What is in today’s newsletter?

1. Win Total Over/Unders for the 2024-25 NBA season. Who stands out as too high or too low?

2. Mark Drumheller

3. Jarren Duran wins the All-Star MVP at massive odds, but did anyone care to bet him?

Best Bets for the 2024 Open Championship

by Geoff Ulrich

Patrick Cantlay Outright (+4400; FanDuel)

• Top 10 (+400; DraftKings)

While there is still reason to be skeptical of betting on Cantlay at a major, I also feel confident that the mix of price and timing for the American has never been better. 

Despite coming into this year’s Open off a T5 at the Travelers and a T3 at the year’s third major, the seven-time PGA winner remains available at +4000 or bigger in the outright market, levels that are far bigger than the +2200 price we were getting on him at this event in 2023. That 2023 price is also a good reminder that we’ve often seen Cantlay go off in majors at the same level — or with even lower odds — than recent PGA Championship winner Xander Schauffele (+1100), who is now rightfully being rated as one of the event favorites. 

Schauffele indeed has the much fuller trophy case (for now), but the skill level between the two men is likely minimal at best, and both Cantlay’s putter and approach game have impressed of late. Either way, with Cantlay having outperformed Schauffele in each of his last two starts, the 25-30.0-point gap in odds right now just feels like too much.

Victor Perez Each-Way 1/5 Top 12 (+16000; bet365)

• Top 20 (+500; bet365)

After hitting top 10 (+1400) and top 20 (+650) bets with Romain Langasque (3rd Scottish Open) last week, I felt obliged to include at least one Frenchman in my Open Championship bets as well. It wasn’t a hard sell either as Victor Perez is a player I’ve had my eye on all season. He’s already produced two top-five finishes (T3 Canada; T3 Puerto Rico) and is a gifted ball striker with a knack for producing some low final rounds. 

Perez is coming off a very solid week in Scotland where he gained 6.0 strokes putting and has also been great off the tee in his last two starts, gaining over 2.0 strokes in that area on both occasions. If he can get back to his baseline with his irons, he could surprise at Troon, a course that is sure to reward the top ball strikers in the field. 

Tiger Woods to Make the Cut (+230; FanDuel)

There are some things you just don’t do in life. You don’t go to Costco on the weekends. You don't tell your wife to calm down. You don’t draft kickers before round 17. And, most importantly, you don’t blatantly disrespect Tiger Woods. 

Fortunately for us, Colin Montgomerie recently chose to ignore that last statement. 

I’ll also just note that Tiger looks a little slimmer to me since we last saw him at Pinehurst and has what looks like a decent draw (TH PM / FRI AM) – which would see him miss the worst of the wind on the first two days. With a shorter course where experience should reign over power, I’ll happily play him down to +150 in this market. 

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Rookie Season-Long Player Props To Bet

by Matthew Freedman

I've recently updated my 2024 NFL player projections (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription), so now I'm diving into the rookie season-long player props market.

In case you missed it, check out my previous thoughts on the rookie futures and awards markets (logged in our FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker).

Jayden Daniels: Over 3,025.5 Yards Passing

• Bet: -112 (FanDuel)

• Projection: 3,474.4

It's hard for a rookie QB drafted in Round 1 to start at least 14 games and not have more than 3,025.5 yards passing.

Over the past decade, just one QB has managed to thread that unfortunate needle: Bryce Young.

• Bryce Young (16 games, 2023): 2,877 yards

• C.J. Stroud (15 games, 2023): 4,108 yards

• Trevor Lawrence (17 games, 2021): 3,641 yards

• Mac Jones (17 games, 2021): 3,801 yards

• Justin Herbert (15 games, 2020): 4,336 yards

• Kyler Murray (16 games, 2019): 3,722 yards

• Carson Wentz (16 games, 2016): 3,782 yards

• Jameis Winston (16 games, 2015): 4,042 yards

So unless Daniels ends up missing more than a few games or having one of the most disappointing rookie seasons of all time, this should be a mark he can hit.

Rome Odunze: Over 675.5 Yards Receiving

• Bet: -110 (DraftKings)

• Projection: 820.4

OK, I need to say something. Generally, I hate betting overs. In season-long markets especially, unders tend to be sharp.

And betting the over on a rookie slated to be the No. 3 WR on a team with a rookie QB … that just feels gross. I hate myself a little bit for highlighting three overs in a row.

I mean, I hate myself anyway, as a general state of being. But now I hate myself a smidgeon more because of the streak of overs.

But I'm talking about rookies, who stand in stark contrast to veterans. Sportsbooks have a decent sense for how to set lines for established players, but rookies present a challenge that the books (in my opinion) struggle to address adequately. Instead of projecting rookies in a forward-thinking and realistically expansive manner, they often underestimate them and discount the potential they have to earn opportunities and accumulate production.

As a result, I think it's possible (maybe even probable?) that the sharp side for rookies is actually the over.

And that brings us to Odunze, who (like MarvinHarrison and MalikNabers) was selected in the top 10 in April after earning All-American accolades in 2023.

Despite being the third option behind WRs D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen, Odunze has the talent and draft capital to exceed expectations within an offense likely to be revitalized with the offseason addition of talent-laden QB Caleb Williams.

I'm yet to see a high-quality projection set that has Odunze projected below even 775.5 yards receiving.

The latest betting nuggets, silliness, and gossip from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

⚾ Jarren Duran +4500 is your MLB All-Star Game MVP. He had big odds but was far from a popular pick.

🫠 First Ricky Pearsall goes on the NFI list and now this bombshell from Brandon Aiyuk. The 49ers WR room can’t catch a break.

🌬️ The wind at Royal Troon this week is going to be a factor. Ludvig Aberg’s drive may still be in orbit.

📈 Death, taxes, and NFL bettors hammering the over.Seriously, people, you are allowed to bet unders!

🏈 Four trends from 2023 to note before you draft in 2024. This QB’s ADP is still insanely low.

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