- Betting Life Newsletter
- Posts
- 🎅 Christmas. Football. Perfection.
🎅 Christmas. Football. Perfection.
One day, three games, lots of egg nog...
Not many people know this, but American football was massively popular in Bethlehem back in the day…
In today’s Betting Life newsletter:
Christmas Injuries: Healthy enough…
NBA: Don’t forget about the OTHER X-mas day sport!
KC vs. LV: +1400 SGP!!!
PHI vs. NYG: Will Eagles fly?
SF vs. BAL: THE GAME OF THE YEAR!
It’s 12/25: Take it away, Matthew Freedman…
Today, the powers of pigskin have granted us three NFL games. Matt LaMarca and Geoff Ulrich highlight their favorite bets for these games later in the newsletter, but here I want to note the injuries that might be impactful.
☠️ Raiders
The Raiders will be without promising rookie TE Michael Mayer (toe), but they could get back offensive stalwarts RB Josh Jacobs (quad, illness - Q) and LT Kolton Miller (shoulder, Q), both of whom missed last week.
Outside of WR Davante Adams — and I guess QB Aidan O’Connell (lolz) — Jacobs and Miller are the team’s most important offensive players.
🏹 Chiefs
LT Donovan Smith (neck) will miss his third straight game. Luckily for the Chiefs, Pro Bowl EDGE Maxx Crosby lines up primarily on the right side, so Smith’s absence likely won’t be keenly felt.
No. 2 RB Jerick McKinnon (hip) is out, but the Chiefs will still get a backfield boost with the return of No. 1 RB Isiah Pacheco (shoulder) after two games sidelined.
The absence of WR Kadarius Toney (hip) might result in some addition by subtraction: He can’t lose the game for the Chiefs if he’s not in the game.
🍎 Giants
RT Evan Neal (ankle) is still out — he last played in Week 9 — but the more notable situation is on the defensive line.
After the Giants traded DT Leonard Williams in October, DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches (knee) assumed his spot alongside NT Dexter Lawrence (hamstring, Q) — but Nunez-Roches is now out, and Lawrence and DT A'Shawn Robinson (back, Q) — the No. 3 interior defender — are both dealing with injury.
The Giants are already weak in run defense, ranking No. 25 in rush EPA (-0.057, per RBs Don’t Matter), and they might be even more vulnerable this week.
🦅 Eagles
On offense, the Eagles get back RG Cam Jurgens (pec) but are now without LG Landon Dickerson (thumb).
The bigger injury issue is on defense. In the secondary, No. 1 CB Darius Slay (knee) will miss his second straight game, and slot CB Avonte Maddox (pec, IR) is not yet ready to return.
Additionally, the Eagles are without LBs Nakobe Dean (foot, IR) and Zach Cunningham (hamstring) and maybe No. 3 LB Nicholas Morrow (abdomen, Q), who hasn’t practiced all week.
The Eagles defense could be more exploitable than usual in the back seven.
🚑 Ravens
Explosive rookie RB Keaton Mitchell (knee, IR) suffered a season-ending injury last week, but at least LT Ronnie Stanley (concussion) has cleared the protocol, and No. 1 WR Zay Flowers (foot, Q) should play after practicing fully on Friday and Saturday.
On defense, FS Marcus Williams (groin) entered the week uncertain, but he got in two full practices and will suit up. Still, the Ravens will lack depth in the secondary, as perimeter CB Jalyn Armour-Davis (concussion) and slot CB Arthur Maulet (knee) are out.
As long as they don’t suffer any in-game injuries at corner, the Ravens should be fine — but if one of the starters goes down the unit could be in a tough spot.
⛏️ 49ers
The OL gets an upgrade with the return of RG Spencer Burford (knee), but the offense will be without dirty-work contributors WR Jauan Jennings (concussion) and TE Ross Dwelley (ankle). No. 2 RB Elijah Mitchell (knee, Q) is borderline.
On defense, DL Arik Armestead (foot, knee) and LB Oren Burks (knee) are out again, but DT Javon Hargrave (hamstring, Q) might play after closing the week with limited practices. His return would be significant for a unit that is No. 29 in rush EPA (-0.039).
For everything you need for the Week 16 Christmas Day slate — including our Prop Tool that compares prop lines around the industry to our projections — you can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.
