🎵 Don’t Call it a Comeback!

Comeback Player of the Year: Maybe it’s not a foregone conclusion???

In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by GameBlazers:

I’m not a math wizard — by my calculations, I’m up +10K units against the spread this year — but I know enough arithmetic to suss out that nine is half of 18, which means we’re at the halfway point of the NFL season.

So this is an excellent time to revisit the NFL futures and awards markets — and that’s what I did (with Austin Gayle of the Ringer) on this week’s Bigger Picture episode of the Betting Life Show.

While we covered all the major awards and futures, I want to dive deeper into the Comeback Player of the Year market because 1) it’s compelling, and 2) it might finally offer us some value.

📉 Damar Hamlin: -110 (DraftKings) 

In May, Hamlin was -650 to win this award after suffering an in-game heart attack in Week 17 last year. And even though his odds steadily improved throughout the summer, he was still -200 after Week 1, when he was made a gameday inactive, and his relative standing on the depth chart was made evident.

Since then, his odds have slowly crept up to the -110 available now. (I’m writing this on Wed. 11/8 at 3:30 pm ET, by the way.)

What has changed since May?

Almost nothing…

He has played far less than last year when he was an injury fill-in. He’s yet to see a defensive snap this year, and he has suited up for just one game — Week 4 — when he played 18 snaps on special teams.

But here’s the thing: Hamlin was never expected to be a big part of the Bills defense this year, and his candidacy for CPOY has never been based on his on-field impact.

It’s based solely on this simple fact: He died on a football field (if only for a brief period) — and then he survived.

Before writing this, I texted some media-informed NFL experts about Hamlin. They all said they still think he wins CPOY… and I’ve logged a bet on him in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.

But some of my social media followers aren’t sold on Hamlin.

And if not Hamlin, then who should win CPOY?

✈️ Aaron Rodgers: +3000 (FanDuel) 

One of my media-savvy experts — let’s say that his name rhymes with “Batthew Merry” — said this: “Only variable is if Rodgers comes back.”

I agree. And Rodgers looks like he’s coming back.

As unbelievable as that sounds, it’s true. He already looks like an NFL QB who’s starting to get loose.

On the Pat McAfee Show this week, Rodgers said — when asked about the timeline for his return — “It’s gonna be a few fortnights.”

That’s Week 16. Christmas Eve.

Do you believe in miracles?

Looking at the team’s schedule, I don’t think Rodgers’ “few fortnights” comment was a haphazard or random projection. I believe he has been targeting Week 16 since the beginning of his recovery.

In the final month of the season, that’s the Jets’ one home game, and it’s a relatively soft landing against the Commanders, whereas the team plays the Dolphins, Browns, and Patriots on the road in Weeks 15 & 17-18.

I believe that only a superstar has a realistic chance to beat out Hamlin for CPOY — and in Rodgers, the NFL has that star, one who will have beaten incredibly long odds if he returns to action this year.

I wish I had thought about Rodgers more as a realistic option a couple of weeks ago — when he was +9000 — but better late than never.

I’ve bet a half unit on Rodgers at +3000 so that if Hamlin wins, I’ll profit a little, and if Rodgers wins, I’ll profit a lot. That feels like the right balance. And if neither wins, then, meh, I’ve lost only 1.5 units — and as you’re probably aware, I’ve lost more than that at various times this season.

May the gods of gambling grant Rodgers a speedy recovery.

Our friends at The Hammer Betting Network have been adding their favorite Week 10 bets to our Free Bet Tracker. Here’s one of the latest courtesy of Hitman…

What’s the best way to play midseason futures? Jason Scavone from Unabated breaks down how to approach the totals market…

The total in Sunday’s Seahawks-Commanders game opened at some books at 45. Now it’s 45.5.

If you liked the Over at 45, is it worth a bet at 45.5?

A few things go into answering that, including how you value a half-point in NFL totals. (That’s kind of a complicated question you need to use some data science to answer, but there are shortcuts available.)

But the other thing to keep in mind here is whether 45 is a key number. 

In the Week 8 Thursday Betting Life Newsletter, we talked about key numbers in spreads. Namely, 3, 6 and 7. These are the margins most likely to decide NFL games. For example, if you can get -2.5 when most books are at -3, you’re in great shape. 

When the game ends Detroit 24, Los Angeles 21, you’ll win on Lions -2.5. Your buddy who settled for -3 has to take a push. Feel free to taunt him the whole week over it.

Key numbers are so significant that buying on or off them at the right price can be worth it. (That is, paying extra, say, to get a team at -6.5 when the line is -7 and so on.) The fair price is about 10 cents to move on or off the 7, 19 cents to move on or off the 3, and 8 cents to move on or off the 6.

The concept of key numbers isn’t just for spreads, either. There are key numbers in totals, too. 

They’re almost always odd numbers, which should intuitively make sense. Ties are un-American, but they’re still possible in the NFL. Those ties dilute the value of totals that end in even numbers because every so often you get the Giants and Commanders bumbling their way to a 20-20 final. (Or the Colts and Texans. Take your pick. Last year was filthy with ties.)

With that in mind, here are the totals worth the most when betting: 41, 37, 43, 45, 51, 47, and 50 (there’s your lone even-number representative). 

