👣 It's All About the JOURNEY

“What a long, strange trip it’s been.”
 – Grateful Dead
 — Matthew Freedman

In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by Underdog:

We’re a perfect third of the way through the NFL season (in terms of weeks), and at this point, only three teams have just one loss against the spread (ATS, per Action Network).

• Dolphins: 5-1 ATS (59.1% ROI)

• Lions: 5-1 ATS (58.2% ROI)

• Rams: 4-1-1 ATS (43.3% ROI)

Side note: There are seven teams with no more than one ATS win this year (Bears, Saints, Falcons, Giants, Patriots, Panthers, and Broncos). Maybe I’ll touch on them in a future newsletter.

These three teams have been wonderfully profitable for bettors through six weeks, but what should we expect from them for the rest of the year?

Here are my thoughts on the betting journeys for each of the three teams from here to the season’s end.

🐬 Dolphins: 5-1 ATS

There’s a lot to like about the Dolphins. 

They’re No. 1 in offensive EPA (0.251) and SR (53.8%, per RBs Don’t Matter). They have been especially strong in the passing game, as QB Tua Tagovailoa is No. 1 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.209), AY/A (9.5), and MVP odds (+350 consensus).

They’re No. 4 (+5.4) — tied with the Eagles — in market-based power ratings (per Inpredictable and Ben Baldwin).

But they still must play the Eagles and Chiefs before the Week 10 bye, and they have a challenging final month of the season (Jets, Cowboys, Ravens, Bills).

Tough road.

I expect them to be most bettable at home and as underdogs for the rest of the year.

• Tagovailoa at Home: 15-5 ATS (43.4% ROI)

• Tagovailoa at Home: 16-4 ML (36.7% ROI)

• Tagovailoa as Underdog: 11-6-1 ATS (22.5% ROI)

• Tagovailoa as Underdog: 9-9 ML (28.4% ROI)

🦁 Lions: 5-1 ATS

The Lions are No. 5 in offensive EPA (0.066) and No. 7 in defensive EPA (-0.102). After the rebuild of 2021 (3-13-1) and the winningly productive struggle of 2022 (9-8), the Lions now look like a championship contender under third-year HC Dan Campbell.

Although the Lions have been a hyped team for a while now, it’s arguable that the market is still not high enough on them, if the past is any indicator.

• 2021 Lions: 11-6 ATS (23.4% ROI)

• 2022 Lions: 12-5 ATS (35.7% ROI)

Under Campbell, this is simply a team that outperforms expectations.

They have won each of their past four games by 14-plus points, and with their moderate schedule, they’ll be able to avoid most of the league’s top teams for the rest of the season.

How they perform this week against the Ravens will be telling.

Moving forward, I expect the Lions to offer the most value in the division and at home.

• Campbell in Division: 11-2 ATS (61.2% ROI)

• Campbell in Division: 8-5 ML (46.5% ROI)

• Campbell at Home: 15-5 ATS (44.1% ROI)

• Campbell at Home: 10-10 ML (22.1% ROI)

🐏 Rams: 4-1-1 ATS

Entering the year, I didn’t have many questions about the Rams offense: I figured a unit led by HC Sean McVay, QB Matthew Stafford, and WR Cooper Kupp could be only so bad.

And even then, I didn’t imagine the Rams would be No. 6 in offensive EPA (0.061) through six weeks. But they are.

My preseason questions for the Rams concerned their defense, which had a chance to be one of the league’s worst units.

Through six weeks, it’s not good, ranking No. 22 in EPA (-0.018) — but that’s close enough to average to make the Rams respectable overall … and maybe even dangerous as a wild card contender.

But there’s a good chance this team will fall off, at least as a betting option.

McVay has been a profitable coach for bettors throughout his career, going 59-51-4 ATS (4.2% ROI). But he hasn’t been massively bettable, and his temporal edge has historically dulled to nothing after Week 3.

• McVay in Weeks 1-3: 14-6-1 ATS (34.8% ROI)

• McVay After Weeks 1-3: 45-45-3 ATS (-2.7% ROI)

I like the Rams and was high on them entering the year, and if I were to back them moving forward, it would likely be in a spot where the market might be inclined to negativity.

