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🎄 Die Hard Is a Christmas Movie
'Twas the NFL Sunday before…
If you’re not double-screening Die Hard and NFL games today, you’re not John McClane’s type of American…
In today’s Betting Life newsletter:
Christmas Movies: The definitive top 10.
Player Props! The most disgusting bet ever?
Power Rank: Regression on the horizon?
A Group Chat Parlay: +515 for the degenerates…
SNF: Broncos. Patriots. Gold. Frankincense. Myrrh.
It’s 12/24: Take it away, Matthew Freedman…
If there’s one thing people care about most this time of year — other than football — it’s debating Christmas movies.
Here’s my objectively subjective top 10 list of all-time Christmas movies. (Don’t worry, we’ve still got loads of football content, per usual.)
🚫 Dishonorable Mention: It’s a Wonderful Life
One of the most depressing movies ever written. Such a painful watch.
❤️ No. 10: Love, Actually
Alan Rickman + Christmas = Top 10.
✨ No. 9: Any Harry Potter Movie
There’s a lot of Christmas in the Harry Potter story, and any of the Harry Potter movie will do (except maybe the first two).
And, again, Alan Rickman + Christmas = Top 10.
🎶 No. 8: Muppet Christmas Carol
It’s classic — and it’s virtuously short.
🚗 No. 7: National Lampoon’s Christmas Vacation
On the one hand, this movie is probably the best of the National Lampoon’s Vacation series. On the other hand… that entire series is overrated?
I just can’t put this in the top five. It’s not that funny of a movie. But it gets into the top 10 based on reputation.
😼 No. 6: Batman Returns
I might catch some heat for this one, but I don’t care. It’s a Tim Burton movie set at Christmas time — and it has Michelle Pfeiffer in that Catwoman suit.
🏡 No. 5: Home Alone
It’s gotta be in the top five. And the supporting cast of Joe Pesci, Daniel Stern, John Heard, Catherine O’Hara, and John Candy is amazing.
🥜 No. 4: Mixed Nuts
You’ve maybe never heard of this one. It’s weird.
But it’s written and directed by Nora Ephron, and it has one of the best casts a 1994 movie could have: Steve Martin, Liev Schreiber, Adam Sandler, Steven Wright, Garry Shandling, Jon Stewart, Rob Reiner, Madeline Kahn, Juliette Lewis, Rita Wilson, and Parker Posey.
🎅 No. 3: Elf
Will Ferrell’s masterpiece: This is the movie he’ll be remembered for 100 years from now.
🍆 No. 2: Bad Santa
Drunk Billy Bob Thornton and peak Lauren Graham. This one definitely isn’t for the kids — but it goes perfectly with rummy eggnog.
🤠 No. 1: Die Hard
Alan Rickman + Christmas = Top 10.
Yippee ki-yay.
For everything you need for Week 16 — including our inactives page, which will update shortly after 11:30 am ET with all of the relevant status updates — you can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.
See our suite of tools to get you ready for today’s slate below:
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Every week, Matthew Freedman writes an article with five of his favorite player props. Here are a couple of them, which you can find (along with lots of other bets) in our 100% FREE bet tracker.
My Projection: -122.1
Cutoff: -120
There’s not much difference between my projection and the best line available in this market, but I still love Mostert to find the endzone this week.
At -110, Mostert has an implied probability of 52.4% to score a TD in this game, but I have his true probability at 55.0% (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator) —- and I believe I’m probably too low on him.
Dolphins-Cowboys easily has the week’s highest total at 49.5, so we could see a lot of points put up in this game.
The Dolphins are home favorites, so they could have more of a run-leaning game script than usual — especially since the Cowboys are No. 32 in defensive rush success rate (45.3%, per RBs Don’t Matter).
Mostert leads the league with 20 TDs and has scored in 11 of 14 games (78.6%). In the five games since the Week 10 bye, he has seven TDs.
He’s one of my Week 16 fantasy favorites, and given what we saw last week out of James Cook against the Cowboys (25-179-1 rushing, 2-42-1 receiving), it’s hard to imagine Mostert not having success this week.
My Projection: 15.9
Cutoff: 13.5
I’ve made some disgusting bets this year.
This one might be the most disgusting.
But Raymond has gone over this number in 11 of 14 games, and he has an average of 10.2 yards per target this year and 9.9 since last year.
Basically, I’m hoping that Raymond has two-plus targets. In his ten games with that volume, he has gone over this number nine times. And even with just one target, this bet still has a chance to cash on account of Raymond’s playmaking efficiency: In three games with a lone target, he has gone over 11.5 yards twice.
This is a buy-low spot in the market: 11.5 is the lowest Raymond’s yardage prop has been over the past two years.
Raymond is just a part-time role player, but he still had a 31% route rate last week, and since the Week 9 bye he has a 22% target rate (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).
Asking for at least two targets is not a lot.
And, now, a very important and earnest message from all of us here at Fantasy Life to all of you.
Merry Christmas, you filthy animals.
Ed Feng is the proprietor of The Power Rank. This season, he’s 41-26 (+24.9 units) on INT Props. Here’s one of his INT bets for Week 16.
In 2022, Dak Prescott had a massive turnover problem. The Dallas QB threw 17 INTs, and the last two came in a playoff loss at San Francisco.
Everything has changed in 2023, as Prescott has seven INTs. However, the underlying metrics tell a different story.
My research has shown the utility of looking at bad ball rate, or INTs and passes defended per pass attempt, in predicting future INTs. The more often a QB puts the ball in a dangerous position, the more likely he throws a pick.
