriots were 10th in defensive EPA per play. However, New England was also just 27th in EPA per rush against Cincinnati and ceded a rushing TD to RB Zack Moss in the second half.

Unleash Kenneth Walker

Long story short, I think we may see the momentum Seattle built up in the second half against Denver roll right into this Week 2 game against New England. RB Kenneth Walker III was able to break off four runs of 10+ yards against the Broncos and now faces what appears to be a much weaker D-Line in New England.

Add in the fact that this elite Seattle secondary (2 INTs in Week 1, zero passing TD, 3.28 yards per attempt allowed) is facing another weak QB in Jacoby Brissett, and this one does have that cliched “blowout potential” written all over it.

Laddering the ‘Hawks

I already logged a Seattle -3.0 bet in our Free Tracker early Monday, and the line has now moved to -3.5 or even -4.0 at some places. New England had a 4.5-win total to start the year and was the preseason favorite to finish with the worst record, so this line being at just a FG (after Seattle’s solid Week 1) seems like an overreaction to their upset win over the Bengals.

I’d have no issue playing this at -3.5 and potentially -4.0, but with the line moving I also like the idea of getting some exposure to alternative spreads and laddering the Seahawks through some key numbers, for a potentially bigger return. As we saw in Week 1, if Seattle’s offense isn’t turning the ball over inside their own 20, their defense has legitimate shutout potential against weaker teams, and I’m suspect of the Patriots’ rush defense being able to stop the explosive Walker.

I like getting on these bigger numbers at -9.5, -13.5, and -19.5 before the odds come down and more Seahawks money piles in later in the week.

The Early Week 2 Ladder bet: Seahawks-9.5 (+210; bet 365); -13.5 (+330; bet365) ;-19.5 (+610; bet365)

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BAD BEATS!

Week 1 Bad Beats: (Don’t) Remember the Titans … please.

by Geoff Ulrich & Matt LaMarca

Welcome to the first edition of the 2024 Bad Beats roundup, a weekly column where Matt LaMarca and I go through and dissect the worst betting beats from around the NFL. 

First off, I just want to say, this is a safe space. The Betting Life team loads a ton of bets in our FREE Bet Tracker every week and, trust us, we don’t just do it for show. As much as we espouse the long-term profitability of our FantasyLife+ tools and projections, we, like anyone, also get caught up in the moment when things go against us (this is a fancy way of saying we like to whine like toddlers when we lose … especially on the bets we should have won!).

I’m not going to pretend like I saw every play last week, but there were a couple of pretty big leads blown in Week 1 that surely got some bettors hot under the collar. (Not me, though. I handled the Titans meltdown well. Please don’t put in the newspaper that I got mad.)

If you want a more specific breakdown of some of the biggest missed fantasy opportunities, also make sure to read Ian Hartitz’s “Sheesh Report,” a weekly feature of heartbreaking videos and stats.

(Don’t) Remember the Titans

If you had followed my early week bet in Free NFL Bet Tracker, you likely would have had a piece of the Titans at +4.5 in this game (they closed at 4.0 or 3.5). And, like me, you were likely feeling very good when they went into halftime with a 17-3 lead. 

I don’t want to say I was counting my money at that point, but sweating the cover in this game was not on my list of things to do as the second half started for the early slate. 

Of course, as luck would have (and as always happens in these situations), insanity quickly ensued. 

A blocked punt early in the third quarter ended up as a Chicago score (17-10). The Bears then got the ball right back and kicked a FG (17-13). The Bears then got the ball right back again off a Will Levis fumble and kicked another FG (17-16). 

The Titans got the ball back and, to their credit, finally made a first down. Then, on the next set of downs,  Will Levis, in his attempt to avoid a sack on third down, did this.

The Bears converted a two-point conversion and the Bears defense did the rest. 

This probably won't rate super high on my all-time list of bad beats (it wasn’t a last-play pick-six or fumble return off a kickoff sort of deal), but it’s one I’ll remember. If you had told me before the game that the Titans would hold Caleb Williams to just 93 yards passing — and 3.2 yards per attempt — in this game AND that the Titans would go into halftime with a 17-3 lead, I would have taken out second, third and fourth mortgages on my house and put it all on Tennessee. 

Luckily for me, time travel has not been invented yet. However, when it finally is I will be going back and telling 2024 preseason Geoff not to Remember the Titans.

AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports bettting nerds:

Thor Nystrom just dropped his weekly NCAA power ranks. Come see how far the Buffs have dropped.

Jordan Mason blasted the Jets for 147 yards on the ground. But was he supposed to let out this vital piece of information?

Jets, Giants 🤝 Playing terrible in primetime. This record is disgusting.

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