Contenders or Pretenders?

It's "put up or shut up" time for Indiana and Army

November 23, 2024

Nov. 23, 2024

Each week, we’re getting more and more pieces to put together the puzzle that is the 12-team College Football playoff.

Last week, Georgia was able to secure a much-needed marquee win over Tennessee, which has all but locked up a playoff spot for the Bulldogs. They’ve moved to -2200 to make the playoff on FanDuel, while the loss dropped Tennessee to the outside looking in. The Volunteers are still at No. 12 in the ranks, but after adding in the five conference champs, they’re officially the first team out for the time being.

Matt LaMarca

While Tennessee will still have a chance to get in, two other teams will take center stage in Week 13: Indiana and Army. Neither of these teams was expected to be legit contenders for the playoffs, but they’re two of the three remaining undefeated teams.

Of course, their records have to be considered with context. Neither team has played anyone of merit, which is why they’ve been looked at skeptically up until this point.

Both teams have the chance to change the narrative in Week 13.

Indiana will travel to Columbus to take on Ohio State, while Army will take on Notre Dame at Yankee Stadium. The stakes are high for all four teams, but for Indiana and Army, these games will literally make or break their seasons.

The Hoosiers can still potentially make the playoffs with a loss, but they’ll likely need to keep this game competitive. If Ohio State blows them out of the water, it would not be surprising to see a two-loss SEC team get in instead.

For Army, the equation is much simpler: win and you’re in, lose and you’re out. It’s technically not a guarantee that an Army win gets them in, but it’s hard to imagine an undefeated team with a win over Notre Dame being excluded. That’s especially true with the Big 12 teams struggling of late; Army could join Boise State as conference champs alongside the SEC, Big Ten, and ACC winners.

Now, all these teams have to do is prove they belong. That’s going to be easier said than done—both teams are significant underdogs—but who doesn’t want to see Cinderella go dancing in the playoff ball?

Let’s dive into both marquee matchups and the other must-see games in CFB Week 13.

What else is in today’s newsletter?

Watercooler: Win a trip to the CFB National Championship!
The best College Football games for your Saturday viewing pleasure
Thor Nystrom’s Best Bets for CFB Week 13

AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

☕️ Rise and grind. The Week 13 College Football Pregame Show kicks off at 10 a.m. ET.

🏈 Want a chance to go to the CFB National Championship? We’ve got you covered. And go here for more details on how to enter.

🚑 Ian and Dwain bring you the Week 12 Injury Report.

🧙 The Bellofatto Build offers up a wickedly good parlay to sweep up the winnings.

💰 After a huge performance last week, what does Geoff Ulrich do for an encore? He breaks down his favorite props for Week 12.

🎤 Jameis Winston pulled off the upset on Thursday Night Football. That said, his best performance came on the mic.

🚀 Can Bo Nix pass Jayden Daniels for Offensive Rookie of the Year? Kendall Valenzuela and Adam Ronis break it down.

CFB WEEK 13

The Casual Fan’s Guide to College Football Week 13

by Matt LaMarca

BYU at Arizona State (-3.5)—3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN

This game perfectly completes our trifecta of games this week. Neither of these teams was expected to do much this year. Arizona State was picked to finish dead last in the Big 12, while BYU wasn’t pegged to be much better. These teams combined for just eight wins last year, and now they’re meeting with a potential Big 12 Championship berth on the line.

BYU is hanging on to the final spot in the playoffs by a thread, and the Cougars are now 3.5-point underdogs in this matchup. If they lose, the door is open for Colorado, Arizona State, or maybe an outsider like Army or Tulane to swoop in and steal it.

This matchup will likely come down to how the Cougars defense can handle running back Cam Skattebo. He’s averaged 119.3 yards per game and 5.4 yards per attempt, so Arizona State tends to go as he goes.

Army at Notre Dame (-14.5)—7 p.m. ET on NBC

For the second time this season, Notre Dame will square off with an undefeated service academy squad. The Fighting Irish managed to roll past Navy by a score of 51-14, and now they’ll be looking to do the same to Army.

