🤠 Deep in the Heart of Texas

I wonder if Perry Como was a golf bettor?

In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by BetMGM.

If you haven’t been paying close attention to the NBA of late, I get it. The final month of the season can be a bit of a drag, with nearly every team dealing with injuries or resting players.

That said, there are some really interesting battles going on in the standings.

In the Western Conference, there are three separate races worth monitoring. There’s the battle for the No. 1 seed, with the Nuggets, Thunder, and Timberwolves all separated by just 1.5 games in the standings.

Then, there’s the battle for the No. 6 seed and the final guaranteed spot in the playoffs. There are four teams within 2.0 games of each other — the Pelicans, Mavericks, Kings, and Suns — and only two of them can finish in the top six. Every game for those four teams will be vitally important down the stretch.

There’s also the battle for the final spot in the play-in tournament. No one expected that to be much of a race, but the Rockets have rattled off nine straight wins to move just 1.0 game behind the Warriors. Will the former champs hold on, or can the upstart Rockets keep climbing?

Things aren’t quite as chaotic in the Eastern Conference, but there are three teams battling for the No. 6 seed. The Pacers currently hold a 1.5-game lead over the Heat and 76ers, so there’s still plenty of time for one of them to jump Indiana.

We should get a bit more clarity on Wednesday with a massive 12-game slate. Let’s dive into a few of my favorite plays to choose from…

🪄 Orlando Magic (-4.5) vs. Golden State Warriors (-108; DraftKings)

Orlando entered the year hopeful to make a trip to the postseason, but they’ve absolutely shattered most expectations. They’ve flown past their preseason win total of 37.5, and they’re comfortably seated at the No. 5 spot in the Eastern Conference.

The Magic have kicked things into high gear during the second half of the year. They’ve gone 12-4 since the All-Star break, and they’re fifth in the league in Net Rating over that stretch. Their schedule over that span hasn’t been particularly tough, but they did secure a big win over the Pelicans two games ago.

They’re catching the Warriors at the perfect time on Wednesday. Golden State will be on the road for the second leg of a back-to-back, while the Magic last played on Saturday. They’re also in the midst of a long homestand, so they have a clear edge from a rest and travel perspective.

The Warriors also just aren’t a particularly good team anymore. They’re 14th in Net Rating since the All-Star break, winning just 10 of 18 games.

Ultimately, I’m expecting the Magic to continue to do what they’ve done for most of the second half: cruise to a comfortable win.

⬇️ Kris Murray Under 10.5 points (-110; DraftKings)

Keegan’s younger brother was the No. 23 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, and he’s gotten the opportunity to play more for the Blazers down the stretch. He’s started the past 18 games for Portland, and he’s averaged just under 31 minutes per game in those contests.

That said, the uptick in volume hasn’t led to a huge uptick in production. He’s averaged just 8.8 points per game over that stretch, shooting just 40.9% from the field and 21.9% from 3-point range. He’s coming off a brutal showing in his last outing, knocking down just two of 11 shots for four total points.

The Paydirt sims think this number is too high for Murray, going under 10.5 points nearly 64% of the time. That’s good enough for a play at -110.

🤑 Step up to the Plate...

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🗑 Better luck next year. After the first week of the NCAA tournament, the perfect bracket count sits at zero.

🌹 The Ohtani investigation could take a while. They reportedly investigated Pete Rose for 11 years before dropping the hammer.

🎄 The most wonderful time of the year… for football bettors? The holiday schedule looks mouth-watering for 2024.

🦵 Make returners great again. The NFL is making major changes to their kickoff plays for next season.

🐯 Prime Tiger Woods territory. Scottie Scheffler’s current Augusta odds are some of the shortest we’ve seen in a long time at a major.

🤴 The King of Sacramento. Domantas Sabonis makes history with his 54th-straight double-double.

⬆️ A new contender emerges. J.J. McCarthy moves way up the odds board for the No. 2 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

🎂 The Sweet Sixteen awaits. We have bets up for the next round of the NCAA tournament.

The PGA TOUR heads to Houston this week, as the group tees off for the Texas Children’s Houston Open on Thursday. Geoff is here with some best bets for the weekend…

🇰🇷 Si Woo Kim (FanDuel)

• +3000 outright

• +250 Top-10

The South Korean finished a tidy T6 at the PLAYERS, an event where he gained 4.2 strokes on the greens. That’s significant because although we may be out of Florida, the greens at Houston are similar to Sawgrass in that they are also overseeded with Poa trivialis.

Kim has also played well in Texas before. He was T4 at the Valero (TPC San Antonio) in 2019 and last season, finished runner-up to Jason Day at TPC Craig Ranch (Byron Nelson). Kim played Memorial Park back in 2022, and while he managed just a T35 finish, he did lead the field in strokes gained approach stats (8.8). 

Further, Kim’s driving in 2024 has been stellar, and Memorial Park demands good driving. Kim comes into this week ranked second in Good Drive%, third in Fairways Gained, and ninth in Greens in Regulation gained over the last 24 rounds (via Fantasy National). In short, he’s hitting it as well as pretty much anyone not named Scottie Scheffler, and if his putter continues to shine, there is no reason he can’t challenge Scheffler in a potential lookahead spot for the 2022 Masters Champion.

⛳️ Kurt Kitayama (BetMGM)

• +5500 outright

• +375 Top-10

Much like Kim, I don’t expect Kurt Kitayama to wilt if he finds himself in a heads-up duel with the world number one this week. The American has won numerous times as a pro and faced down Scheffler and multiple other big names at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational to land his first PGA win. 

It’s been an up-and-down experience for Kitayama since then, but he’s played solid golf to start 2024. Kitayama opened with a T24 at the Sony (shooting 62 in the second round) and landed T8 and T19 finishes at the Phoenix Open and THE PLAYERS. His last time out at Sawgrass was also his best start from a ball-striking standpoint, gaining 2.6 strokes OTT and 6.1 strokes ball-striking altogether. Kitayama’s another player who can be very hot and cold with the putter, but if that club shows up for him, he’s hitting it well enough to challenge. 

At +5000 or longer, he isn’t getting much respect in this field, given many of the names below him in odds have either yet to win on the PGA or haven’t won in multiple seasons.

🏌 Parker Coody +15000 (BetMGM)

• +15000 outright

• +1200 Top-10

With the Masters on the horizon and the top end of this field thinner on talent, it does feel like a spot where another younger star can make his mark. Parker Coody is both a Texas native and a University of Texas grad who has flashed some solid form in spots this season. He posted a T25 at the Farmers in January (gaining 7.4 strokes ball-striking) and has made four of his last five cuts on the PGA. 

Last week’s T67 may not jump off the page, but the 4.3 strokes on approach he gained over his four rounds at Copperhead does. In a year where we have seen wins from Nick Dunlop, Austin Eckroat, and Jake Knapp, seeing Coody – who has a solid pedigree and two pro wins already – come up big wouldn’t be overly shocking.