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🏆 Chiefs, 49ers, Game Day
Super Bowl 58 is finally here ...
If you’re not buried in kicker props and Taylor Swift-inspired same-game parlays, what are you doing reading this???
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by BetMGM:
Super Bowl Rundown: Everything you need to know.
Props! Pacheco vs. McCaffrey?
Livestream: Game breakdown and bets.
Group Chat: +360 SGP!
It’s 2/11: Take it away, Matthew Freedman…
No more sleeps until Super Bowl 58. Unless you nap.
But who has time to snooze with all the bets we need to make?
Over the past two weeks, we’ve broken this game down from several perspectives in all our Betting Life Newsletters and Fantasy Life betting content.
While I encourage you to dive deeper into all our analysis for the game, here’s as much information as I can give you as quickly as possible on Super Bowl 58.
✍️ Projections
Here are my projections.
Spread: 49ers -1
Total: 46.7
ML: 49ers -111.3, Chiefs +111.3
Logged in our FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker, I have Chiefs +3 (-115) and under 48.
📊 Player Projections
All my personal player projections — as well as our official site projections (managed by the sharp Dwain McFarland) — are available through our Fantasy Life Projections Tool.
🔁 Super Bowl 54 Rematch
A lot has changed since these teams met four years ago … but much is the same.
We still have a Chiefs offense led by HC Andy Reid, QB Patrick Mahomes, and TE Travis Kelce going against a defense with DL Arik Armstead, EDGE Nick Bosa, and LBs Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw.
And we still have a 49ers offense with HC Kyle Shanahan, FB Kyle Juszczyk, WR Deebo Samuel, and TE George Kittle going against a defense led by DC Steve Spagnuolo and DT Chris Jones.
These teams have the same DNA.
🔑 Key Matchups
Chiefs Offense: Kelce vs. 49ers pass defense - 49ers have been exploited by strong TEs since losing SS Talanoa Hufanga (knee, IR).
49ers Offense: RB Christian McCaffrey vs. Chiefs run defense - 49ers are No. 1 in early-down rush EPA (0.107, per RBs Don’t Matter).
👀 Big Trends
Data from Action Network.
Mahomes as Underdog: 10-1-1 ATS (71.4% ROI) | 9-3 ML (85.3% ROI)
Mahomes at Road/Neutral: 32-21-2 (16.9% ROI) | 43-12 ML (28.4% ROI)
Mahomes in Postseason: 12-5 ATS (35.8% ROI) | 14-3 ML (35.6% ROI)
Mahomes as Postseason Road/Neutral Dog - ATS: 3-0 (91.3% ROI)
Mahomes as Postseason Road/Neutral Dog - ML: 3-0 (136.7% ROI)
Reid vs. Shanahan: 3-0 ATS (92.6% ROI) | 3-0 ML (69.0% ROI)
Non-No. 1 Seed vs. No. 1 Seed: 6-3 ATS (29.4% ROI) | 6-3 ML (63.3% ROI)
🚑 Injuries
49ers: Everyone on the active roster is healthy.
Chiefs: All-Pro LG Joe Thuney (pectoral) is out, as are DT Derrick Nnadi (elbow, IR) and EDGE Charles Omenihu (knee, IR). Worst of all: WRs Skyy Moore (knee) and Kadarius Toney (hip, personal) might be back.
🦶 Favorite MVP Bet
Yes, a kicker: Harrison Butker. I logged him in the Bet Tracker at +49000 and still like him well enough at +37000 (FanDuel).
I broke down this bet in (too much) detail on the Betting Life Livestream yesterday and Betting Life Prop Show on Friday.
At +37000, this bet has an implied probability of 0.27% (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator), and I think the true odds are closer to 0.5%, maybe even 0.75%.
Don’t hate me.
For everything you need for the Super Bowl — including our inactives page — you can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.
See our suite of tools to get you ready for today’s slate below:
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Every week, Matthew Freedman writes an article with some of his favorite player props. Here are a couple of them, which you can find (along with lots of other bets) in our 100% FREE bet tracker.
Original Bet: 21.5 (-110)
My Projection: 18.8
Cutoffs: 20.5 (-110), 21.5 (-175)
In the regular season, Mahomes played 16 games. He went over 21.5 DraftKings points in just three of them while averaging 19.3.
And then in the postseason, he has put up 18.6, 18.5, and 15.1 DraftKings points.
Mahomes is capable of hitting the over, but his pass catchers haven’t done him many favors this year, and his matchup isn’t great against the 49ers, who are No. 5 in defensive dropback EPA (-0.036).
As I highlight in my Super Bowl 58 betting breakdown, I like under 47.5 points for the total, and if the game goes under then many player props will as well.
