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📉 Buy Low, Sell High
Investing in teams coming off a loss…
“Not a loser anymore, like the last time and the time before.
– Liza Minnelli”
— Matthew Freedman
In today’s Betting Life Newsletter presented by Unabated:
Coaches Off a Loss: Can we trust these guys?
Player Props! Rushing overz …
A Group Chat Parlay: The odds … +666 (!!!)
Quick Hitter: A bet to HAMMER!
Wemby! The man’s got MOVES.
SNF: Bolts. Bears. Battlestar Galactica.
It’s 10/29: Take it away, Matthew Freedman…
In this week’s “Bigger Picture” episode of the Betting Life podcast, I talked with Stuckey about his multi-faceted approach to sports betting.
While he utilizes models and looks at individual and unit matchups, much of Stuckey’s betting philosophy can be boiled down to this: “Buy low, sell high.”
For buying low, teams coming off a loss naturally seem like attractive targets, and this year such teams have been profitable against the spread (ATS), especially off losses of at least a field goal (per Action Network).
2023 Teams Off a Loss: 48-40-5 (4.0% ROI)
2023 Teams Off a Loss of 3 or More: 44-35-5 (5.9% ROI)
And historically some coaches — usually ones held in high regard — have been fantastic at getting their teams to bounce back after defeats.
Of all the current coaches who have been HCs for at least a year, these are the guys with an ROI of at least 10% ATS off a loss in the regular season for their careers.
Brian Daboll: 8-3 ATS (39.3% ROI)
Matt LaFleur: 14-6 ATS (35.9% ROI)
Bill Belichick: 54-28-1 ATS (30.2% ROI, since 2003)
Sean McVay: 23-12-3 ATS (25.5% ROI)
Sean Payton: 53-32-1 ATS (21.7% ROI)
Pete Carroll: 47-29-4 ATS (19.5% ROI)
Mike Tomlin: 53-39 ATS (13.1% ROI)
Andy Reid: 25-19 ATS (10.6% ROI, with Chiefs only)
Mike McCarthy: 51-39-3 ATS (10.2% ROI)
Out of these nine HCs, LaFleur and McVay are the only two who lost last week.
What ought we to think of their ATS success following a loss?
🧀 Is Matt LaFleur Really a LaFake?
I said this about LaFleur in my preseason Packers betting preview: “As a schemer, play-caller, game planner, and decision maker, LaFleur is good.” That’s my way of saying I like the guy.
As an offensive coach, LaFleur has been effective.
But there’s more to being a coach than building a scheme, planning games, and calling plays, and it’s possible — maybe even likely — that LaFleur has benefitted from positive circumstances following his losses.
The Packers have maybe the league’s best all-time home-field advantage, and LaFleur’s home/road splits after a loss are telling.
At Home: 8-1 ATS (72.5% ROI)
On Road: 6-5 ATS (6.0% ROI)
And, naturally, there’s the matter of former QB Aaron Rodgers, without whom (albeit in a small sample) LaFleur has been mediocre following a loss.
With Rodgers: 13-4 ATS (48.5% ROI)
Without Rodgers (aka With Jordan Love): 1-2 ATS (-35.5% ROI)
I’m inclined to say that we shouldn’t privilege LaFleur’s previous post-loss ATS success. In fact, the Vikings against the Packers is one of my favorite Week 8 bets.
🐏 Sean McVay, All Day … Some Days
I highlighted the Rams in the Week 7 Thursday Betting Life Newsletter as one of three teams at the time with just one ATS loss.
Here were my closing thoughts on them (with the ATS numbers from the time).
“I like the Rams and was high on them entering the year, and if I were to back them moving forward it would likely be in a spot where the market might be inclined to negativity.
McVay Off a Loss: 24-13-3 ATS (24.0% ROI)
McVay on Road: 31-23-2 ATS (11.8% ROI)
McVay as Underdog: 19-14-2 ATS (11.1% ROI)
But if I bet the Rams from now on, it will likely be situationally instead of generally — because I think the market has probably caught up with them.”
