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Jalen Hurts Under 3200.5 Passing Yards (-110):

Don’t take betting this under as an indictment on the quality of the Eagles’ offense, when in fact it’s closer to the opposite. Philadelphia’s front office spent the last half-decade building a top-down roster juggernaut, culminating in last year’s Super Bowl win—and like the inimitable Frank Sinatra, they did it their way.

Jalen Hurts didn’t even come close to going over this number last season, falling nearly 300 yards short because simply put, throwing late wasn’t necessary. Just five teams posted a second-half rush rate north of 50% in 2024, with none higher than 57%—except for PHI at +63%! Did I mention they have some guy named Saquon Barkley running the ball, who last I checked was pretty good?

Stacked on both sides of the ball, Philly may be even better on defense this time around, once again failing to necessitate the full potential of their aerial attack. Hey, boasting the league’s best point, play, and yards allowed totals comes with consequences. 

Sam Darnold Over 3500.5 Passing Yards (-110):

To be blunt, I don’t understand this line at all. Expecting some degree of negative regression from Sam Darnold leaving Kevin O’Connell’s offense is one thing, but 819 yards is something completely different. The surrounding contextual environment is going to change for the worse, I get that. The thing is, you don’t have to be a world-beater to eclipse 3,500 yards through the air. In fact, 18 different QBs passed that mark in 2024. 

With only Drew Lock competing for early reps—Jalen Milroe is very much a developmental player—this feels like a true overreaction to the last time we saw Darnold play. It’s not like he’s heading to Pittsburgh or Green Bay, where running is the standard—this is Klint Kubiak we’re talking about. For reference, Seattle finished 2024 with the fifth-highest pass rate in the NFL, and barring injury, this should cash easily.

Mike Evans Over 999.5 Receiving Yards (+175)

Death, taxes, the sun rising in the east—and Mike Evans going over 1,000 receiving yards. Aaah, nothing beats the certainties in life.

Eventually this magical run will come to an end, but even though he’s entering his age-32 season, Evans is showing no signs of stopping. Among all 49 wideouts who earned 80+ targets in 2024, Evans is still producing like a high-end WR1. The future Hall of Famer ranked top 10 in team air yard rate (33.0%), targets per route (26.6%), yards per route (2.43), and air yards per game (91.0) as a favorite deep focus of Baker Mayfield. 

And how could I forget? Tampa’s pass defense easily ranked in the NFL’s bottom tier as one of only five teams to allow 240+ passing yards a game. Everything’s in place for Evans to break Jerry Rice’s record streak with his 12th consecutive 1,000-yard season, and I’m here for it. 

⚾🏆MLB Futures—Is Saint Agustín A Major ROY Value?🏆⚾

THE BET: Agustín Ramírez To Win NL Rookie Of The Year (+450)

After dealing with an absolutely stacked field of rookies last season, featuring household names like Paul Skenes, Jackson Chourio, and Shota Imanaga, I’m not sure many (if any) casual fans even know who’s in the running for 2025.  Stop 10 people outside your favorite stadium and I’d be shocked if two or three of them could rattle off this year's favorites. And where there’s uncertainty, lies opportunity for those of us in the know.

For lack of a better term, most of the popular preseason picks for National League ROY have stunk thus far. Consensus favorite, Dodger SP Roki Sasaki can’t find the dish, boasting a +16% walk rate to go with a +5 expected ERA—which signals things may actually get much worse from here. Then there’s Matt Shaw and Zac Veen, both of whom already earned demotions for hitting below .170 and combining for a 71 wRC+. While it’s still early enough for any or all of their production to turn around, it’s safe to say things haven’t gone well for MLB’s elder league. 

Now, just a week after being promoted, Agustín Ramírez legitimately enters into the conversation. The Marlins’ new 23-year-old starting catcher and former Yankee prospect (sigh) had nothing left to prove in MiLB, evidenced in a ridiculous 600 PA career MiLB pace (.268 BA/103 Runs/108 RBI/29 HR/24 SB). Maybe it’s the fantasy geek in me, but the steals and runs scored really pop off the page—precisely the kind of ability to fill the stat sheet voters fawn over.

Not to stress tiny samples, but pricing in these markets is extremely fluid so you have to react quick—and the results so far in the big show validate the front office’s decision to make the call. In just five MLB games, Ramirez has posted fewer strikeouts (2) than home runs (3), including a couple of +105 MPH lasers out to left center. 

Again, granted the sample’s smaller than small it’s still been beyond impressive. According to OptaSTATS on social media, only one MLB rookie has put up a .700 BA, 1.400 SLG, +5 XBH, +1 SB, 0 K over any 3-game span in the modern era—and his name is Agustín Ramírez.

Perhaps most importantly for our prospects of cashing this future has to do with opportunities and plate appearances, which can be limited at the dish for a backstop. Luckily one once, the Marlins’ ineptitude on offense will serve as a benefit—in both games he wasn’t strapping on catcher’s gear, Ramirez served as the cleanup hitter in a DH role. Given the combination of opportunity, talent and lack of dominant competition, he could be a market favorite before you know it.

🧮⚾Betting Research Center—MLBMA Algo™ Data⚾🧮

Today’s SP Sheet

For anyone still interested in daily MLB betting on a more granular level, hit me up anytime on X @JohnLaghezza. I provide my world-famous starting pitching sheets and MLB Moving Averages Algorithm results seven days a week to the betting public.

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