What else is in today’s newsletter?

• Monday Night Preview: Baker Kneads Help

• New York Prop Exchange: The Hunt Is On

• Sharp Hunter: Is Under the way to go?

Monday Night Preview🔮🏈—Baker Kneads Help

Buccaneers (4-4) at Chiefs (7-0): Injuries to Tampa’s dynamic WR duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin robbed us of a potential classic tonight. It’s hard to describe the Bucs’ chances as anything but neutered without the talent that made them a top-scoring unit in the first place. I get it, Baker Mayfield has played great despite weapon malfunctions, slinging it with the very best through the first eight weeks—but can we expect continuation of these numbers throwing to backups?

Baker Mayfield Stats to Know

• 202 Completions (2nd in the NFL)

•  2,189 Passing Yards (2nd)

• 71.1% Completion Rate (5th)

• 7.4% TD: Attempt (5th)

• 27 +20-Yard Completions (5th)

Again, with all due respect to Mayfield (whom I like), the Buccaneers have carved up the worst secondaries in the league for a month (ATLx2, BAL, NO) and they’re about to get a rude awakening in Kansas City. Man, this Chiefs run never ceases to amaze—a true testament to the importance of strategic malleability.

The Chiefs spent the offseason tooling up to go bananas on offense, adding Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy—the fastest man in recorded NFL Scouting Combine history. Then we saw those incredible preseason highlights as chemistry seemingly bubbled … but little did we know, that was the top. 

Brown immediately got hurt , and we’re still waiting for Worthy to top either 4 catches or 75 yards in a game. And, oh yeah, Andy Reid’s undefeated Chiefs have scored 28 points once.

Yes, you heard that right. The NFL’s best team with the game’s best quarterback boasts a bottom-5 yards per carry and league-worst air yards per attempt. It’s almost inconceivable … until you drill down on the defensive end.

Kansas City’s defense deserves more headlines. We know the name Chris Jones, but the LB combo of Nick Bolton and Drue Tranquill keeps opposing coordinators up at night in sweats, worrying about …

The Chiefs’ D:

• 17.6 Points Allowed Per Game (5th)

• 295.0 Yards Allowed Per Game (5th)

• +0.09 Defensive EPA/Play (5th)

• 3.5 Yards Allowed Per Rush (2nd)

• +0.18 Defensive EPA/Rush (3rd)

• 82.3 Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game (2nd)

• 1.03 Yards Before Contact Per Rush (4th)

• 5.5% Explosive Rush Rate (2nd)

• 14 +20-Yard Completions (1st)

• 39.1% Pressure Rate (T-5th)

Scoring is so important for Tampa because the defense hasn’t stopped anyone yet. I’ll be fixated on Baker under center against Kansas City’s unique mix of two-high-man combos with disguised blitzes coming from every direction as my must-watch matchup. The Bucs must find a way to get through the red and yellow gauntlet to 22 points somehow—something no team has accomplished versus KC since all the way back in Week 2.

I’ll leave you with this beautiful graph I made on TruMedia, highlighting our MNF combatants:

Make sure to check out our NFL Odds Pages for any MNF changes!

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The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

👀 Claudia and Thor dive into the Week 11 Early College Football Betting Lines.

🏈 How many receiving yards for Travis Kelce? Check out the MNF Player Props.

🤩 Taylor Swift sighting tonight? We’ll see, though Matt LaMarca breaks down everything else Chiefs-Buccaneers on MNF.

🌋 Will Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow erupt on TNF? See what Matt LaMarca says in the Early Week 10 Betting Lines.

🤯 Who’s scoring tonight? Anytime TD scoring odds and more for MNF.

New York Prop Exchange🏈🏛️—The Hunt Is On

Yes, you read that right above, we’re on a 10-bet NFL run—the newsletter crew is cooking with gas. LET’S GO!

I’m not expecting much tonight in terms of scoring despite a 45.5 live game total hanging out there. I laid out my theory for the Chiefs’ case to obliterate the TB offense above. And while I know I presented some less-than-stellar stats for Patrick Mahomes’ unit, no one can argue the efficiency. It’s really kind of crazy within the greater context when you consider the Chiefs' macros—just under 25 points a game at 5.4 yards/play hardly impresses—it’s called “average” for a reason. Yet, because the Reid-Mahomes mind-meld rules the galaxy on third down …

The Chiefs Never Come Off The Field:

• 65.0 Plays Per Game (3rd in the NFL)

• 34.7 Average Drive Distance (7th)

• 3:14 Time Of Possession Per Drive (2nd)

• 2.2 First Downs Per Drive (3rd)

A big part of that grind comes in the form of Kareem Hunt (reunited, and it feels so good). We know Andy Reid likes to stick with one RB and this go-around has been no different. Hunt’s production has underwhelmed, there’s no doubt (3.7 yards/rush, 1.7% explosive rush rate)—but considering the workload it’s clear Reid thinks slow and steady wins the race. Since signing Hunt for a Week 4 start (without any prep time, mind you), he’s one of only four running backs in the league to average over 20 carries a game:

So why is Kareem Hunt’s attempt line set at 17.5 even though the Chiefs come in as heavy favorites against a Tampa run D allowing more than +5 yards/carry and +3 yards after contact per rush? I’m not totally sure and our aggregate player projections agree, sitting at 19 on the nose. Hunt logged two full practices in a row and beat this line by at least 4 carries in his last three contests. 

Let’s make it 11 straight, everyone!

THE BET: Kareem Hunt Over 17.5 Rush Attempts (-110) DraftKings

The Sharps Like The Under Tonight

By Mike Mutnansky

Source: Sharp Hunter

We don’t have to watch the Jets on Monday Night? It’s a miracle! 

We will get a prime-time look at the NFL’s only remaining undefeated team on Monday when the Chiefs host the Buccaneers.

Kansas City is a consensus 9-point favorite and the total sits at 45.5 

The total is something the sharps we track at Sharp Hunter are interested in—we’re showing a One-Bag Score on the under of that 45.5 total.

If the game does go under, it would go against the trends so far this season. Monday Night overs are 8-3 in 2024. You have to go back to 2009 to find a better start for overs on Monday nights.  

That doesn’t scare me—I like the sharp side here. 

The Bucs are limited offensively with both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin out of the lineup. Even with those two active, the Bucs have played slowly this season. In fact, they're 30th in FTN’s sec/play metric. That is slow! They could even try and play slow to keep the Chiefs’ offense off the field. That would be good for the under. 

Kansas City’s defense is legit— No. 4 overall DVOA and No. 2 against the run. The Bucs will have their hands full Monday night on the road.

The Chiefs have been willing to run the ball with Kareem Hunt and are just 17th in pass % in neutral-pace situations. 

The Chiefs can put up points. Travis Kelce could go nuts here, sure. But I don’t know if the Bucs will be able to keep pace and push this game over. Baker Mayfield has been good this season, but this might be asking too much. 

And they’re expecting rain Monday afternoon—that could slow down the grass track in Kansas City.

I’ll go against the Monday Night over trend this season and stand with the sharps here—give me the under 45.5.

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