🩹 Injuries — and MOAR Injuries

Injuries aren’t everything, they’re the only thing…

In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by BetMGM.

If I have an edge as a sports bettor — and it’s debatable whether I actually do, in full disclosure — it might be my ability to do two things when it comes to injuries.

1. Accurately estimate the odds of guys playing or not.

2. Reasonably quantify the impact of injured players in the betting market, specifically against the spread.

For me, the process of obsessing about injuries starts as early as late Sunday afternoon, when sportsbooks post early lines for the coming week. (On Monday, I published my early Week 3 injury report.)

Then throughout the week I monitor injury reports and do an in-depth review on Friday afternoon in order to update my spread and total projections for each game.

With that in mind, here are the non-skill injuries that most have my attention as we approach kickoff. (For analysis of the fantasy-relevant players, check out Ian Hartitz’s great Week 3 injury roundup published on Friday.)

🤕 The Ravens Are INJURED All Over 

• LT Ronnie Stanley (knee, out)

• C Tyler Linderbaum (ankle, out)

• EDGE Odafe Oweh (ankle, out)

• CB Marlon Humphrey (foot, out)

• FS Marcus Williams (pectoral, out)

This is on top of missing WR Odell Beckham (ankle) and RBs J.K. Dobbins (Achilles, IR) and Justice Hill (foot).

If I had to list for you the six most important players on the Ravens outside of the skill-positions groups, Stanley, Linderbaum, Oweh, Humphrey, and Williams would probably all be included (along with LB Roquan Smith).

And it’s not just that those guys are all good and valuable on their own: They all also play important positions within the game of football.

I mentioned in the Monday Betting Life newsletter that 2-0 teams have been profitable to fade in Week 3, especially as favorites (per Action Network).

• ATS: 43-53-2 (8.2% ROI for faders)

• ML: 60-37 (6.1% ROI for faders)

The Ravens clearly fall within this 2-0 bucket.

Takeaway: Given their injuries and record, the Ravens might be getting too much respect in the market. I have a bet on the Colts +8.5 at Ravens in our 100% FREE bet tracker.

🤠 The Texans Defense is SHOT

• LB Denzel Perryman (ankle/wrist, out)

• FS Jalen Pitre (chest, out)

• CB Tavierre Thomas (hand, out)

• CB Derek Stingley (hamstring, out)

On the injury report for the Texans is also LT Laremy Tunsil (knee, questionable), although I tentatively expect him to play.

Still, the Texans defense is extremely shorthanded, especially in the back seven, where they are missing four starters, which compounds the impact of the separate injuries.

One day, I expect the Texans defense under new HC DeMeco Ryans to be a formidable unit — but, in the words of Aragorn, “It is not this day.” (No, I definitely don’t have Lord of the Rings going in the background as I write this, by the way.)

Takeaway: I expect Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence to exploit this injured back seven. I think there’s value on the Jags at any number below -8. I bet on them at -7 in the look-ahead market.

🦁 The Lions Have Lost the ROAR?

• LT Taylor Decker (ankle, out)

• RG Halapoulivaati Vaitai (knee, out)

• FS Kerby Joseph (hip, out)

• CB Emmanuel Moseley (knee, out)

• SS C.J. Gardner-Johnson (pectoral, IR)

• EDGE James Houston (ankle, IR)

The Lions will likely also be without RB David Montgomery (thigh, doubtful), but, you know, RBs don’t matter.

In the lookahead market, the Lions were -5.5 favorites. When the line was reposted on Sunday afternoon, it was -4.5. Since then, it has been bet down to -3 at most sportsbooks.

But that might not be far enough, given that the Lions are dealing with multiple injuries on the offensive line (their greatest strength) and their secondary (their greatest weakness).

As underdogs, the Lions under HC Dan Campbell are a heroic 21-9 ATS (34.1% ROI). As favorites, though, they’re a mediocre 3-3 ATS.

Takeaway No. 1: In my opinion, the market is not taking the full impact of these injuries into account. I have a bet on the Falcons +3.5 at Lions.

Takeaway No. 2: I also like Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier over 41.5 rushing yards. I talked about that bet (and others) with Geoff Ulrich on the Week 3 prop pod. I have Allgeier projected for 49.5. (Check out the Fantasy Life Projections page for access to all my player projections.)

Every week, Matthew Freedman writes an article with his top five player props. Here are a couple of his favorites, which you can find (along with lots of other bets) in our 100% FREE bet tracker.

🏃 Trevor Lawrence Over 14.5 Rushing Yards (-111, BetMGM)

Through two weeks, Lawrence has shown a strong willingness to run (six carries per game this year vs. 3.6 last year). The sample is small, but it’s encouraging: In Week 1, he had 21 yards on seven carries, and then in Week 2 he had 26 on five.

His prop of 14.5 yards makes sense based on his numbers from last year when his median output was 15 yards and three carries.

