What else is in today’s newsletter?

• Thursday Night Charts

• The New York Prop Exchange

• Building Blocks—Blaze Trails

Thursday Night Charts— 🏈📊

No rest for the weary as the season blasts off with a fury—the current Super Bowl-champion Chiefs host reigning MVP Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Oh, baby! It should be a great one tonight if KC only laying 3 at Arrowhead Stadium is any indication.

I know we all want explosives right off the bat—but it’s truly the two defensive units that stood out last year. Offseason changes make year-over-year data wonky and subject to variance, but as I combed through the charts, I figured why not share with my people?

Both the Chiefs and Ravens ranked top-five in so many critical categories, like being stingy in terms of points allowed…

… because they both surrendered so few yards per play…

...as evidenced in their efficacy and expected points added on defense…

…that many might “blame” on the prevalence of two-high preventive shell coverage.

Now this is normally the part where I’d recommend betting the under. Too bad I have this funny rule about not shorting Patrick Mahomes—do that on your own time with your own money at your own risk. That said, when betting gods slam one door, they’ll often open a window, which gave me a great idea for today’s New York Prop Exchange.

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The New York Prop Exchange 🏈🏛️—Hail To The King

Assuming both coordinators will look to prevent receivers from getting behind the secondary, there’s a good chance we see the Ravens do what they do best—run the ball.

Points will have to be earned through lengthy possessions, and who better to get us over 64.5 rushing yards grinding out first downs than the King himself?

Baltimore ranked first in rush rate last season, more often than not eclipsing the 50% threshold.

At least one person is thinking about Lamar sucking up some of those carries we’ll need to cash, and it’s not invalid. Jackson’s always going to run, but I think it’s the punishment from designed rushes where Baltimore is trying to spare Jackson.

I doubt the Ravens' coaching staff wants to see their franchise QB repeat his total of 67 from last year (below). No need anymore, they’ve got the big dog for that.

My first run of custom median projections came in with Henry at least a dozen yards clear of the mark, against a Chiefs’ rush defense that ranked bottom 10 in yards/rush, defensive rush success rate, and EPA/rush in 2023. 

Per our Fantasy Life projections:

• Dwain: 16.2 Att x 4.3 YPC = 69 RuYd

• Freedman: 15.4 Att x 4.4 YPC = 67 RuYd

• Laghezza: 17.0 Att x 4.5 YPC = 76.5 RuYd

THE BET: Derrick Henry Over 63.5 Rushing Yards (-110) To Win Half Unit

Be sure to check out all of our NFL bets for tonight’s game between the Chiefs and Ravens in our free NFL Bet Tracker!

Building Blocks 🧠🧮—Blaze Trails

Trailing Prices: The practice of price trailing came up in passing the other day and got me thinking—this warrants top billing with NFL kickoff on the horizon. The idea comes from the trading floor as a way to optimize your entry point, directly affecting your bottom line. 

We’ll have to table whether or not you should be bucking the general market direction for another day but one thing is certain—it’s not an absolute. Without getting into an entire dissertation on closing-line value (CLV), this trail strategy should become your go-to whenever your heels are dug in with the public going against you.

So, you identify a bet you like and begin your due diligence by shopping lines. Then you notice a wide disparity across providers, a leading indicator of active price movement. Over the next half hour, the play you liked at (-110) is now (+110).

Should you bet it?

Conventional intuition says yes. Provided that all of your value calculations passed the initial sniff test, then all that extra movement is pure value, right? Technically this is true but with a single entry point, it’s worth it to trail the price. Monitor action by setting a new limit in the other direction with a little bit of space. This allows the price to continue to run in your direction. For example…

• If the original (-110) hits (+110), bet if the price hits (+105)

• If the price reaches (+115), bet if the price hits (+110)

• If the price reaches (+120), bet if the price hits (+115)

“Trailing” the price will help you maximize profit on the same play just by being attentive. 

You’re welcome.

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

Chiefs vs. Ravens to kick off the NFL season, and Geoff Ulrich has the Best Bets in this AFC Championship rematch.

Where is the sharp money going for Thursday Night Football?

Here’s a video rundown on College Football Week 2 Best Bets and more.

Thor Nystrom offers up further in-depth analysis for this week in College Football, featuring Michigan vs. Texas, and much more.

How confident are you in picking this weekend’s NFL games in your Office Pool?

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