It's Not a Comeback

NFL Offenses Taking Another Step Forward

October 07, 2024

Oct. 7, 2024
PRESENTED BY

Don’t Call It A Comeback! Woke up to a small river of emails all asking the same thing. Did my eyes deceive me, or did offense return in a big way? Hold onto your helmets ladies and gentlemen … we are back! Nine different teams eclipsed 30+ points yesterday, the highest total this season—which becomes at least slightly more impressive when considering four teams sat home on the bye.

John Laghezza

We mentioned late this summer how a shortened preseason, combined with protective wrap on all the good players could stunt the continuity necessary for offensive production. And it bears out big time on the spreadsheets—check out the laundry list of rate stats at weekly highs (to account for byes): points, plays run, yards per play, EPA per play, yards per rush, pass rate, dropbacks, attempts, completions, passing yards, passing touchdowns, yards per target, and yards per attempt.

While it doesn’t mean we’re blindly chasing overs from here on out, it’s increasingly meaningful to shape offensive projections and expectations with trajectory in mind more than total ranks for example (Using the Fantasy Life Projections is a great way to do that, wink)

Bonus Grievance: Not sure if I’ll be covering all the unserious coaching decisions again this week—but let me carve out a second for the ritual Sean McDermott mention. (ahem) Dude, what are you doing?!? Tied at 20 and backed up inside the Bills’ own 5 with only 30 seconds to go, most of us assumed the Bills would look to kill the clock. Maybe a few inside runs or high-probability targets over the middle if you do decide to throw. Anything to push the Texans to the whistle.

Well, in the words of Doctor Evil, how about no? 

Buffalo goes 15+ yards outside of the hash marks to Keon Coleman before launching 40+ yards downfield to Mack Hollins. Two low-percentage attempts at BUF’s least-efficient receivers. What a face plant, failing to move the ball an inch or even cost Houston a timeout. A third wobbly pass eventually bounced off the turf, setting up the Texans in perfect position to center a kick that would be the game-winner. Total unserious stuff again from McDermott (whom I like!)

What else is in today’s newsletter?

  • Look Into My Crystal Ball

  • The New York Prop Exchange

NFL BETTING

Look Into My Crystal Ball🔮—BFFs!

Of all the teams seeking a boost in offense, none may be more hopeful for a turnaround than Kansas City. During the offseason, hype for a Chiefs resurgence back to offensive domination was palpable. You could cut it with a knife. KC added quality veteran Hollywood Brown and drafted Xavier Worthy, literally the fastest player to ever test at the NFL Combine.

Well, if ifs and buts were candies and nuts we’d all have a wonderful season—injuries and inexperience collided to produce minimal results in the WR room.

Despite the undefeated record, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have severely underwhelmed on offense, posting middling ranks in all the critical macros—points scored (23.0), plays run (59.8), yards per game (328.3), EPA/play (+0.03), and net-yard differential (+2). 

Luckily for Andy Reid, the approach remains unchanged since Mahomes and his league-leading expected completion rate play for him—the duo continues to dial up passes over the rate of expectation. Now that target hog Rashee Rice is on the shelf, where else can the focal point shift but to Travis Kelce? 

To absolutely no one’s surprise, Kelce stepped right into the alpha role without Rice last week (below).

The Saints’ defense commands some respect but at 36%, the elevated rate of man coverage creates mismatches. You see this pretty clearly evidenced in the TE production allowed just the last two weeks—16 catches for 213 yards. Whoa, that’s a lot … we only need 6.

THE BET: Travis Kelce Over 5.5 Receptions (+100) FanDuel

Make sure to check out our Player Projections to compare.

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AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

👀 Claudia, Freedman, and LaMarca talk up all the great Sunday action on the Betting Life Show and take a peek at the early lines for NFL Week 6.

📺 Claudia and Thor run down last week’s games and look ahead to Ohio State-Oregon and other big Week 7 College Football matchups.

🏈 How is Chiefs-Saints shaping up on MNF? Our Game Model will lay out the winning plan.

🔮 Let’s get it started with the early betting lines for NFL Week 6.

🤯 Where are the Monday Night Football bets going? Chiefs or Saints?

MLB BETTING

The New York Prop Exchange 🏈🏛️—Royale With Cheese

The AL Division Series picks back up in the boogie-down Bronx tonight for Game 2 between the Royals and Yankees. The Royals find themselves down 0-1, trying not to turn their first home playoff appearance on Wednesday into an elimination game. This is one of two AL Division Series games taking place today.

Carlos Rodón takes the hill for the Highlanders against fellow southpaw Cole Ragans.  Apologies to my fellow Pinstripers, but I’m surprised New York’s such a heavy favorite tonight. We know the Yanks slug but playoff baseball will forever be more to me about the best starting pitcher—and that belongs to KC.

Ragans has the edge in stuff, swing-and-miss ability, ground balls, home run rate, and contact suppression. It’s Rodón’s issues with the long ball in particular that worry me, given Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez combined to mash LHP this season—batting over .300 with an +11% Barrel and +.375 xwOBA. (whispers) If you’re into BvP data, Perez has 4 XBH (3 HR) and an .886 career SLG off Rodón.

On the flip side, we get Ragans, who’s been unflappable away from home as one of MLB’s best road pitchers: 2.87 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, .579 OPS. He just pitched against NYY at the stadium on Sept. 11 and shoved (6 IP, 2 ER, 7 K). The boxscore almost doesn’t do the outing justice, the Yankees looked hopeless through 5 until Soto went yard in the 6th. Tonight’s starters are only 3-for-21 lifetime off Ragans, including that bomb—and that’s where I want to put a bow on this play.

Let’s avoid the home crowds, the bullpens, and the Bambino’s ghost. I have this one modeled close as could be through 5 innings, so give me the most boring bet in baseball, the underdog’s first-five run line—where tying is winning. At this point, I’d love nothing more than a 1-1 cash and early bedtime.

THE BET: KC F5 Runline +0.5 (-130) DraftKings

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