I hate sounding like a Mahomes pessimist, but the last time he had 21.5 DraftKings points was Week 7, when he passed for 424 yards and four TDs against the Chargers.
The 49ers ain’t the Chargers.
In their 18 real games this year (discounting the meaningless Week 18), the 49ers have allowed five QBs to go over 21.5 DraftKings points.
This is probably my favorite bet on the board.
Original Bet: +23.5 (-115)
My Projection: Pacheco - 69.2, McCaffrey - 84.4
Cutoffs: 17.5 (-110)
Pacheco is one of my Super Bowl fantasy favorites.
He entered the AFC Championship dealing with ankle and toe injuries, but he played through his questionable tag to earn 24 carries.
In the postseason, Pacheco has 21 carries per game; McCaffrey, 18.5.
Since their respective bye weeks, Pacheco has averaged 18 carries across eight games; McCaffrey, 17.6 across nine (removing his injury-impacted Week 17).
It’s not a stretch to imagine that Pacheco could lead the game in carries, and the 49ers allowed 182 yards rushing to the Lions in the NFC Championship and 136 to the Packers in the Divisional Round.
If the Chiefs run relentlessly, Pacheco will have an excellent chance to match McCaffrey in carries, and if that happens it will be hard for him not to cover the spread of +20.5 yards.
🏈 The Big Game is Finally Here!
Heads or Tails? Over or Under on the Anthem?
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💰 Super Bowl bets: They’re free, and we’re up +50.5 units for the season.
🐶 Underdog Pick’Em Tracker: Dogs bark, that’s what they do.
🚀 You can’t win if you don’t buy a ticket. A SGP to shoot for the stars.
👎 I’m starting to sense a pattern: A sharp pro pulls a Freedman and bets on basically nothing to happen …
🧮 George hates math: “This is reality.”
📈 Time to break out your ladder. Four players to go all-in on.
📺 Betting Life Livestream: Everything everywhere all at once about the Super Bowl.
🚽 Five hours of content. One bathroom break.
💸 Not ideal for Chiefs bettors: Lots of big money on 49ers.
🔪 Unabated: When to avoid/attack Super Bowl props.
Welcome to the Super Bowl edition of Bets from the Group Chat, where I (Geoff Ulrich) elicit information from my Fantasy Life colleagues about their bets.
After shipping our conference championship parlay (+450 odds), the group chat SGP is now up +17.2 units for the season (assuming one unit bet per parlay).
As always, we have three separate plays from three different sources for our parlay below. If parlays aren’t your thing, we also have the weekly ladder bet as well. Good luck!
All bets are at BetMGM.
🏹 Matthew Freedman Likes: Chiefs ML
Officially, Matt is on the Chiefs +3.0 in our bet tracker but as an extension he likes the Chiefs in this game and laid out why in his analysis from earlier in the week.
From the trends (Mahomes is 10-1-1 ATS as an underdog) to the experience advantage at head coach (and kicker!) it’s hard to pick against the Chiefs this week.
☝️ Matt LaMarca Likes: Isaiah Pacheco Over 64.5 Rush Yards
Projection: 74.7
Play to: 69.5
As much as I know he likes the 49ers in this game, LaMarca also recognizes this is a good spot for Pacheco:
“Pacheco has operated as the team's clear lead back, and he has at least 67 rushing yards in five of his past six games. That includes all three postseason contests. The 49ers are more vulnerable against the run than the pass, so it's another great spot for Pacheco.”
💪 Geoff Ulrich Likes: Travis Kelce Anytime TD
The 49ers lost starting SS Talanoa Hufanga in Week 11 and since that time they have been more susceptible to big games from opposing TEs.
They’ve allowed three TDs to tight ends over their past seven games and last game, allowed rookie TE Sam LaPorta to post a 9-97 line on 13 targets.
Chiefs Moneyline
Isiah Pacheco Over 64.5 Rush Yards
Travis Kelce Anytime TD
⛏️ Super Bowl Ladder: Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards
50+ Yards (+200)
50+ Yards +TD (+390)
75+ Yards (+625)
100+ Yards (+1000)
The Chiefs linebackers have had their issues in limiting gains from the backfield most of the season. In the AFC Championship, they allowed Justice Hill to go for 34 yards on four catches, and in Week 14 against the Bills they allowed James Cook to go for 81 yards on just five catches.
Safe to say that McCaffrey has just as much explosiveness as (if not more than) both of those backs and is certainly as good a receiver. For his career in 91 regular season starts he’s had 21 games (23% hit rate) with 70 yards receiving or more.
Given the Chiefs’ ability to bring pressure and the fact they love to blitz (seventh-highest blitz rate in the league), there are a lot of game scripts that could see Brock Purdy dumping the ball off to McCaffrey relentlessly late to get us over some of these bigger totals.