• McVay Off a Loss: 24-13-3 ATS (24.0% ROI)

• McVay on Road: 31-23-2 ATS (11.8% ROI)

• McVay as Underdog: 19-14-2 ATS (11.1% ROI)

But if I bet the Rams from now on, it will likely be situationally instead of generally — because I think the market has probably caught up with them.

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Teasers: What are they? — and should I bet them? Our friend Captain Jack from Unabated is here to give us all the dirty details…

There are two things most recreational bettors love: Parlays and waiting until right before kickoff to ship their action. 

Neither option is usually a fantastic idea for a whole lot of reasons. If your bets aren’t sound, parlays turbocharge negative edges. And markets are their most efficient (read: hardest to beat) right before kickoff.

But there’s a way to parlay late in the week and still make sharp bets: Teasers.

🤔 What Is a Teaser Bet?

A teaser is a type of bet where the bettor is given extra points on each game in a parlay. The extra points (usually 6, 6.5, or 7) increase the probability of winning each leg, but it lowers the overall payout. 

And just like a regular parlay, you’ll need to hit every leg to cash. (There’s no escaping that the fewer legs of any parlay, the easier they are to hit. Sorry, 10-teamer diehards.) 

This week, Jacksonville is a +1.5 underdog at FanDuel, and the Bills are a -8.5 favorite in New England. If you parlayed those together, you’d get about +250.

If you made those same plays in a six-point teaser, you would have Jacksonville +7.5 and Buffalo -2.5. It’s much more likely both teams cover. Unfortunately, FanDuel only offers around -135 on this six-point teaser.

💰 Why NFL Teaser Bets Are Beatable

To compensate for the lower payout, you need to hit each leg more often. In 2000, noted blackjack author Stanford Wong published Sharp Sports Betting. Wong found that the sweet spot was any teaser that passed each leg through the key numbers of 3, 6, and 7.

Wong said teams teasing through these numbers were good for a collective 76.1% hit rate. Teasers that passed through the key numbers became known as “Wong teasers.” A -7.5 favorite down to -1.5? Wong. A +2.5 underdog up to +8.5? Wong. Dr. Strange’s sidekick? Also Wong, but not what we’re talking about here.

If you stopped at Wong teasers when the payout prices are reasonable (some books charge excessive juice, like -150 on a two-team 6-point teaser), you could do OK. But you can use the Unabated Teaser Calculator to see various legs with a positive expected value. It’ll even tell you your overall edge in the total teaser.

😬 Teaser Traps

A few other things you need to know before diving headfirst into teasers:

1. Teasing Through Zero — Zero is a dead number in the NFL because there is little probability that the game will end in a tie. You’re wasting one of your six precious points on a point with no value. 

2. Teasing Totals — Likewise, don’t waste teaser points on totals. Using 6 points to go from +2 to +8 is incredibly valuable. Teasing a total from under 56 to under 62 isn’t. Each point of a total is worth considerably less than every point in a spread. 

3. Super Teasers — If six points are good, then 10 points must be great! They can be, but a common play for losing bettors is to tease all the favorites for 10. Just like parlaying all the heavy favorites, this works until it doesn’t. 

⬇️ In case you missed the news on Monday: Unders are CRUSHING!

📓 The long-anticipated sequel to The Notebook. I can’t stop looking at this account.

🏀 NBA is HERE! I don’t think a big man should be able to move like this…

🌶️ Best Bets and HOT TAKES for Week 7. How spicy is too spicy?

🎲 In the NFL, luck is half the battle: Here are the teams benefitting from — and getting pummeled by — randomness. 

🕺 In two years, Woody Harrelson will play this guy in the movie White Men Can’t Dance. Embarrassing does not even begin to describe it.

📺 Looking for more Thursday Night Football bets? We’ve got you covered.

🤝 I personally find both groups a little annoying? The nerds vs. the knowers.

🏌️‍♂️ The game is called “Hot Shot” (I’m speculating): It involves fire, alcohol, golf clubs, and morons.

