Can The Bengals Make It Back?

Three Futures to Ponder before Week 10

November 05, 2024

Nov. 5, 2024
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Your Early Week 10 Primer: We’re almost halfway through the season, and things are moving fast and furious (or hot and heavy as Elaine Benes would say).

Heading into Week 10 we have several injuries to key players (and the trade deadline) to keep track of.

I’m going to give you my quick, GeoffsNotes (like CliffsNotes, but mine) on these situations and how I might be looking to play them, or profit from a prop betting perspective.

AJ Brown (knee)—Questionable

Brown went down in the game against Jacksonville and didn’t return. An MRI came back negative and he’s not expected to miss extended, but looks like a longshot to play against Dallas.

Verdict: This was already a great spot for Saquon Barkley and the Eagles’ run game and just became a better one. Jahan Dotson (42 snaps, 65% route rate in Week 9) alt lines might also be worth a look, but this is a great spot to just pound Barkley overs.

Dak Prescott (hamstring)—Out

Prescott being out is a clear downgrade to the Cowboys’ offense. In our QB spread value tool Matthew Freedman has the switch from Prescott to Cooper Rush rated as a -5.5 loss; the second-biggest gap between starter and backup in the league.

Verdict: CeeDee Lamb posted a season-low 5.87 yards per catch last week. Rico Dowdle caught a season-high 5 passes. Expect lots of low-aDOT passes and Dowdle to potentially post another solid receiving line.

Chris Olave (concussion)—Doubtful

Olave suffered his second concussion of the season last week and was placed in the concussion protocol for the fourth time in his career. It would be somewhat shocking if he practiced, let alone played.

Verdict: The Saints’ season is turning ugly quickly, but they play a poor pass defense in Atlanta that doesn’t get any pressure. Juwan Johnson (13.5 aDOT, Week 9) might be their primary receiver in Week 10 and has big-play ability.

Drake London—Questionable

London suffered a hip pointer in Week 9. Of the four players we have covered, he has the best shot at suiting up next week, but could be at less than 100% if he does.

Verdict: London being out would open up a ton of targets (7.77 per game) against a wounded and ineffective Saints secondary. The Saints have suffered mightily against slot receivers and TEs, so both Ray-Ray McCloud and Kyle Pitts should be in great spots.

Don’t forget, we have weekly Player Projections and a Prop Finder Tool, to help you navigate all of this injury madness and gain an edge in Week 10.

Both are available (along with a host of other great tools) with a FantasyLife+ subscription.

What else is in today’s newsletter?

  • NFL Futures: Three-Question Tuesday. Three Futures to Ponder before Week 10.

  • NHL Prop Drop: Can Pettersson prosper vs the Ducks?

NFL Betting

NFL Futures—Can the Bengals make it back?

Like I’ve done many Tuesdays this year already, I did a deep dive into the futures markets before Week 10. Here were three of the most interesting propositions (and bets) that came out of that research.

  1. Can the Bengals make the Playoffs?

The Bengals bounced back nicely in Week 9, dismantling the hapless Raiders, 41-24. A win over the Raiders isn’t necessarily something to write home about, but the Bengals had a bunch of standout performances worth noting.

  • RB Chase Brown touched the ball 32 times, going for 120 yards on the ground (4.4 ypc), while catching 5 passes for 37 yards and a TD.

  • DE Trey Hendrickson had his best game of the season by a mile, landing 4.0 sacks against the combo of Desmond Ridder and Gardner Minshew.

  • TE Mike Gesicki had his second big game in a row, going for 5 catches and 100 yards, with t2 TDs (and two Griddys); he now has 12 catches over his last two games.

Early in the season, the Bengals lacked explosiveness in the run game, pressure on defense, and a secondary presence in the pass game. All with the goal to take pressure off Ja’Marr Chase. They got all of that and then some last Sunday and have a QB in Joe Burrow playing at an MVP level (4th in EPA per play among QBs).

Even if the Bengals lose on Thursday to the Ravens, they have a schedule that includes two games against the Steelers, and games against the Chargers and Broncos; three teams that represent their closest rivals in the wild card race. They also have games against the Browns, Titans, and Cowboys.

Using our NFL Futures Tool, we have the Bengals listed as slight underdogs at -105, at multiple books, to make the playoffs. I’m fine taking them above -110.

The Bet: Bengals to Make the playoffs (-105; DraftKings)

  1. Who will win the NFC West?

The NFC West is a blender. As of now, the Cardinals lead at 5-4, but last-place Seattle remains just one game back and has two games against Arizona remaining. The 4-4 49ers are coming off a bye, and favored by -6.5 over Tampa Bay next week, while the 4-4 Rams have won three in a row and are -3.0 favorites against the Dolphins in Week 10.