That tends to be how these matchups go. When Notre Dame is good, it doesn’t really matter how good the service academy squads are; the talent gap is just too much to overcome. Notre Dame has won 15 straight over Army, and its last loss in this matchup came all the way in 1958.

Army has moved the ball all season with its triple option, leading the nation with an average of 334.9 rushing yards per game. The Irish do have a top-5 defense, and they’ve already beaten one triple-option team this season, so it’d be pretty easy to write Army off.

However, the Irish were gouged by Navy for more than 200 rushing yards, and it could’ve been a different game if not for 6 Navy turnovers.

Army and Navy are notorious for covering spreads as large underdogs, posting a combined 36-18-2 ATS record when getting more than two touchdowns since 2005. Just because Navy could get the job done, don’t assume things will go the same for the Black Knights.

Indiana at Ohio State (-10.5)—Noon ET on Fox

This is the game of the week, with two top-5 teams in the rankings squaring off against each other. Ohio State is a comfortable favorite, but we’ve seen this line shift pretty significantly toward the Hoosiers since opening. Indiana was +12.5 to start the week, so there’s been plenty of betting support for the upstart.

While some think this Indiana team is a “fraud,” it is currently No. 2 in the nation in points per game and No. 7 in points allowed per game. That’s a pretty strong combination. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke leads the Big Ten in adjusted yards per attempt, while the Hoosiers have collectively averaged 5.0 yards per carry as a team.

There’s no denying that the Buckeyes have more raw talent, but they enter this matchup with one glaring weakness. Their offensive line has been banged up in recent weeks, and starting center Seth McLaughlin suffered what is believed to be a season-ending injury at practice on Tuesday.

Does a banged-up Ohio State offensive line give the Hoosiers a chance at an upset? I’m excited to find out.

CFB BETS

Best Bets for College Football Week 13

by Thor Nystrom

Below is one of my best bets for College Football Week 13, which is a mix of picks on the spread and player props.

Because the College Football betting market moves so quickly, I input my bets immediately—as they happen—into our College Football free bets tracker. I can’t recommend highly enough that you bookmark that page, so you can get the best lines before they move.

Note: “Adjusted Thor Line” is my model's spread. For a much deeper dive into that system, there's a full College Football Game Model based on my projections.

Texas vs. Kentucky

Adjusted Thor Line: Texas -22.5

Kentucky’s bye week and subsequent game against FCS Murray State both came at seemingly opportune times, as the Wildcats are one of the nation’s most injury-ravaged teams. But the Wildcats remain a MASH unit heading into this road trip to Austin.

Most recently, Kentucky announced that starting ILB D’Eryk Johnson is out for the remainder of the season with an undisclosed injury. The Wildcats were already playing without defensive starters DT Deone Walker, ILB Jason Dumas-Johnson, and OLB JJ Weaver. Walker will likely go in Round 1 in April. And we have an entire section dedicated to the draft here.

With multiple other injuries along the defensive front, and an LB corps that has been wiped out, a previously strong front-seven has been neutered. Depth is scarce.

These injuries have destroyed Kentucky’s defense, a long-time strength for HC Mark Stoops’ team. Kentucky’s defense ranks No. 104 success rate and No. 107 in % of 20+ yard plays. This is really bad news in advance of a date with the Longhorns’ powerful offense.

Kentucky’s offense did finally get RB Chip Trayanum back for Murray State – he had eight carries for 42 yards after battling injuries for most of the campaign. But WR Barion Brown missed that game, a huge shot for an uninspiring WR room.

UK’s offensive line is healthy, but that unit has struggled all year. The way to beat Texas is by dominating in the trenches. The Wildcats will not be doing that on Saturday.

Kentucky will be playing from behind for most of the day. Even at full-strength, this was not a team equipped to do that. In neutral game-scripts, the offense is a slow-moving, run-heavy, vanilla scheme.

Turnovers have been a problem for Kentucky – the Wildcats have already thrown 11 interceptions. Texas’ improved pass defense is likely to flip the field a few times on Saturday.

Kentucky limps in to a game it matches up poorly in, close to packing it in at 4-6.. And the favored Longhorns could use style points for the CFP Committee in their second-to-last regular season game.

Thor’s Bet: Texas -20

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