What is in today’s newsletter?

1. Three teams to target to win the Super Bowl

2. Geoff Ulrich highlights his favorite options for the 3M Open

3. Watercooler: RB rushing props to target

Best Futures Targets for Super Bowl LIX

by Matt LaMarca

Kansas City Chiefs (+600)

The first bet I make each season is the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl. I’m not joking. I consider it “idiot insurance” – if the Chiefs do make the playoffs, it at least gives me some equity in case I choose to bet against them. That’s what happened last year when I picked the Ravens and 49ers both to end the Chiefs’ run.

Patrick Mahomes still has a way to go to catch Tom Brady, but he’s on pace to be the greatest quarterback in NFL history. He already has three Super Bowl trophies and two MVPs, and he hasn’t even turned 29 yet. To put it in perspective, Brady didn’t win his fourth Super Bowl until he turned 37, and he didn’t win his third MVP til he was 40.

The scary part is – the Chiefs weren’t even that good last season. It was easily their worst offense of the Mahomes era, ranking 15th in yards per game. They had never previously finished worse than sixth with Mahomes under center. He was relying on an aging Travis Kelce and a second-round rookie as his top pass catchers, but Mahomes was still able to get this team across the finish line.

Expect the offense to be better in 2024. Kelce and Rashee Rice are still there, but the team added Hollywood Brown through free agency and Xavier Worthy in the first round of the draft. Those are two explosive playmakers for Mahomes to lean on.

There will be some new faces on the defense, but Chris Jones remains the anchor on the interior. They made some massive strides on that side of the ball last year and should remain an above-average unit.

Ultimately, if the Chiefs can win the Super Bowl in a “down” year, there’s no reason to bet against them in 2024-25. As long as Mahomes remains the best QB in football, I’ll have exposure to them every season.

New York Jets (+2200)

If you’re looking for more of a long shot, the Jets fit the bill. Their defense is already championship-ready: they were third in EPA/play against last season and only got better as the year improved.

The fact that they were that good despite being on the field as much as they were is impressive. The Jets were 25th in time of possession last year, while the two teams above them defensively were first (Browns) and ninth (Ravens).

As long as Aaron Rodgers stays healthy and remains productive, this team has the potential to see one of the biggest boosts offensively in 2024-25. The Jets were one of the worst offenses in all of football last year despite having two blue-chip skill-position players in Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. If Rodgers can get those guys the ball, they have the potential to win a lot of games.

The Jets are available at +2200 to win the Super Bowl on BetMGM, but they’re as low as +1700 elsewhere. Let’s ride.

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Best Bets for the 3M Open

by Geoff Ulrich

Luke Clanton Outright (+3000; DraftKings)

If ever there was a time to bet on an amateur winning a PGA event, this would be it. Clanton comes into this week’s 3M Open having gained an average of 4.72 strokes off the tee over his last four starts. He’s also shown upside with his irons, gaining +6.8 strokes on approach at the John Deere Classic, where he finished 2nd. 

Putting has also been a bright spot. Overall, he’s gained over a stroke on the greens in three of his four starts, and the fact that he gained 1.7 strokes putting on Pinehurst’s complex green structures at the US Open suggests good upside in that department.

While it’s often correct to be wary of new talent —who are at an experience disadvantage — TPC Twin Cities is hardly a difficult course. It’s the same place we saw a then-21-year-old Matthew Wolff come to in 2019 and notch his first PGA win in what was just his fourth start as a pro. Three years ago, we saw fellow off-the-tee maestro Cameron Champ take this course apart despite having missed the cut at Twin Cities in his only previous start. 

Summer has also been a great time to bet on high-end young talent. Over the last four years, we have seen the Wolff, Collin Morikawa (Barracuda), and Tom Kim (Wyndham) all grab mid-to-late summer wins that came in their first few months as full-time PGA players. 

Clanton may not have huge odds anymore, but he comes in ranked first in birdies or better gained over the last 24 rounds and second in strokes gained off the tee. At +3000, I’d still much rather be a little early than late to this party, so taking a piece of him against this weaker field was a relatively easy decision. 

Nick Hardy Each-Way 1/5 Top Eight (+12500; bet365)

I am extremely in on Nick Hardy this week. His outright and each-way number is still well north of +10000, despite an iron game that continues to outperform. Over his last three starts, Hardy has now gained a combined 10.1 strokes on approach alone and has also played well at TPC Twin Cities, landing a T16 at this event last season — an effort that saw him gain strokes across the board and 3.5 strokes on the greens. 

Hardy is being held back by some terrible performances with his putter, which has led to some poor finishes and caused a missed cut last week at the Barracuda. I don’t want to minimize the importance of putting, but it does tend to be a highly variable area of the game.  We only need to look back at last year’s winner, Lee Hodges, who had lost strokes putting in five of his previous eight starts before winning at TPC Twin Cities as proof that the putter can flip any week.

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of football nerds:

👀 ICYMI: Matthew Freedman outlines a trio of running back props that he’s targeting for the 2024 NFL season.

🤯 I’ve never seen anything like this. A missed call had these teams replaying the last 3 minutes of their first Olympic soccer match.

🇺🇸 Speaking of the Olympics, the action kicks off in Paris this week. Best bets for an exciting few weeks.

🏆 Heisman Trophy odds are up at BetMGM. Who ya got?

⚾️ There’s rookie sensations, and then there’s Paul Skenes. The market is all the way in.

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