As is the case with spreads, you can buy onto and off of those numbers. Sportsbooks will let you pay a little extra to take 45.5 to 45. But typically, it’s not worth it. Usually, it’s worth about 6 to 9 cents to move the number, and the books, knowing this, will charge at least 10 cents.

“A-ha!” you say aloud. “If it’s good to move a spread from +2.5 up to +8.5 in a 6-point teaser because it passes through key numbers of 3 and 7, then surely it’s worth moving an under 6 points from 36 to 42 and pass through the key numbers of 37 and 41.”

We like where your head’s at, but no. Each point in a spread is worth proportionally more. Total points are much less valuable, so the overall effect of moving totals is diluted compared to moving spreads. You can check this out using a teaser calculator to see how your expected value changes by teasing spreads and totals.

So, if you’re not buying points or teasing totals to end up on favorable numbers, what’s the next best thing you can do? 

Line shop.

Make sure you have accounts at as many outlets as possible in your jurisdiction, and get in the habit of checking all the books available to you before you bet. (You can do this easily by using an odds screen.) Don’t settle for over 45 at BetBall Sportsbook when over 44.5 is next door at BallerBet Sportsbook. 

These are simple things you can do that will significantly impact your bottom line. Some could even say they’re a key part of unlocking your potential to profit. We won’t because puns are the lowest form of humor. But some could.

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🐈‍⬛ The Vikings just won a game with Josh Dobbs off the bench… and yet they’re still the league’s unluckiest team.

🌎 Christian McCaffrey: On the verge of TD history!

📊 Johnny Cash isn’t the only one who walks the line. Betting lines (and best bets) to monitor for Week 10.

🙏 Prayer yards? Maybe it’s time to bet the over on Chris Olave’s receiving props.

⬆️ 57% sounds like a high number: This defense might be the NFL’s best overall.

🎧 Battlefields to ballfields: Not all referees are terrible humans.

⛔️ So we probably won’t be betting Bijan Robinson anytime TD anytime soon. “Coaching malpractice” is a phrase you don’t hear often enough.

🪢 When a team has competing incentives: Maybe we should bet on a tie???

💰Looking for more Thursday Night Football bets? We’ve got you covered.

You can access everything you need for Bears vs. Panthers in our Game Hub, including projection guidance, bets, and more. Looking for a peek behind the curtain? We’ve got you covered.

Week 10 kicks off TONIGHT with an EXHILERATING matchup matchup between the Bears and Panthers. Matt LaMarca is here to break it all down from a betting angle…

I’m not sure what we did to deserve Bears-Panthers in primetime, but it’s what we’re getting on Thursday Night Football. Still, just because a game might not be “good” or “enjoyable” or “worth watching” doesn’t mean we can’t still try to make some money off it.

The Bears are currently -3.5 home favorites, while the total sits at 38.5.

Let’s take a look at some of my TNF favorite wagers.

👍 Best Bet: Panthers +3.5 (-108, FanDuel)

When two bad teams meet at this point in this season, taking the points is usually the right idea. In matchups between two teams with a winning percentage of 25% or worse, the underdog is 136-95-6 ATS since 2005. That’s good for a +14.3% return on investment.

Ultimately, it’s hard to see that big of a difference between these two squads. They’re both in the bottom four in terms of EPA/play defensively, and outside of a solid showing vs. the Raiders, Tyson Bagent has been just as bad as Bryce Young. At least Young has a pedigree we can get excited about in a plus matchup.

☝️ Top Prop: Bryce Young Over 31.5 attempts (-120, DraftKings)

Young’s rookie season has basically been a disaster, especially when compared to No. 2 overall pick C.J. Stroud. Young has eight passing TDs in seven games this season, while Stroud had five last week. Considering that the Bears own their 2023 first-round pick, trading up for Young and passing on Stroud could go down as an all-time disaster for the Panthers.

Still, the jury is out on Young, and he managed to beat Stroud in a head-to-head matchup two weeks ago. He should be able to find some success this week as well, with the Bears ranking 31st in passing EPA defensively.

Young has at least 32 pass attempts in all but one game this season, and he had 31 in the lone outlier. The Bears have a massive pass-funnel defense — they’re third in EPA/rush defensively — so any success Carolina has in this matchup will come from Young’s right arm.

Same-Game Parlay (+3500, BetMGM)

• Panthers +3.5

• Under 38.5

• Young Over 219.5 passing yards

• Cole Kmet anytime TD

This is admittedly a pretty ambitious SGP, even though it only contains four legs. The bets don’t correlate perfectly, particularly the Kmet touchdown.

Still, I think each of these legs makes sense in a vacuum.

If the Panthers are going to cover the +3.5, they’re likely going to need to make it a low-scoring game. Their offense hasn’t eclipsed 24 points in a single game this season, so I don’t think they will be winning any shootouts.

Young’s yardage prop also makes sense. If I think he’s going to throw the ball 32+ times against this Bears defense, I like his chances of racking up yardage. Honestly, you — and I mean “you” — might be able to get 220 yards with 32 attempts against the Bears.

Finally, Kmet has been a workhorse with Bagent, racking up 18 targets in the past two weeks. He had two TDs last week vs. the Saints and has 30% of the team’s end-zone targets for the season.