But this is a new season, and 2023 Lawrence is more of a rusher. In 2022, he had a 9% designed rush rate. This year, he has a 12% designed run rate (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

And in general, I think the prop market to open the year has been too low on the rushing props of mobile pocket passers -- guys like Lawrence, Patrick Mahomes, Geno Smith, et al. While they’re not quite dual-threat QBs, these guys can still run the ball.

• Fantasy Life Projection: 21.1

• My Projection: 18.7

• Cutoff: 16.5

🔻 Alexander Mattison Under 58.5 Rushing Yards (-110, bet365)

It pains me to take the under on Mattison given that he’s one of my fantasy favorites this week -- but let me provide some context: I like Mattison because he has 29 of the team’s 36 backfield opportunities (19 carries, 10 targets), and he leads the Vikings with four opportunities (two carries, two targets) inside the 10-yard line.

In a game that easily has the week’s highest betting total (54 points), Mattison has the potential to turn 12 carries and four targets into 70 yards and two touchdowns.

Given all the uncertainty at the RB position, that would be a great fantasy day — but Mattison could still go under 58.5 rushing yards with that performance.

The Vikings are a passing team. Last year, they were No. 3 in pass play rate (64.4%). This year, they’re easily No. 1 (78.0%). With their propensity to throw the ball, Mattison’s carry ceiling is likely capped, which means that it will be hard for him to hit the over — especially with the 3.3 yards per carry he has averaged this year and 3.7 since 2021.

And that doesn’t even take into account the possibility that — because of his inefficiency — he could face more competition for snaps and carries from backup Ty Chandler and the recently acquired Cam Akers.

• Fantasy Life Projection: 53.7

• My Projection: 50.5

• Cutoff: 55.5

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Speaking of which, here’s how Matthew Freedman is choosing to bet his money on Cardinals-Cowboys.

🐦 Cardinals +12.5 vs. Cowboys (-110, BetMGM)

The Cowboys have scored more points (70) and allowed fewer points (10) than any other team in the league — but the Cardinals have been feisty, losing yet covering in Weeks 1-2.

With RB James Conner, I expect the Cardinals to attack a Cowboys run defense that has limited big plays (No. 1 in rush EPA) but consistently allowed positive plays (No. 23 in rush SR, per RBs Don’t Matter).

With a run-heavy attack, the Cardinals could slow the game down just enough to get the cover.

As I mentioned in the Monday Betting Life newsletter, 0-2 underdogs are 59-42-2 ATS (13.0% ROI) over the past 20 years.

This is a nasty bet, but thanks to BetMGM at least you won’t need to sweat it :)

Welcome to Week 3 of Bets from the Group Chat. This is where I (Geoff Ulrich) elicit as much information as I can from my Fantasy Life colleagues about their leans for this week. It’s really a selfish endeavor as I’ll be using some of their plays to offset my own losers.

Let’s get to it…

⬆️ Tank Dell Over 3.5 receptions (+130 BetMGM)

One of the more under-the-radar stories from Week 2 was the emergence of Tank Dell as a near-every-down player. He led the team in targets and had a snap rate above 80%. Further, Dell was productive. A 70% catch rate with a TD and 72 yards is a nice day all things considered, especially from a receiver playing in just his second NFL game.

The set-up for this week also reeks of another 40+ pass attempts from CJ Stroud. Denzel Perryman, Jalen Pitre, Tavierre Thomas, and Derek Stingley are all out for Houston on defense and they’re +8.0 underdogs in Jacksonville. On a side note, it might also be a good time to fire up Calvin Ridley overs.

Dell would be my primary target, though, for props. Despite the heavy usage in Week 2 his reception total remains at just 3.5 and the over has been sitting at heavy plus odds since release — rare, as overs tend to get bet more heavily and often end up with heavy juice.

⬇️ Adam Thielen Under 17.5 longest reception (-105 BetMGM)

Objectively, this is one of those lines that makes no sense. Thielen enters this game with a 5.58-yard aDOT and a seasonal line of 9 rec. 66 yards (7.33 yards per catch for the math guys). Despite playing over 85% of the snaps in each of the Panthers’ first two games, his longest reception on the season is just 15 yards.

Thielen’s a pure possession receiver at this point and has never ventured much past 10 yards over the line of scrimmage on any of his routes in 2023. For betting, I would rather be on the side of that not changing, than the opposite (aka, Thielen finds the fountain of youth on his way to Seattle).

The Panthers also have a plethora of young receivers, like Laviska Shenault Jr. and Terrace Marshall, who they may start giving more snaps to as they try to improve on their 4.1 yards per play mark — second worst in the league.

🥊 Quick Hitters from the Fantasy Life Free Bet Tool

In case you didn’t know, we also have an NFL Bet Tracker up on Fantasy Life as well. It’s FREE and there are always bets (with reasoning) posted for every game/slate.

✍️ Matt LaMarca likes: Steelers moneyline

✍️ Matthew Freedman likes: Tyler Allgeier over 41.5 rush yards

This makes plenty of sense.