See our suite of tools to get you ready for today’s slate below:
   |    |
And, now, a very important and earnest message from all of us here at Betting Life to all of you.
Merry Christmas, you filthy animals.
🏀 A tradition unlike any other. NBA betting on Christmas Day.
💰 Christmas TD props: He’s older than Santa, but this WR can still deliver scores.
🌎 Circa Survivor: And then there were four — even though none of them is the world’s best sports bettor.
📈 Santa brought you a new ladder for Christmas. And it pays up to +800.
🤑 Too bad sportsbooks don’t pay out if you lose every parlay leg: “It’s as hard to go 0-3 as 3-0.”
🤝 Christmas football means even more betting opportunities. We’ve got you covered with FREE bets and pick’em plays.
😾 The start of something? This QB finally had a game worthy of a No. 1 overall pick.
🎢 The Jets win a wild one. Unfortunately for one bettor, the wildness did not lead to happiness.
🦁 The people’s champs! The Lions clinched the NFC North and paid off handsomely for bettors in the process.
💪 Amari Cooper goes off for 250+ yards! One team’s trash is another’s Pro Bowl WR.
The Raiders and Chiefs meet for the second time this year on Christmas Day. With both lead RBs expected back, and some cooler weather, will points be at a premium? Or do we start with a Die Hard-esque shootout on Christmas? Geoff Ulrich highlights some favorite bets for the game.
Play to: 40.0 (-110)
Betting an under on Christmas may get you labeled as an Ebenezer Scrooge but if everything goes as planned, all the Ghost of Christmas Future will be showing you are pictures of green checkmarks in your betting accounts.
We have two teams in the Chiefs and the Raiders who have been prime under targets all season. Vegas is an incredible 10-4 to the under and is 4-1 at hitting the under when they go off as an away underdog. The Chiefs are 9-5 to the under and are 5-1 to the under in six home games.
Despite the offensive explosion last week, the Raiders are still dead last in plays per game and are 28th in plays per game over their past three starts. With Josh Jacobs (questionable) potentially back, there’s also a great chance they’ll try to run the ball as much as possible and neutralize the Chiefs pass rush. The Chiefs project to run the ball more as well with Isiah Pacheco now healthy.
The weather isn’t supposed to be terrible but 37 degrees with winds of 10-12 mph could result in a more drawn-out, run-heavy affair. I like the under as long as the total stays above 40 for a Christmas Day appetizer.
Projection: 4.2
Play to: 3.5 (-140)
I targeted Meyers on this same prop a couple of weeks ago against Minnesota and it worked out nicely. While his production last week was disappointing it’s created another buy-low spot in Week 16.
The Raiders are massive +10.5 underdogs against the Chiefs, and while they are playing better you have to expect there will be some late-game, up-tempo drives where Aidan O’Connell is dropping back on every snap. Add in the fact that Meyers is a great possession receiver who has converted on 77% of his targets over the past four games, and you have to like his chances to grab four-plus catches in this spot again.
Under 40.5
Isiah Pacheco Anytime TD
Isiah Pacheco over 66.5 rushing yards
Jakobi Meyers over 38.5 receiving yards
The under and the Pacheco anytime TD bets negatively correlate, but that also gives us far better odds in the SGP algorithm. If we add in an over on rushing yards for Pacheco, who should be busy in this game, then it brings us to +650. However, if we think the Chiefs are likely to be running and ahead it should also favor the chances of our other prop bet from above hitting.
We can’t play receptions on DraftKings yet, but given that Meyers has a 46.0-yard projection on Fantasy Life this week his yardage total looks appealing to play to the over as well. Adding him in as a fourth leg gives us generous +1400 odds for a nice Christmas morning sweat from KC.
This is the first of two meetings between the Giants and Eagles. The Eagles are in free-fall mode, having lost three straight. Can the plucky Giants extend their slump or will the Eagles “snap back to reality”? Geoff Ulrich highlights some favorite bets for the game.
Play to: 13.5 (-120)
It’s easy to scoff at the idea of the Eagles laying 13.5 points to anyone. They’ve lost three in a row, been blown out by two NFC East rivals, and completely blew a win (and cover) against the Seahawks last week.
