Is Brandon Aiyuk About To Go Nuclear?

He could be pretty busy on Sunday

September 20, 2024

Sept. 20, 2024

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Turn Off Injuries, Please: In the words of the great Charlie Brown … Good grief! I’m pretty sure it’s said every year, but critical injuries seem to be piling up higher in 2024 than ever before. Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, George Kittle, Isiah Pacheco, A.J. Brown, Keenan Allen, Tee Higgins, Joe Mixon, and Evan Engram top the list of stars either already ruled out or trending that way in Week 3 (and possibly more)—each creating a cascading effect throughout the NFL betting world.

John Laghezza

Although general wisdom recommends getting line bets down early in an attempt to capture closing-line value on whatever edge is perceived, this year is hitting me a little different. I’m not even insinuating any sort of chicanery. Books were just as shocked by the McCaffrey announcement as we were and Jordan Mason’s prop prices are clear evidence of this. Anyone holding unders got smoked on the first drive through no fault of their own, of course.

Ushering in the newest age of deciphering coach speak in NFL reporting, I want as much information as possible before sacrificing actual greenbacks—and I’d be willing to give up a few cents for that peace of mind. 

Call me old fashioned, but someone once said “fool me once, shame on … shame on you. Fool me … you can't get fooled again.”

What else is in today’s newsletter?

  • The New York Prop Exchange

  • Five And Dive

NFL BETTING

The New York Prop Exchange🏈🏛️—Aiyuken

With my digital tears for injuries shed, there’s still business to attend to. I can’t remember a team having more “huh?” injuries in a season than the 49ers have in September alone. What I mean is, we’re all accustomed to players getting hurt while playing, it’s par for the course. But we then generally assume they’ll make it to the next game in one piece.

Not so fast, my friends …

In a vicious 1-2 injury punch both Deebo Samuel and George Kittle wound up listed with relatively serious injuries that will cost several games. The once-stacked San Fran skill-position room is suddenly stripped to the core, Kyle Shanahan should turn to last man standing Brandon Aiyuk. Lucky for the Niners, this Rams defense couldn’t stop dead in their own tracks. 

How bad is it? You may want to sit down for this … 

  • 33.5 PPG Allowed (31st)

  • 426.0 Yards/Game Allowed (Last)

  • 6.9 Yards/Play Allowed (T-Last)

  • -0.24 Defensive EPA/Play (Last)

  • 41.7 Average Drive Distance Allowed (31st)

  • 60% Drive Success Allowed (30th)

  • -0.37 EPA/Dropback (31st)

  • Opposition Passer Rating (121.4 (30th)

  • 13.8 Yards/Reception Allowed (Last)

  • 8 +20-Yard Completions (T-31st)

Granted, Aiyuk’s not off to a great start (6-71-0) through two games—he does lead the team in routes run (below) and represents San Fran’s last true target earner. Just look how efficiently opposing passing attacks operate against the Rams’ secondary (above). Also can’t help but think this makes a great opportunity for Aiyuk to be featured as a standalone alpha wide receiver.

So why can we find Aiyuk’s receiving-yard prop as low as 68.5 even after the Kittle news? And the fact the Rams allowed the opposing WR1 to go over 120 receiving yards in both games? I’m not sure, but you can bet your bottom dollar this number’s getting close to 80 by Sunday. 

THE BET: Brandon Aiyuk Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-115) 

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MLB BETTING

Five and Dive ⚾️💣—Snakebites

Always fun deploying strategies we’ve covered and today’s F5 bet is a perfect example. Arizona is coming in at a nice price with a pretty clear two-phase edge against the Beermakers in Milwaukee tonight. They’re rolling out Zac Gallen in a must-win versus a Brewer squad without too much to play for after clinching the NL Central. Let’s take a quick look.

Gallen’s always a favorite of mine. Nothing phases this guy, evidenced in the strong L/R splits and road stats (.232 BAA, .676 OPS, .8 HR/9). I love that he consistently keeps the ball down and boasts so many plus pitches—the curveball, slider and changeup all generate top-tier whiff rates. Not to oversimplify, but the idea being robust arsenals give starters a plan B if their best stuff is not there. 

Milwaukee’s got Colin Rea on the bump, who makes for a pretty solid negative regression candidate. All the underpinning luck stuff is screaming downside (4.92 xERA, 77.1% LOB, .271 BABIP), especially upon considering the combination of a .399 xwOBAcon with +40% flyball and +40% hard -it rates. 

And in case you haven’t noticed,  Arizona's offense is humming lately. We’re talking about better combined disciplinary stats than the Dodgers and Yankees, with the No. 1 expected weighted on-base average versus righties this month (below).

As much as I like the Diamondbacks—and now hopefully you do, too—pump the brakes on the full-game play. Their bullpen has been worse than bad and it’s easily the Brewers’ strong suit. We don’t want any part of sweating a multi-hour dogfight—I’d rather have my money back with a push after five innings.

THE BET: ARI First 5 Innings ML (-120) DKSB 

AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

👀 The Week 4 College Football Pregame Show, featuring Thor Nystrom, Coach Gene Clemons, and Eric Froton, kicks off Saturday at 10 a.m. ET.

💀 Choose the 49ers? The Week 3 Survivor Picks by John Laghezza are here to guide you along.

🏈 De’Von Achane score a TD? Geoff Ulrich delivers your Week 3 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets.

🥊 What is the Next Group of UFC Champions? Mark Drumheller offers his Best Bets.

 

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