Atlanta’s offense has a ton of scripted run plays every week and Allgeier hasn’t gone under this number since Week 10 of 2022.

✍️ Geoff Ulrich Likes: Jordan Love over 0.5 INTs

Love has had it easy thus far facing a couple of poor secondaries and D-Lines who aren’t good at bringing pressure.

He’s also had a couple of passes dropped by defenders.

The Saints’ secondary is a step up in class.

Our friends over at The Hammer Betting Network have been adding their favorite Week 3 bets to our Free Bet Tracker. Bringing you one of the latest from their team is Fabian Sommer…

🌶️ Didn’t the Red Hot Chili Peppers quote the Butthole Surfers in a song once? Freedman’s Week 3 regrets … at least the ones he’s willing to admit.

↔️ Arbitrage isn’t just that thing that L.L. Bean-wearing investment bankers vacationing in Maine talk about. How to profit when sportsbooks disagree.

📺 Actually, this doesn’t sound like the worst way to watch football, right? “A nice little Saturday.”

🧠 A new phrase is sweeping the nation: “Protection-focused pocket-bound brain power.” If you want a QB who wins, find a QB who avoids sacks.

😭 Darren Rovell dunks on someone, and the site formerly known as “Twitter” reacts as you might expect. Life comes at you fast.

❌ Former NFL QB J.T. O’Sullivan breaks down everything wrong with Bears QB Justin Fields: 95.5 minutes of straight-up savagery.

💎 It’s impossible to talk too much about Coach Prime. The dude might be worth as much as $1B to the University of Colorado.

💰 With any luck, in another 20 years that $300 will be worth $300. Parlays > government bonds. 

🎶 “Waiting all day for Sunday night” You bet we have bets on Raiders-Steelers!

The Week 3 SNF nightcap features an AFC matchup between the Steelers and Raiders, and Matt LaMarca is here to break it down from a betting angle…

This week’s Sunday Night Football showdown might not be the most glamorous. That said, it should at least be competitive. The Steelers will travel to Las Vegas to take on the Raiders, and the spread on this game is listed at around a field goal.

Both of these squads have had similar results to start the year. The Raiders suffered a blowout loss to the Bills in Week 2, while the Steelers were blown out by the 49ers in Week 1. However, both teams managed to pull out close wins in their other contest.

Which team will move to 2-1 on Sunday? Let’s dive into all the betting angles for this matchup.

☠️ Pittsburgh Steelers at Las Vegas Raiders

• Spread: Raiders -3.0 (+100; BetMGM)

• Total: 43.0

• Moneylines: Steelers +125/Raiders -150

Let’s start with the line. This number is down to Raiders -2.5 across most of the industry, but they’re still listed as three-point favorites on BetMGM. This line has fluctuated between 2.5 and 3.0 for most of the week, which tells me that the sharps are split on this matchup. Whenever the number is at 3.0, the action lands on the Steelers. When it’s at 2.5, it’s on the Raiders.

Overall, the Steelers have a slight edge when it comes to betting tickets (54%; via the Action Network), while the Raiders have a moderate edge in betting dollars (67%).

Regardless of where this line eventually settles, it suggests that the Raiders are a slightly better team than the Steelers on a neutral field. The old adage of home-field advantage being worth three points is no longer the case.

Home field these days is worth closer to 1.5 points, and for a team like the Raiders, it might be even less. It wouldn’t shock me if there were more Steelers fans than Raiders fans in the building on Sunday night.

The big question with the Steelers is can their offense finally get rolling?

They garnered some serious buzz during the preseason, with quarterback Kenny Pickett appearing ready to make a leap in Year Two. However, the offense has been nothing short of a disaster through the first two weeks. They’re 31st in yards per game, while Pickett ranks 26th in EPA + CPOE composite.

Even in the Steelers’ win over the Browns, their defense was responsible for 14 of the team’s 26 points.

However, their first two matchups have come against the 49ers and Browns, who boast two of the best defenses in the league. The Raiders are clearly not on that level. They’re 31st in defensive EPA per play through the first two weeks, so this is a prime breakout spot for Pickett and company. If they can’t succeed in this matchup, it’s time to start panicking with the Steelers’ offense.

The Steelers’ defense is a much stronger unit, so it’s hard to envision the same level of success for the Raiders. Like Pittsburgh, Vegas has struggled out of the gates offensively. They’re 30th in points and yards per game, and their schedule hasn’t been nearly as difficult.

While the 49ers and Browns both rank in the top three of EPA per play allowed, the Bills are 12th in that metric while the Broncos are 30th. Ultimately, the fact that the Raiders have struggled to move the ball is significantly more concerning.

I’ve already locked in a bet on the Steelers moneyline in our free Bet Tracker, but I’d suggest taking the three points if they’re still available. I think the Steelers are clearly the better team, but that’s not what the current betting numbers imply.

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