The market was indeed too high on the Rams last week, and now this week they hit the circumstantial trifecta I outlined above as road underdogs off a loss. As such, with McVay they are 6-2-2 ATS (38.0% ROI).
They’re currently +6.5 against the Cowboys, and I’ll be very tempted to bet on the Rams at +7 if this line gets there. Frankly, I might just bite the bullet and back them now.
Fabian Sommer — one of our friends from the Hammer Betting Network — has already logged Rams +6.5 in our FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.
With QB Jared Goff, McVay was 12-6-2 ATS (29.4% ROI) after defeat. With all the other QBs he’s had, he’s 11-6-2 ATS (21.5% ROI) in that situation.
McVay’s post-loss ATS success is legit.
For everything you need for Week 8 — including our inactives page, which will update shortly after 11:30 am ET with all of the relevant status updates — you can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.
See our suite of tools to get you ready for today’s slate below:
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Every week, Matthew Freedman writes an article with five of his favorite player props. Here are a couple of them, which you can find (along with lots of other bets) in our 100% FREE bet tracker.
My Projection: 16.2
Cutoff: 12.5
The prop of 10.5 feels too low given Hill’s consistent workload. In every game but one this year he has had at least three carries.
Since last year — when OC Pete Carmichael assumed playcalling duties after the departure of HC Sean Payton — Hill has played in 23 games, all of them as a non-QB offensive weapon.
In those games, he has averaged 5.4 carries for 31.1 yards with medians of five carries and 19 yards.
In terms of the matchup, there’s nothing daunting about the Colts, who are Nos. 16 & 20 in defensive rush expected points added (-0.115) and success rate (41.1%, per RBs Don’t Matter).
My Projection: 14.9
Cutoff: 11.5
I’ve talked about this for weeks now: The prop market tends to be too low on pocket-passing QBs who still have good mobility — like Herbert.
This year, he has averaged 13.3 yards per game with a median of 14, thanks to his increased willingness to turn dropbacks into runs (per our Utilization Report).
2023: 7% scramble rate
2022: 3% scramble rate
Every QB with decent mobility to start against the Bears this year — so everyone except for pocket sloths Kirk Cousins and Brian Hoyer — has gone over 9.5 rushing yards.
Jordan Love (Week 1): 12 yards
Baker Mayfield (Week 2): 17 yards
Patrick Mahomes (Week 3): 28 yards
Russell Wilson (Week 4): 13 yards
Sam Howell (Week 5): 19 yards
Even with the possibility of some last-minute QB kneel-downs, I still like the over.
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Welcome to Week 8 of Bets from the Group Chat. This is where I (Geoff Ulrich) elicit as much information as possible from my Fantasy Life colleagues about their bets for this week.
If you’re tailing our group parlays from this segment, we’re now 1-1 after just missing out on the Buccaneers -2.5 last week. Overall, the plays are 5-1.
Week 6 recap: +543 ✅
Week 7 recap: +721 ❌
Despite the loss, you would be up a solid 4.43 units if you were tailing us with a unit allocation to date. This week, we’re back for more and have another parlay for Week 8.
💰 Bets From the Group Chat: GROUP PARLAY
Play to: +9.5 (-120)
I don’t know if I will have the stones to bet the Cardinals but I have to admit, that is where I am leaning as well.
It’s a tough spot for Baltimore (traveling West, coming off a huge win) and Lamar Jackson is just 19-28 ATS for his career as a favorite of -3.0 or more.
Play to: +105
Freedman has found the terrible towel hidden deep inside his closet (under all his Cowboys garb) and is waving it frantically for the world to see. The Steelers won for him last week and he gave us some great trends that make the Steelers appealing again for Week 8:
“This is a classic spot to back Steelers HC Mike Tomlin (per Action Network):
Tomin at home: 75-62-4 ATS (7.1% ROI)
Tomlin as underdog: 57-31-4 ATS (25.7% ROI)
Tomlin as home underdog: 18-5-3 ATS (46.8% ROI)”
Play to: 8.5 (-110)
Aggregate projection: 12.4 rec yards
I wrote about Akers a little on Twitter (X) this week myself. He had his highest snap rate of the year last week (39%) and his route rate doubled over Week 6 (27%), while Alexander Mattison’s declined.
