What else is in today’s newsletter?

• Look Into My Crystal Ball—Slow And Steady

• The New York Prop Exchange—Slot Machine

Look Into My Crystal Ball🏈🔮—Slow And Steady

Los Angeles finally sends its offense onto the field as one, returning beef to the O-line off the IR and without either star WR on the injury report. Expect Sean McVay to do his usual thing, slamming Kyren Williams into the front seven for three yards and a cloud of dust. That is, until the opposition cheats up on defense and Stafford goes over the top. The Rams rank top-3 in total play-action passes and yards gained off them so you know LA is licking its lips, just waiting to queue up those calls at the right time. 

It’s the first half of McVay’s equation I’m focusing on for today’s first player prop. Kyren boasts one of the highest rush shares in the league, second in total rushes behind only Derrick Henry. That said, it’s quantity over quality—Kyren’s workload is a function of understanding assignments through mistake-free ball, not exuding talent on the field. 

Check out where Kyren Williams’ ranks among all 46 RBs with +50 rush attempts.

• 3.7 Yards Per Carry: 41st

• -0.5 Yards Over Expectation Per Rush: T-45th

• 2.5 Yards After Contact Per Rush: 43rd

• 1 +20-Yard Carry: T-40th

• 10.7 MPH Average Max Speed: 43rd

Point being, when I say three yards and a cloud of dust I mean it. Yes, Kyren’s going to get the rock and presumably rack up yardage, but those respective props lines currently sit above my mean projections. I’m leaning into what can only be described as a lack of backfield explosivity. 

Of course, we’ll need the Dolphins to hold up their end of the bargain. Can’t call the MIA rush defense great since the LB tackling is average at best. However, 4.0 YPC and just a single +20-yard carry since coming off the bye against tough competition (IND, ARI, BUF) stands on its own.

Last note for reference—of 161 attempts so far this season, Kyren ran only 2 (or 1.2%) clear of tonight’s bar for longest rush.

THE BET: Kyren Williams Longest Rush Under 15.5 Yards (-120) BET 365

🏈 BetMGM believes in Second Chances!

Place a First-TD bet. If your pick scores the 2nd TD of the game, get your CASH BACK!

Did you miss a pro football bet on a First Touchdown Scorer? You can still earn your stake back in cash if that player scores the game’s second touchdown! BetMGM’s new “Second Chance” promotion allows anyone who places a straight bet on a player to score the game’s first touchdown to automatically win back their wager if that player scores the second touchdown.

Sign up now and take advantage of BetMGM’s incredible offer for new users: up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets if your first bet doesn’t win. That’s right, place your first bet, and if it doesn’t hit, BetMGM will cover you with up to $1,500 in bonus bets.

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

👀 Claudia and Thor identify the Week 12 Early College Football Betting Lines.

📺 Ian and Dwain have the Week 10 Instant Recap to help get you ready for the week ahead.

🏈 Puka Nacua over how many receiving yards? Check out the MNF Player Props.

🧨 Could there be fireworks at SoFi Stadium tonight? Matt LaMarca looks at all betting angles for Dolphins-Rams on MNF.

🌋 Will Ravens-Steelers be another AFC North brawl? Matt LaMarca uncovers the Early Week 11 Betting Lines.

The New York Prop Exchange🏈🏛️—Don’t Jonnu?

The further I dig into this one, the less I’m loving the potential for fireworks implied by Vegas’ 48.5 game total. LA, in particular, played really well on defense during its win streak—it’s hard to fake leading the league in defensive EPA/play against decent competition. McVay’s so difficult to get a beat on stylistically because the foundation is heavily predicated on deception, which leads to the elevated 40% pressure rate and over 13 hurries per game. I’ve noticed a slight struggle in covering tight ends, an unsurprising result of deploying so many 6-DB dime packages. Just last week A.J. Barner made four grabs. Why can’t Jonnu Smith?

I alluded to Miami’s pass distribution up top and as a collective we have to stop wishcasting our own desires onto the field. And I’m guilty myself, having tied up cash in Jaylen Waddle shares via fantasy, futures, etc. That said, betting (and life in general for that matter) is all about adaptation and knowing when to pull the cord to reverse course. What I mean is, it’s less about if you were wrong than when you were wrong and for how long before correcting.

If you stripped nameplates off the jerseys there would be no question who the clear second fiddle and dominant slot wideout is behind Tyreek Hill since the bye—look at Smith’s leads across a laundry list of critical stats during that span:

• Targets: +9

• Receptions: +9

• Receiving Yards: +110

• Target Per Route: +13.4%

• Yards Per Route: +1.51

• Yards After Catch Per Reception: +1.7

• Team Target Share: +10.3%

So why is Jonnu Smith’s reception prop set at O3.5 even though Tua’s back with an inflated game total and Smith has cleared that bar in each of the last four games? I’m not sure, but I have a sneaking suspicion the (-110) price tag won’t last.

THE BET: Jonnu Smith O3.5 Receptions (-110) DraftKings

The Sharps Like The Under Tonight

By Mike Mutnansky

Source: Sharp Hunter

Week 11 in the NFL wraps up in LA with the Rams hosting the Dolphins. 

The Rams find themselves as a 2.5-point favorite. We’re looking at a consensus 49 total, but there are some 48.5s out there, depending on where you’re betting. 

At Sharp Hunter, we track bets from sharp bettors to give us an idea of where the sharp money is going. 

Not just in the NFL, but College Football and in the NBA as well. 

Our sharps are focusing on the under Monday night, as we’re showing a Two-Bag Sharp Score to back that up.

I am with the sharps with this Monday Night under 49 for a few reasons. 

The stats say the Dolphins are going to try and run the ball here and slow this game down. Miami is running the ball over 53% of the time in neutral-pace situations—third most in the NFL. 

With the Rams getting healthy on offense, it will not be a surprise to see them try and run the ball against the 27th-ranked run defense in DVOA. More running from both teams will slow the game down and help the under. 

I can see this game playing out with the Dolphins in chase mode and never getting there against this surging Rams team. 

Then there is this trend from Action Network: The under is 97-80-3 in games where a team is coming off a +10-point comeback in the previous week. The Rams had a comeback like that last week against Seattle. 

In this case, the trend is our friend. 

It makes sense right? You expend all that energy and your offense can’t really fire the next week. 

I like the Rams to win on Monday Night. I like the Rams to make the playoffs. And given the setup on Monday, I’m with the sharps as far as the total goes—UNDER 49 for me.

Win your leagues. Win your bets. Get 12 months of fantasy football and sports betting coverage with FantasyLife+.

Email subscribers get a 10% discount with code FAMILY.