🪝 Getting the Hook

By hook or by crook, what is an extra half-point actually worth?

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I hope you had a great Thanksgiving, full of what matters most: People, pie, pigskin, and parlays!

Especially the last three.

And now it’s time to feast on the Thanksgiving leftovers.

While Sunday’s games might not be as appetizing as the three from Thursday, they’re still 1) football and 2) bettable, so let’s dig in.

This week, we have a lot of games hovering around the key number of +/-3 (as of Sat. 11/25 at 1 pm ET).

• Giants +3.5 vs. Patriots

• Colts -2.5 vs. Buccaneers

• Panthers +3.5 at Titans

• Steelers -2.5 at Bengals

• Rams -2.5 at Cardinals

• Bills +3 at Eagles

• Chargers +3 or +3.5 vs. Ravens

I won’t touch on all these games individually. (I have a word count I need to pretend to try to adhere to.) You can see all the positions we have on these games in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.

But I do want to explore the way that games around +/-3 have historically played out (via the Action Network database, regular season only since 2003).

🐶 +3.5 Underdogs

Getting the hook — the extra half-point — is enticing for bettors. At +3, an underdog backer pushes if the game settles on a field goal. At +3.5, the bet cashes. Theoretically, that key +0.5 is tremendously valuable.

In actuality, though, it has been a value trap.

• +3.5 Underdogs (ATS): 257-260 (-4.7% ROI)

• +3.5 Underdogs (ML): 195-321-1 (-0.2% ROI)

Bettors who have backed +3.5 underdogs against the spread (ATS) have basically paid the vig over the past 20-plus years. In fact, they would’ve been better off ignoring the extra half point and instead betting the dogs on the moneyline (ML).

Side Note: I’ve written previously about the value of betting ML (vs. ATS) underdogs.

If a line closes at +3.5, that means the underdog wasn’t strong enough in the market to force sportsbooks to move to the key number +3. And that seems significant.

🐕 +3 Underdogs

If an underdog is strong enough to compel the books to price it at +3, that has been a profitably bullish indicator.

• +3 Underdogs (ATS): 398-355-76 (3.0% ROI)

• +3 Underdogs (ML): 349-479-1 (2.5% ROI) 

Many of the underdogs to close +3 should probably have been +2.5 or even shorter — but misguided market enthusiasm for the favorites kept them at +3.

💩 -2.5 Favorites

Favorites of -2.5 — like underdogs of +3.5 — are attractive because of the hook. If you like a favorite, you’d much rather invest at -2.5 than -3.

Alas, no.

• -2.5 Favorites (ATS): 165-191 (-11.4% ROI)

• -2.5 Favorites (ML): 183-170-3 (-9.9% ROI) 

Short favorites that get the hook but don’t garner enough respect to get up to -3 — they have been notably negative ATS and ML bets for years.

All of this doesn’t mean that all +3.5 underdogs and -2.5 favorites should be shunned and all +3 underdogs should be bet. But this is information to keep in mind when making decisions around +/-3.

For everything you need for Week 12 — including our inactives page, which will update shortly after 11:30 am ET with all of the relevant status updates — you can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.

See our suite of tools to get you ready for today’s slate below:

Every week, Matthew Freedman writes an article with five of his favorite player props. Here are a couple of them, which you can find (along with lots of other bets) in our 100% FREE bet tracker.

⬇️ Travis Etienne Under 16.5 Carries (-123, Caesars)

• My Projection: 15.1

• Cutoff: 15.5

In Week 8, Etienne’s carry prop was a season-high 17.5, so we’re not far off from his ceiling at the current number — but his usage dipped dramatically since the Week 9 bye (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Tool).

• Weeks 1-8: 81% snap rate | 83% rush share | 18.75 carries per game

• Weeks 10-11: 64% snap rate | 51% rush share | 11.5 carries per game

Some of this is likely due to game script. In Week 10, the Jaguars lost by 31 points. In Week 11, they won by 20. In neither contest did the Jaguars need Etienne to carry a full workload.

But for his career, Etienne has averaged 14.6 carries per game, and the Texans’ defense is much more exploitable via the air than the ground (per RBs Don’t Matter).

• Texans Dropback EPA: 0.065 (No. 22)

• Texans Rush EPA: -0.133 (No. 8)

If the game stays close, we could see more of a pass-heavy attack from the Jaguars. And if the game gets out of hand either way, we could see Etienne lose snaps.

💣 Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 INTs (+135, bet365)

• My Projection: +104.8

• Cutoff: +120

I’ll state the obvious: Mahomes is having a down year. A lot of that is due to his pass catchers. It’s not his fault.

Even so, the results speak for themselves.

This year, Mahomes has nine INTs across seven of 10 games.

I don’t think of the Raiders as being good on defense, but they have 10 INTs in seven of 11 games.

I think Mahomes is likely to avoid an INT this week — but just barely — and the +135 odds give us a lot of wiggle room for a QB who doesn’t mind taking chances.

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Welcome to Week 12 of Bets from the Group Chat, where I (Geoff Ulrich) elicit information from my Fantasy Life colleagues about their bets.

After a couple of near misses, the group chat parlay record has moved to 3-4. The good news is that we’re still up +13.39 units overall since this started (assuming one unit bet per parlay).

We are 4-2 on the individual plays over the last two weeks and 16-5 since inception.

Three separate bets, from three different sources, for our parlay as well as the weekly ladder target are below.