The Packers have allowed the 8th most receptions and 9th most receiving yards to opposing RBs.
😈 Week 8 Group Parlay: +666 (BetMGM)
You can tail our group parlay at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account!
Our friends over at The Hammer Betting Network have been adding their favorite Week 8 bets to our Free Bet Tracker. Here’s one of the latest courtesy of Hitman…
🔙 Thursday Night Football Redux: It’s not Chris Godwin’s fault … and Todd Bowles goes for two …
📺 Last minute bets, anyone? We’ve got you covered before kickoff.
⚾️ World Series Game 2: The snakes bite back.
📝 Updated college football rankings: I agree, especially with the No. 4 team.
🏀 Sticking with the “Metroplex” … Luka MVP???
🎃 Happy Halloween from a former 1,000-yard NFL WR: Those children will grow up to be totally normal, I’m sure.
📊 Taking a look at the smart kid’s homework. Where sharps are betting for Week 8.
🤔 Professional sports bettors weigh in: What’s the meaning of life (and work)?
The Week 8 SNF nightcap features an über-exciting matchup between the Chargers and Bears. Matt LaMarca is here to break it down from a betting angle with his best bets …
🧸 SNF Best Bet: Bears +9.0 (-110, Wynn)
The Bears are priced at +8.5 across most of the industry, but you can get them at +9.0 at Wynn. There’s ultimately not a huge difference between those numbers — nine is a pretty uncommon final margin — so I’m comfortable playing Chicago at either number.
The sharps backed Tyson Bagent (T-Bag) and the Bears last week, and they’re going right back to the well on Sunday Night Football. They’ve racked up just 40% of the spread bets, but they’ve accounted for 64% of the dollars (per the Action Network).
Ultimately, the Chargers have been one of the more overvalued teams by the public in recent years. They see Herbert and the offense that’s capable of putting up points, but they overlook the poor defense and terrible coaching staff.
The Chargers are graded as a below-average team in the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings, and while Chicago is undoubtedly worse, the gap is not nearly as large as the current spread suggests. With the Chargers having minimal home-field advantage, they project this number at closer to a touchdown.
Herbert does have a decent track record as a large favorite — he’s 4-2 ATS when laying at least a touchdown — but he’s just 16-18-1 ATS as a favorite overall.
That said, the Chargers are the type of team that plays in a lot of close contests. They’ve played 24 games since the start of 2022-23, and 18 of them have been decided by seven points or fewer.
Ultimately, I think the Chargers should be able to win this contest, but I don’t expect them to dominate. This is the type of game that should be competitive down the stretch, and with a nine-point cushion, Bagent has the potential for a backdoor cover.
Bet To: Over 33.5 rushing yards (-115)
Fantasy Life Projection: 39.9
Johnson has missed the past two games after suffering a concussion vs. the Commanders, but he’s ready to return to the lineup on Sunday. He had two straight full practices on Thursday and Friday and has no injury designation heading into the matchup vs. the Chargers.
Where he’ll fit on the pecking order is the bigger question.
D’Onta Foreman has operated as the team’s lead back in the past two games, and he’s racked up 4.97 yards per attempt against the Vikings and Raiders. It’s very possible that he will retain his spot atop the running depth chart.
However, Johnson will almost certainly have a role. The team used a fourth-round pick on him in the 2023 NFL Draft, and he was starting to take on more responsibilities before getting concussed. He should easily supplant Darrynton Evans, who has racked up at least nine carries in the past two games.
We currently have Johnson projected for 9.3 attempts and 39.9 yards, giving us plenty of cushion over the current number. As long as this game doesn’t turn into a blowout, I like Johnson’s chances of cashing.