What is in today’s newsletter?

1. It’s the PGA’s final regular-season event. Find out who the trends are pointing toward.

2. College Football Preview: Diving into the MAC for 2024

3. Watercooler: The White Sox man… Sheesh

Wyndham Championship Preview

by Geoff Ulrich

Sedgefield Country Club is an older Donald Ross-designed venue. At just over 7,100 yards, the venue isn’t going to intimidate players with length but it does route tightly around several tree-lined fairways and the odd water hazard, that will penalize off-line shots. 

The course also features nine par 4s that measure between 370 yards to 450 yards in length, making precision off the tee, and great short iron play a must this week. 2023 winner Lucas Glover led the field in driving accuracy last season (82%) and 10 of the past 12 winners of this event have now finished inside the top 15 for driving accuracy for the week of their win. 

Glover also gained 9.1 strokes on approach last year and three of the last five winners have gained over 5.0 strokes on approach for the week of their win.

I’ve emphasized short-term approach play as much as possible this week as it also tends to be a reliable indicator of players who are breaking out in that area. Both Glover and Tom Kim (the 2022 winner) gained over 6.0 strokes on approach in one of their final two starts before winning at Sedgefield. Overall, five of the last six winners of the Wyndham gained over 4.0 strokes on approach—in at least one of their previous four starts—BEFORE winning this event.

With those trends in mind, here’s one player I bet when the odds were released this Monday.

Nicolai Højgaard Each-Way 1/4 Top 5 (+5000; bet365)

Højgaard, who finished solo seventh in Paris, sits 80th in the FedEx Cup standings, so it will take a huge effort for him to move into the top 70. However, the Dane is a great young player whose talent level is reminiscent of some past winners of this event: Tom Kim (2022) and Si Woo Kim (2016). These two managed to book their first-ever PGA wins at Sedgefield. 

At 23, Højgaard is already somewhat of an experienced winner (three-time European Tour wins) and a player who has shown an affinity for shootouts, having seen two of his three professional wins come when the winning score exceeded 21-under. 

He also booked a solo runner-up finish on the PGA back in January at the Farmers and has been gaining multiple strokes on approach nearly every week, including a +6.5 approach effort at the Scottish Open two starts ago. He also gained over 3.0 strokes tee-to-green per round on the field in Paris. 

His putter needs to wake up but he did gain 6.7 strokes putting at Sedgefield CC last season on his way to a top-14 finish, and is hitting the ball far better now than he was at this point last season. 

Højgaard has gone off as low as +1600 in a PGA event this season (Corales, March) so at + ... we are still getting some decent value off his peak form from early in 2024, making him an easy outright and top-five bet for me in this weaker field.

🐶 Anyone Ready to Draft?

If you’re itching to start your fantasy football journey, now’s the perfect time!

With Underdog Fantasy, you don’t have to wait for the preseason to conclude, you can draft your team right NOW! Tournaments like Best Ball Mania V and The Eliminator are still open for entries! Dive into the action TODAY and compete for massive prizes!

There's more to Underdog Fantasy than just drafting! Check out their Pick'em games today!

Sign up today with our promo code: LIFE to get a Special Pick in the Pick 'em lobby AND up to $250 in Bonus Cash on your first deposit!

Mid-American Conference 2024 Betting Preview

by Thor Nystrom 

Ahead of the 2024 College Football season, I will be providing my college football best bets, organized by division. Not every team will have a bet that I am comfortable with for the season, and this will be noted.

To the left of each team name below, you will see a number. This is where the team ranks in my combined power rankings of the FBS and FCS. This is why some teams are ranked lower than 134, the number of teams in the FBS. 

My strength-of-schedule metrics below is out of those 134 teams in the FBS. While many use last year’s records—or projected 2024 records—for strength of schedule, my metrics stack schedules by the average strength of weekly opponents using my power ratings. This gives a more accurate gauge of the actual opponents being played. You can also access my full College Football Power Rankings for 2024.

The returning production numbers below come courtesy of ESPN’s Bill Connelly.

Below is where I stand on the Mid-Atlantic Conference (MAC) for 2024.

69. Miami (OH) Redhawks

• Returning starters: 6 offense, 6 defense

• Returning production: 42 | Offense: 54 | Defense: 40

I referred to last year’s Miami squad as the “Iowa Hawkeyes of the G5.” The Redhawks had arguably the nation’s best special teams unit, a top-20 overall defense (15.9 PPG allowed), and a run-heavy offense that chipped away at the sticks and kept the clock running. This year’s team must replace RB1 Rashad Amos (transferred to Ole Miss), WR1 Gage Larvadain (transferred to South Carolina), and All-American K Graham Nicholson (transferred to Alabama). But there’s a chance it’ll be just as good as last year’s 11-3 team.

QB1 Brett Gabbert made it eight games before a season-ending injury in 2023. The offense became even more run-heavy at that point, narrowing Miami’s margin for error. But Gabbert is back. And while there will be new starters at RB and WR, there’s a solid mix of program veterans and P4 portal imports.

The best news offensively is an OL that returns four starters. Defensively, Miami’s stellar LB corps returns both Matt Salopek and Ty Wise, who combined for 166 tackles last year. The Redhawks have the MAC’s best defense.

• Strength of Schedule: 100

• Thor’s Projected Win Total: 8.6

• Las Vegas Win Total: 7.5

• Thor’s Bet: Over

The one thing standing in the way of a repeat 11-win season? The schedule.

Miami plays Northwestern, Cincinnati, and Notre Dame in the non-con (Cincy comes to Oxford). In MAC play, meanwhile, Miami must travel to Toledo. The Rockets were the only team other than Miami (FL) to beat the Redhawks last regular season.

Either way, the Vegas win total seems exceedingly light in lieu of what Miami returns. We’re going over.

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of football nerds:

🫠 The Chicago White Sox just completed the reverse Moneyball. 20 straight games without a win.

🤏 The men’s 100m final was the closest race in Olympic history. American Noah Lyles’ lean at the end was the difference.

🥇 Scottie Scheffler gobbled up the gold in Paris. He was +1400 before Round 4, but shot a course-record 62 on Sunday.

🤔 Could a big shakeup be coming in San Francisco? The clock is ticking on a Brandon Aiyuk deal.

🏈 ICYMI: Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year breakdowns. Will the WRs outshine the QBs?

Keep the edge in your league with our basic Tier 1 package. Or become merciless with our advanced Tier 2 package. Email subscribers get a 10% discount with code FAMILY