Don't Be Scared: Texans-Jets on TNF

And Ranking Favorite Halloween Candy

October 31, 2024

Oct. 31, 2024
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Thursday Night Preview, Texans (6-2) at Jets (2-6): Billed as a marquee game this summer, injuries and poor play transformed tonight’s matchup into something much uglier. Houston has done the better job of adapting to adversity, stringing together four wins in its last five as the bodies hit the floor. Free agent RB Joe Mixon, averaging 100-plus rushing yards per game in his healthy contests, hit the shelf for three games before HOU lost all-world WR Nico Collins the second he returned. C.J. Stroud kept the lone-star train rolling despite back-to-back clunkers, but now Stefon Diggs’ season is over, and eventually, something has to give. Right?

John Laghezza

Defensive-minded DeMeco Ryans deserves credit for the success, scheming this unit into feared territory—ranking top-5 in critical efficiency metrics like tackle success (59%), yards/game (280), yards/play (4.8), average drive distance (24.1), and time of possession per drive (2:18). Houston’s unique approach is quite unusual, exclusively running 5-DB sets (91%-plus of the time) featuring tons of preventive looks (Cover-3, quarters). Generally, this defensive style inherently allows catches underneath—which simply hasn’t been the case because they’re so effective at creating pressure from who they send. Despite the macro schematics (which can be misleading), strong individual CB play has helped the Texans rank first in both completion rate (53.1%), and completions allowed (16.3).

What is there to say about the Jets? Well, this season feels like a doom loop set on repeat, hell-bent on perpetuating every last loser stereotype since Namath sold the team’s kelly-green eternal soul for that ring. 

Nothing like a little unbiased analysis, right? 

Kidding aside, it’s a rough scene for the Airplanes. The continuity NYJ should be experiencing in year two of the Rodgers signing still sits at eight games (plus four snaps). Adding an all-world WR like Davante Adams will boost expected point totals on any decent model but sadly for computer geeks like myself, this is real life. The offense does not function properly because an offense cannot function properly given the Jets’ early-down failures running the ball.

On first and second down, New York is scraping the bottom of the barrel across the board: -0.12 EPA/rush, 3.8 yards/rush, 32% success, and a mind-blowing 24% of carries resulting in negative yardage. Woof.

When considering the sheer levels of combined experience in that locker room, this exact Jets offense could potentially be the league’s most prolific by Week 17—IT JUST DOESN’T MATTER IF YOU DON’T MAKE THE PLAYOFFS.

Feels like a sad trombone …

Today being Halloween, instead of going on about this scary matchup, let’s finish our open with something sweet.

BIG JOHNNY STUDD’S HALLOWEEN CANDY LIST—THE TOP FIVE 🍫🍭

Listen … we’re here to focus on sports betting and analytics, I get it. But one thing we love here at Fantasy Life more than anything else is a good set of rankings.

So, what better day to break out a controversial rankings set?!

  1. Any Full-Size Candy Bar

  2. Dark Chocolate Kit-Kat/Dark Chocolate Twix

  3. Baby Ruth (Editor’s note: BABY RUTH? John … please come see me in my office.)

  4. Cherry Starbursts

  5. Hershey’s Mini Assorted

Disagree? Argue with a wall (kidding … tag me on X and let’s debate!).

Anyway, back to TNF …

What else is in today’s newsletter?

  • The New York Prop Exchange: The Mixon Bowl

  • Under The Radar: Bearish On This NYJ WR

  • Sharp Hunter: What’s The Sharp TNF Play?

TNF

The New York Prop Exchange🏈🏛️—Mixon Bowl

The Jets’ defense laid the foundation for years and probably takes more heat than it should with strong underpinning season stats reaching across phases—317.0 yards/game, 5.0 yards/play, 3.8 yards/rush, and a 58% completion rate speak to a well-rounded unit. Injuries to C.J. Mosley and Leki Fotu will weaken New York’s front seven, which just got gashed by Ray Davis and Najee Harris in the last three weeks. 

Erase the Jets’ record with a few converted field goals and this one could be talked about as an AFC Championship preview. If ifs and buts were candies and nuts, we’d all have a wonderful Halloween. The New York injuries could level out with the Texans—who may have their wide receiver room outclassed without Collins or Diggs. I’m ready for a rock fight in the trenches where the offense flows through RB Joe Mixon.


If you filter out the games Mixon missed with an ankle sprain, there are few, if any running backs in the NFL today that command the same type of per-game workload. The distance in the chart above speaks for itself—the nearly 24 carries/game were seven times more than any other Texan!

You can feel my argument leaning toward volume. I initially thought about going over rushing yards (100 or more in three straight games), but I’m expecting a slow pace, plus the line’s high (83.5), and our own resident guru Matthew Freedman projects him for only 69 yards. 

I don’t mind bucking the trend a little but that combination started feeling heavy. So give me the Texans to feed Mixon early and often, throughout what should be a closely contested game all the way.

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TNF

Under The Radar📡🏈—Mike Drop

With so little to get excited about for Gang Green, you just know there’s a sharp under play here somewhere. The Jets, who must be desperately scrambling for a way to light a fire under the offense, will also almost certainly focus on funneling the ball to their three superstars Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, and Davante Adams.

Having three big target-share eaters leaves mostly crumbs for the remaining pass catchers, which is exactly what we’ve seen since the Adams trade. New York’s terrific trio sucked up 68.8% of all throws in the last two games. That’s crazy. Even with Allen Lazard out due to a chest injury, we can trace Mike Williams being phased in even before Adams came on the scene (image below).

Since Week 6, Williams appears to have worn out his welcome, preparing to dress as a green ghost this Halloween—50% route participation, 1.7 targets/game, 9.3% targets/route, 0.3 receptions/game, 5.0 receiving yards/game.

Afterthought feels like the best way to describe Williams’ role going forward. And you can bet one more goose egg and this marks the final time we see his receiving prop begin with a 2. The veteran WR should also need more than 1 reception to clear 22.5 yards since he doesn’t have a single grab longer than 22 yards this season.

AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

👀 Are the Bills good … or great? Freedman has thoughts.

🐷 TNF to MNF … Ulrich and LaMarca run down Pigskin Pick’em for the Week 9 action.

🔮 More Texans-Jets ghoulish predictions. Ulrich delivers TNF Best Bets.

SHARP HUNTER

Where Are The Sharps Leaning For TNF?

Really? 

The Jets on an island game? 

AGAIN? 

No flex scheduling for Thursday Night Football, so for what feels like the ninth straight week, we get to watch the Jets in prime time.

As for Thursday, the Jets stand as a 2-point home favorite over the Texans, with a consensus total of 42.5.

Yes, a team with a 2-6 record is favored. Pretty wild.

If I’m playing this game, that’s the side I’d want to be on.

Yes, the Texans are reeling a bit with injuries. They’ll be without Nico Collins for at least one more game and Stefon Diggs for the rest of the season. They might not be as good as their 6-2 record.

BUT … on the season, they’re still ranked No. 7 overall in DVOA. The favored Jets are way down the list at No. 24. And the favored Jets are coming off a horrific loss to the Patriots just a few days ago. That’s a loss that essentially ends their season. It would not be surprising to see them come out flat on the short week after a bad loss. 

Meanwhile, the Texans are squarely in the AFC Playoff mix and have talent on both sides of the ball, even with the WR injuries.

I’ll admit, it’s a little weird this game opened Jets -2.5, swung to Texans -1 and now sits at Jets -2. But based on talent and motivation, the Texans feel like the right side here.

The sharps we’re watching at Sharp Hunter seem to agree.

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