All of the above is true, but the fact remains, they are the better team by a mile this week. The Giants have a -149 point differential on the season and last week allowed another top pass rush in the Saints to sack Tommy DeVito seven times, nearly knocking him out of the game.
This is also the spot where you typically see the best out of Jalen Hurts. Since entering the league Hurts is 17-7-1 ATS in all games he’s started in Philadelphia (per The Action Network). The Giants run defense is also a major concern (25th in rush EPA) up against an Eagles offense that is fifth in rush success rate.
It may not be what people want or tune in for but an Eagles blowout win does seem likely in the second Christmas game.
Projection: 30.0
Play to: 30.5 (-110)
Hurts has gone under this mark in five of his past six starts. And while the trends being in our favor is nice, this is really about the matchup. The Giants can’t stop the run. They’re 21st in success rate vs. the rush and 25th in EPA vs the rush on defense.
The Eagles mysteriously started chucking the ball deep late against Seattle (despite having a lead) and it likely cost them the game. I can’t see them reverting to that mentality this week against the Giants, who don’t have the same kind of explosiveness on offense that Seattle does. With the site projections set at 30.0, I’m definitely in favor of trusting the numbers and leaning under.
Over 71.5+ yards (+130)
Over 80.5 rush yards (+210)
Over 99.5 rush yards (+500)
Over 99.5 rush yards + anytime TD (+750)
For the year, an opposing RB facing the Giants has gone for over 71.5 yards on eight occasions — and as a unit they’ve given up the fourth-most rush yards to opposing RBs. Swift has also gone over the lowest portion of our ladder bet (71.5 yards) in three of his past five starts and seems likely to be in the higher range of his carry volume this week (15-20 carries).
For betting, this sets up as a very appealing spot to ladder up on Swift, who offers some solid odds at the 80.5 and 99.5 levels on DraftKings. You could even take it a step further by combining an anytime TD there with his over 99.5-yard prop for a final leg of +750. The main theme is that if you like the Eagles this week, it’s quite likely that the upside of Swift shines through and pays off for bettors.
The final contest on the three-game Christmas slate is arguably the best game we’ve seen all season. The best team in the NFC will take on the best team in the AFC in a potential Super Bowl preview. Matt LaMarca breaks down his best bets for Ravens-49ers.
I’m conflicted about the spread in this contest. My numbers suggest there’s a bit of value with the 49ers as six-point home favorites — that’s how good they are — but the idea of betting against Lamar Jackson as an underdog is terrifying. He’s a ridiculous 11-1 ATS for his career when getting points during the regular season. His only loss came by five points in Kansas City vs. the Chiefs with the Ravens as 4.5-point underdogs.
Instead, let’s focus on the total. It’s one of the higher ones of the week at 46.5 points, but I still think it’s too low. The 49ers have been an offensive juggernaut this season, ranking first in EPA/play by a wide margin.
On the other side, the Ravens have come on after a slow start to the year. They’re third in EPA/play offensively since Week 7, thanks to the best run game in football.
Ultimately, both of these teams have the potential for a lot of points, so I think this total is a few points too low. I already bet the over on 45.5 earlier this week — which you can find in the NFL Bet Tracker — but I still think you can play it at 46.5.
This sets up as a big spot for the Ravens ground game. The 49ers biggest liability on defense has been stopping the run: They’re 29th in rushing EPA against and 22nd in success rate.
The Ravens backfield remains a committee, but with Keaton Mitchell (knee) now on IR, Gus Edwards should be in for a far bigger role down the stretch. He led the trio with 43% of the carries last week, and he turned his 16 opportunities into 58 yards.
Edwards was getting 10-plus carries every week with Mitchell out earlier in the season, and if he can approach double-digit rushes again he has a good chance to go over 39.5 yards.
49ers -6.0
Over 46.5
Christian McCaffrey anytime TD
Brock Purdy Over 1.5 TD passes
Edwards anytime TD
Edwards Over 41.5 rushing yards
That’s right, we’re going big on Christmas. Six legs, +2158 payout. Time to replenish the bank account after splurging on gifts.
Hitting a six-leg parlay is difficult, but I do think this has solid correlation. The anytime TD props correlate well with the over, and at least two TD passes for Purdy works well with 49ers -6.0. Add in the Edwards rushing prop, and we’ve got ourselves a party.