1️⃣ Mark Drumheller Likes: Ravens -3.0 (-110, BetMGM)

• Play to: -115

Here are Mark’s own words from our FREE bet tracker: 

“Ravens getting healthy with Stanley back, and Flowers expected to give it a go. LA missing Everett is key against a solid Ravens defense that has the personnel to lock up the Chargers limited weapons. LA's rush defense is mid from a success rate and EPA per rush perspective when you filter out garbage time (20th on first downs).”

2️⃣ Geoff & Freedman Likes: Rams -2.5 and Kyren Williams 60+ rushing yards (+185, BetMGM) 

Williams is back in the lead role (after an IR stint) and Sean McVay confirmed he’ll be given his usual workload. For reference, Williams went for over 100 yards and over 20 attempts in two of his last three games before hitting IR and is playing the Cardinals, who have allowed the third most yards to opposing RBs. 

If we like Williams to have a good day then we should like a Rams cover as well. In those two games where Williams sailed over 60+ rushing yards the Rams covered on each occasion. L.A. is also facing a Cardinals offense that may be down two WRs – Michael Wilson (out) and Marquise Brown (questionable) – and will have a weaker D-Line than usual with DL Kevin Strong ruled out, and more key defensive players listed as questionable.

🤝 Putting It All Together: +613, BetMGM

• Ravens -3.0 (-120)

• SGP: Rams 2.5 & Kyren Williams 60+ rush yards (+185)

📈 Week 12 Ladder Bet - George Pickens, WR - Steelers (BetMGM)

• 50+ rec yards (+110) - play to +100

• 75+ rec yards (+330) - play to +310

• 100+ rec yards (+700) - play to +650

Cincinnati has now allowed 43 explosive pass plays (20+ yards) on the season (third-most) and will be without their top corner in Cam Britt-Taylor this week. Despite the poor stretch of late, Pickens has gone for 100+ yards in three of 10 games this season, and should be freed up for more targets this week with OC Matt Canada finally being let go by the team. 

Given that we have now seen five different WRs go for 80+ yards against the Bengals in their last four games, playing Pickens through 75+ and 100+ yards this week looks like a solid upside venture for Week 12.

🔙 Thanksgiving redux: The Dak MVP enthusiasm is near its peak.

✈️ Black Friday lookback: Bad QBs have bad backups…

📊 Taking a look at the smart kid’s homework. Where sharps are betting for Week 12.

💰 Need more plays? We’re up +25.0 units in the last 30 days and have over 25-plus FREE bets waiting for you.

📺 When a marketing exec thinks that “less than 1%” means “0%”: Jevon Hallond’s 99-yard Hail Mary pick-six costs TCL USA $1M.

🥧 “You don’t score, until you score.” Touchdown bets for Week 12.

🤔 A new business idea. I don’t see how it could fail.

🔪 The sharp definition of “expected value”: Model + bugs + execution.

🚨 Last-minute bets, anyone? We’ve got you covered before kickoff.

🎧 Evergreen podcast: Football bonded them. Then it tore them apart.

We’ve got a sneaky good matchup between the Ravens and Chargers on Sunday Night Football. Matt LaMarca dives into his favorite bets for this contest.

Lamar Jackson vs. Justin Herbert — doesn’t get much better than that. The Chargers continue to invent new games to lose each week, but they’re one of the more entertaining teams in football. Seven of their 10 games have been one-score contests, and six of them have been decided by four points or fewer. With the Ravens dealing with some key injuries, can they pull off the upset?

👍 Best Bet: Chargers +3.5 (-115; BetMGM)

This line is down to Chargers +3.0 across most of the industry, but you can still find a +3.5 on BetMGM. Three is the most important key number in the NFL, so getting a reasonably priced +3.5 when the rest of the market is at 3.0 is a huge deal.

While the Ravens offense has been humming of late, they will have to overcome some crucial injuries. Mark Andrews is out and Odell Beckham is considered a game-time decision, while Zay Flowers and star left tackle Ronnie Stanley are also banged up. Flowers and Stanley are both expected to play, but they could be at less than 100%.

Additionally, grabbing the points with a star quarterback is almost always a good idea. Herbert has been an underdog of more than a field goal in just 12 career games, and he’s a near-flawless 10-2 ATS in that split. He’s a perfect 3-0 ATS as a home underdog of more than a field goal.

⬆️ Top Prop: Gus Edwards Anytime Touchdown (+110; Caesars)

I’m not sure why Edwards is always available at better than even money in the touchdown market, but I’m certainly not complaining. While Keaton Mitchell’s role in the offense might be growing, Edwards remains the man around the goal line. He has 86% of the carries from inside the five-yard line since Week 6, and he’s scored nine touchdowns in his past five games. That includes at least one score in all five contests.

The Chargers are also not shy about letting running backs find the endzone. They’ve allowed an average of 1.2 rushing touchdowns per game this season, which ranks tied for 26th in the league.

🚀 Same-Game Parlay (+1429; FanDuel)

• Chargers +3.5

• Over 48.5

• Edwards anytime touchdown

• Rashod Bateman 40+ receiving yards

I’m going to keep this one pretty simple. I’m starting by combining the Chargers +3.5 with Over 48.5 points. I think the most likely way for the Chargers to cover is in a shootout. Even with all the Ravens’ offensive injuries, the Chargers are going to have trouble slowing them down defensively.

After that, I’m going with an Edwards anytime touchdown — possibly my favorite bet in this contest — and at least 40 receiving yards for Bateman. With the Ravens’ pass-catchers banged up, Bateman is someone who could be asked to help pick up the slack. He’s already had a 15% target share over the past three contests, so don’t be surprised if he has his best week of the season.