Using our NFL Futures Tool, we can see that despite the 49ers and Rams being tied, there is a big discrepancy in odds between those two teams.

Maybe this is the Cardinals’ year to run hot, but nothing about them makes me super confident that they’ll keep winning games down the stretch. They’re -7.0 in point differential and -22.0 in yardage differential, and even at +220, they’re not super appealing with L.A. and San Francisco lurking.

The Rams don’t grade out much better in those categories, but were significantly hampered by injuries early (and had one big blowout loss to the Cardinals in Week 2). Over their last four games, the Rams are +20.0 in point differential and +36.0 in yardage differential. That run includes games against the 6-3 Packers and 6-2 Vikings.

The Rams’ schedule is no cakewalk, but three of their next four games are against teams with losing records, and they’ll at least have the luxury of facing two of their toughest remaining opponents (Eagles and Bills) at home.

Despite their odds coming down significantly over the last two weeks, it seems like this team is still being undervalued and they’d be my target right now if betting on the NFC West.

The Bet: Rams to win the NFC West (+380; FanDuel)

  1. Who will have the NFL’s Worst Record?

Since we last visited this market, every single team that was stuck at one win has gained, and we now have a seven-way tie with the Jaguars, Browns, Patriots, Raiders, Giants, Saints, and Panthers all at 2-7 (.222 percentage), with the Dolphins and Titans lurking at 2-6 (.250 percentage).

The Dolphins, Saints, and Jaguars have the best QB play of this group by a decent margin. However, it is worth noting that there is likely some value in taking some of the huge numbers available in this market on the Saints (+10000; BetMGM) and Dolphins (+6500; DraftKings). An injury to Derek Carr or Tua Tagovialoa, who is at high risk of going back to IR every time he steps on the field, would push those teams in line with the rest of the 2-win teams from a competitive standpoint.

However, my favorite bet from this group is the Raiders (+1600; DraftKings), who fired three coaches yesterday but retained head coach Antonio Pierce. Pierce has little head coaching experience, has a terrible roster, and is in over his head. Despite their offense (32nd in EPA per play) rated as the worst in the league, their defense ranks 27th in sacks (1.9 per game) and last in turnovers (5). Overall, they’re priced with much bigger odds than the Patriots (+300; FanDuel) or Panthers (+450; BetMGM).

The Bet: Raiders to have NFL’s Worst Record (+1600; DraftKings)

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AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

👀 The Best of the Best: Get Dwain McFarland’s Industry-Leading Utilization Report before you hit Week 10.

🏀 With College Basketball season approaching we have the NCAA Women’s Basketball Futures You Need. Is UNC a longshot worth taking?

💰 The Chiefs cashed this $5 —> $22K parlay in OT last night. If Field of Dreams was about betting, this is what it would look like.

⬆️ Moving and Shaking. Thor Nystrom reveals his College Football Power Rankings ahead of Week 11.

👑 Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen? Odds to win NFL MVP, starting in Week 1 to now.

NHL Best Bets

NHL Prop Drop—Pettersson Should Perform

Elias Pettersson is coming off another stellar season, where he recorded 89 points while playing in all 82 games and posting his third 30-goal season in a row. But it’s been a tough start for him in 2024-25, as he has just one goal and four points in 10 games thus far.

His shot volume is also way down, as he’s averaged a paltry 1.5 SOG to date. It’s tough to say exactly what the issue is, but the quiet Swede isn’t very jovial these days and doesn’t seem to be enjoying himself much in the Canucks’ defensive-oriented Rick Tocchet system.

Despite the horrific start, Pettersson is still one of the most talented players in the league and will get regular top-six minutes, and first-unit power-play time, against the Ducks on Tuesday—a team that allows a league-worst 14.45 SOG per game to centers.

The Bet(s): Elias Pettersson over 2.5 SOG (+110; FanDuel); Elias Pettersson to score 2+ points (+300; DraftKings); Elias Pettersson to score 3+ points (+1000; bet365)

Pettersson has played the Ducks eight times since the start of 2022. He’s scored two or more points against Anaheim in five of those games and three or more points in two of them. He also managed to hit the net three or more times in six of those eight starts.

Last season (with Tocchet as coach) Pettersson also managed to score 3+ points in 12 games (14.6% hit rate). I really like the over on Pettersson’s 2.5 SOG prop tonight at +100 or better. This just seems like an obvious spot for him to get some pucks on net and try to break out of this early-season slump, against a Ducks team with weak centers.

However, with Pettersson’s multi-point props ballooning to big levels, this is also a game where I will have some exposure to his alternate lines. At +1000 (9.09% implied probability) we’re getting good value off Pettersson’s hit rate on +3-point games over the past two seasons—and have a great opponent with which to take on that added risk.

Looking for more NHL action this season? Check out our free NHL Futures Betting Odds below.

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