Here are Prescott’s numbers for the past two seasons (NFL average bad ball rate of 11.7% and INT rate of 2.3%):
2022: 13.1% bad ball rate, 3.7% INT rate
2023: 13.6% bad ball rate, 1.4% INT rate
Dallas has gotten lucky with INTs this year. My model gives a 59% chance he throws a pick against Miami, and there is value in Prescott over 0.5 INTs (-130, DraftKings).
📊 Looking sharp isn’t just about how you dress. Where sharps are betting for Week 16.
🤔 In the “Vegas knows” category of coincidences: James Cook, 70 yards, pain.
🏆 Brock = Garoppolo? No, not really.
✍️ QB values, ATS picks, and more. Freedman’s best bets for Week 16.
🏝️ The NFL’s concussion protocol: “The code is more what you’d call ‘guidelines’ than actual rules.”
👀 Projections vs prop lines. There once was a bus named “Gus.”
🏴☠️ The best Pick’em plays for Week 16. Lower your love for Love?
🐤 Money well spent? I watched this video, and now I have Rao’s Homemade in the house.
🥧 “You don’t score, until you score.” Touchdown bets for Week 16.
Welcome to Week 16 of Bets from the Group Chat, where I (Geoff Ulrich) elicit information from my Fantasy Life colleagues about their bets.
The group chat three-way parlay record moves to 5-6 on the year after we hit a +216 payout on our Week 15 card. The win means we’re up +17.7 units overall on these plays since we started (and the individual plays are 24-8-1, wow).
As always, we have three separate plays from three different sources for our parlay below.
⬆️ Freedman Likes: Gus Edwards Over 39.5 Rush Yards (-110, BetMGM)
Projection: 51.9
Play to: 42.5 (-110)
The Ravens lost Keaton Mitchell for the season last week and Edwards — who went over this total in eight straight games at one point — took 16 carries in the Ravens’ last game.
The 49ers rank just 29th in defensive rush EPA as well and allowed 8.85 yards per carry to the Cardinals RBs last week. Love this one.
Projection: 39.7
Play to: 34.5 (-105)
Allgeier’s yardage projection on Fantasy Life still shows a 6 to 7 yard edge to the over this week, which is pretty similar to the edge we had last week on him.
Given that Allgeier has taken no less than eight carries in each of his past 10 games, we need just average efficiency from him to hit this.
Projection: 1.9
Play to: 1.5 (-140) or over 20.5 receiving yards (-125)
The Vikings have allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards to opposing RBs but have ceded the fourth-most receptions to opposing WRs.
Reynolds himself has played well of late and has averaged 3.5 targets over his past four games. For the season, he’s also gone for two-plus receptions in 10 of 14 games.
🤝 Putting It All Together: +515 (BetMGM)
Edwards over 39.5 rush yards (-110)
Allgeier over 33.5 rush yards (-117)
Reynolds over 1.5 receptions (-133)
You can tail our group parlay at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account below!
75+ Rec Yards (+155): Play to +150
80+ Rec Yards and Anytime TD: +400 SGP
100+ Rec Yards (+425): Play to +400
The Bears have had trouble defending against dynamic TEs like McBride. Last week they allowed David Njoku to go for a career-high 10 catches, and they have now allowed five TDs to TEs over their past seven games.
I don't trust Bears HC Matt Eberflus to make the proper adjustments for this game either, and with the Cardinals receiving core banged up, McBride seems destined to approach his ceiling in targets (he’s averaged nine targets over his past five games).
For betting purposes, laddering up to 100+ yards makes sense, but given how poorly the Bears have defended against TEs I like including a same-game parlay that includes an anytime TD as well.
If you’re not busy watching your favorite Christmas movie on Sunday night — I (this is Matt LaMarca, by the way) watch Die Hard with a nice glass of Bailey’s every Christmas Eve — there is a football game available for your viewing pleasure. Here are some of my favorite bets for Patriots-Broncos.
I’m not going out on a huge limb here — I don’t think either of these offenses will be particularly effective. The Patriots’ futility has been well-documented, but the Broncos are just 25th in yards per game and 20th in EPA/play.
The Broncos have also been more efficient running than throwing, so the matchup vs. the Patriots is a bad one for them. Russell Wilson is going to need to make plays with his arm, and he simply isn’t the player he was in his prime.
The “primetime unders” trend has lost some steam recently, but they remain extremely profitable overall. Unders in Sunday and Monday Night Football are a ridiculous 26-7 this season, and they’re 109-61-3 over the past five years.
These two squads are a combined 11-17 to the under in 2023, and I see no reason why they can’t combine for another one on Sunday night.
We’re not showing a ton of value with the over on Wilson’s rushing prop, but I think our projection is a bit conservative. One area where Wilson has looked more like the Seattle version of himself is with his legs. He’s had a designed run rate of at least 17% for four straight weeks, and he’s had at least six carries in six of his past seven games. He hasn’t been particularly efficient in his past two, tallying just 11 total yards, but he’s had eight games with at least 21 rushing yards so far this season.
With his volume continuing to increase, this seems like a prime positive regression spot. Wilson’s rushing prop is as high as 22.5 yards at other locations, so getting the over on 19.5 at FanDuel is a solid investment.
Under 35.5
Broncos -6.5
Wilson Over 19.5 rushing yards
Courtland Sutton anytime TD
I’m building this SGP on the premise that the Patriots can’t score. That seems like a pretty reasonable assumption based on what we’ve seen for most of the season.
This starts with under 35.5 points, and I’m pairing that with the Broncos -6.5. I’m buying down under the key number of -7, giving us a smidge of added security.
After that, I’m adding in the over on Wilson’s rushing prop and an anytime TD for Sutton. Pairing an anytime TD with an under might not make the most sense, but that negative correlation increases the odds to +1436 — that’s “pay for Christmas” level payouts. Somebody has to score the ball for the Broncos to cover the -6.5, and I’m banking on Sutton being that guy.