🪒 And now something for the college football fans. Are we sure this guy isn’t 40 years old?

🎧 The Wall Street Journal, because we’re classy (sort of, I mean, it’s a podcast). The details on Disney’s foray into sports betting.

Week 7 kicks off TONIGHT with a heart-palpating interconference matchup matchup between the Saints and Jaguars. Matt LaMarca is here to break it all down from a betting angle…

🏈 Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints

• Spread: Saints -1.0 (-110, BetMGM)

• Total: 40.0

• Moneylines: Jaguars +100/Saints -120

While Jacksonville is 4-2, I’m still not entirely sure how good this team is. They’ve been the beneficiaries of a very weird schedule, with two of their wins coming in London and their other two wins coming against the Colts.

Last week’s win over Indianapolis was weird. On one hand, they became the first team to return to the States after playing overseas and not be tied or trail at any point in the fourth quarter. That’s good!

On the other hand, it’s hard to say the Jaguars were dominant in that contest. They managed just 233 yards of total offense, and the Colts gifted the Jaguars with three turnovers in their first seven possessions. Two of those turnovers set the Jaguars up deep in Colts territory, directly handing them 10 points.

Ultimately, teams that put up tons of points with minimal supporting yardage tend to become overvalued. Teams with at least 30 points and less than 250 yards have gone just 137-159-9 ATS dating back to 2005.

Meanwhile, the Saints are in the opposite boat. They were undoubtedly the better team in their matchup with the Texans last week; they just didn’t win. The Saints racked up 133 more yards than the Texans, but they sabotaged themselves with two turnovers, two failed fourth-down conversions, and 83 penalty yards.

The Saints’ offense has been mediocre this season — they’re 20th in EPA/play — but Derek Carr has been limited in two games due to an injury. With Carr at full strength, this offense should improve moving forward. Alvin Kamara has returned recently to complement an outstanding trio of receivers in Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, and Rashid Shaheed, giving Carr plenty of strong weapons to lean on.

Defensively, the Saints boast an elite unit. Their defense ranks fifth in EPA/play against, and they’re in the top six in both yards and points per game allowed.

✅ Best Bet: Saints -1.0 (-110, BetMGM)

If it isn’t abundantly clear, I’m all over the Saints for this matchup. I’ve already locked in a play on Saints -1 in our free Bet Tracker.

For my money, I’m not sure there’s a more overvalued team than the Jaguars at the moment. They’re merely 17th in the Massey-Peabody power ratings, but they’re sixth in the NFL.com Power Rankings. That’s a wide discrepancy.

On the other side, the Saints are ninth in Massey-Peabody and 18th on NFL.com.

In short — this is the perfect storm of an undervalued squad squaring off with an overvalued one.

Add in the fact that the Saints have home-field advantage, and this spread should be larger than just a point. I personally make the spread closer to Saints -3.5, so we’re getting the key number of three for free.

The sharps also like the Saints, with New Orleans receiving 77% of the dollars on 63% of the bets (per the Action Network). This number is up to -1.5 at some locations and could continue to rise as we approach kickoff, so if you’re going to tail, I’d lock it in quickly.

⬆️ Prop: Alvin Kamara over 50.5 rushing yards (-110, BetMGM)

• Bet To: Over 53.5 (-120)

• Fantasy Life Projection: 53.71

Kamara returned to the Saints’ lineup in Week 4, and since then, he’s operated as the team’s clear top running back. He’s played on 73% of the snaps over that time frame, and he’s handled 64% of the rushing attempts. That includes 74% of the carries in Week 6, which set a new high-water mark for the year.

Kamara’s efficiency as a runner has cratered over the past few years, but with that kind of volume, he doesn’t need to be particularly efficient. He’s run the ball at least 19 times in back-to-back weeks, and he’s racked up at least 68 yards in both contests. He even managed to hit the over on 50.5 yards in his first game despite receiving just 11 totes.

The Jaguars are a tough matchup, ranking second in the league in EPA/rush against. However, as long as this game stays competitive, Kamara should be locked into around 15 carries. That should be enough to hit the over on this number.