What is in today’s newsletter?

1. Why the Bears offer value in the betting market … but not for the reason you might think

2. Matthew Freedman breaks down two of his favorite season-long receiver props

3. Watercooler: Biggest MLB trade deadline moves (so far)

Best Futures Bet for the Chicago Bears

by Matt LaMarca

Bears to Miss the Postseason (-105; DraftKings)

The Bears are currently considered roughly a coin flip to make the playoffs. Their win total over/under is set at 8.5, while their postseason odds are approximately even on both sides. That’s a lot of pressure for a rookie quarterback who is just starting to get his feet wet.

Leading a team to the postseason as a rookie isn’t undoable, but it is exceedingly rare. Over the past 11 seasons, only two rookie QBs have won double-digit games: Dak Prescott and Mac Jones. C.J. Stroud won nine games and led his team to the playoffs last season, but those guys stand out as the exception, not the rule.

There are far more examples of rookie QBs who tend to struggle in their first season. Last year’s No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young was arguably the worst full-time starter in the league. Trevor Lawrence—a similarly-touted prospect—won just three games and threw a league-high 17 picks. Even the legendary Peyton Manning won just three games as a rookie with more interceptions (28) than touchdown passes (26).

Is Williams’ situation better than most? Absolutely. But that’s not to say that the Bears don’t have issues.

For starters, their offensive line has been a big weak spot. Justin Fields was sacked 135 times in 40 career games with Chicago. They were first in pressure rate allowed in each of the past two years, and they were a top-three team in sack rate in both seasons as well. Part of that stems from Fields’ style of play, but I don’t think it’s a stretch to say the Bears’ offensive line didn’t help matters.

Additionally, the excellent defensive numbers for the Bears look a lot less impressive after a bit of inspection. They faced the 10th-easiest schedule in football in terms of opposing quarterbacks, and their wins came against an extremely uninspiring group: Bryce Young, Brian Hoyer, Sam Howell, Josh Dobbs, Taylor Heinicke, Kyler Murray, and Jared Goff. Outside of Murray and Goff, there’s a chance that all of those guys are backups or out of the league within the next few years.

The Bears were also fourth in fumble luck, second in field goal luck, and finished as the ninth-healthiest team overall (per Sharp Football). Despite all that good fortune, the team still managed to win just seven games.

It’s easy to say that adding some key offensive pieces can get the team the extra two or three wins it needs to make the playoffs, but that doesn’t account for any change in fortune. Add in the fact that the Bears play in one of the toughest divisions in football, and I think this team is being overvalued. Williams might lead the Bears to the Promised Land one day, but I’m betting it takes at least a year.

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Season-Long Receiving Props

by Matthew Freedman

I've recently updated my 2024 NFL player projections (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription), so now I'm diving into the season-long player props markets.

Here are a couple WR receiving props I like.

In case you missed it, check out my previous thoughts on the rookie futures and awards markets, rookie season-long props, QB passing props, QB rushing props, and RB rushing props (logged in our FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker).

Davante Adams Over 1,000.5 Yards Receiving

• Bet: -110 (DraftKings)

• Projection: 1,119.6

As I noted in my piece on 11 stats from 2023 that matter for 2024, Adams led the league last year with a 79% WOPR.

("WOPR" stands for "weighted opportunity rating," and it measures the overall quality of a player's aerial role in his offense by considering his share of targets and air yards. You can find the stat and other air yards data in our Fantasy Life Air Yards Tool).

With his elite usage, Adams amassed 1,144 yards receiving despite playing in an offense with poor QB play, and I expect him to be similarly involved in the 2024 Raiders offense, which should perform better with QB Gardner Minshew.

For fantasy, I still have Adams ranked as a top-12 WR, so I like him a little better than the consensus of 2024 Underdog fantasy drafters (per our customizable Fantasy Life ADP Tool). 

Even though he turns 32 years old in December, Adams still seems highly likely to have his fifth consecutive 1,000-yard season.

Christian Watson Under 750.5 Yards Receiving

• Bet: -115 (DraftKings)

• Projection: 739.9

Watson has missed 11 games in his two NFL seasons due to lingering hamstring issues, and although he's only 25 years old, there's the possibility that his soft-tissue woes will be an ongoing concern for the rest of his career.

On top of that, in his extended absence last year (Watson played just nine games), other WRs stepped up to fill the void. When he returned to action the Packers opted to rely on a robust receiver rotation, evidenced by the five-man unit they featured in their two postseason games (per our industry-leading and all-powerful Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

• Christian Watson: 46% route rate

• Romeo Doubs: 81% route rate

• Jayden Reed: 63% route rate

• Dontayvion Wicks: 51% route rate

• Bo Melton: 27% route rate

If his playoff usage is representative of a long-term plan by the Packers to limit his workload so that he can stay healthy, then Watson not only might not be the team's No. 1 WR this year … but he might not even be the No. 2 WR.

Plus, the Packers could utilize more two-TE sets this year to capitalize on their young up-and-coming duo of Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft, and they might run the ball more this year with the addition of RB Josh Jacobs.

All of that put together, it's easy to envision a scenario in which Watson falls to exceed the 750-yard threshold.

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