Buy Low On Two Elite Offenses?

Juicy team totals to consider ...

November 13, 2024

Nov. 13, 2024
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Total Recall: Every Wednesday marks square one to set our foundation for the NFL week ahead—and the best place to start that grind comes directly from the books themselves. Remember, the house can’t help but tip its hand by posting live team totals.

John Laghezza

For whatever reason, NFL totals can be hard to wrangle. In my never-ending quest to make this newsletter an irreplaceable part of your daily routine, I charted all of this week’s baseline (-110) team totals to highlight outliers. Remember the time-tested adage, “One must first have a solid foundation.”

Allow us to do the dirty work so you won’t have to.

Takeaways: Topping this week’s board, it’s the usual suspects (yawn). However, generally highlighted for reversal to bet an under, maybe this week’s different.

Detroit and San Francisco are wagons, playing at home. I need a bit more modeling work done but my gut’s got that loving feeling. If anything, this feels like a perfect buy-low opportunity. Neither DET nor SF managed to top 26 points since Week 8—and it’s hard to hold a giant beach ball underwater for long. Detroit faces Jacksonville, the league’s worst defense in terms of yardage while the Niners get the leaky Seahawks and their 30 points allowed per game on 6.3 yards per play (!) since Week 4. Buying high can make sense depending on the circumstances.

My desire to buy high ends there though. Notice the next rung down. Getting Philadelphia or Baltimore below 27 points is tempting, but check the surrounding contextual environment. Both take to the road against tough defensive units with an added downside. Jayden Daniels and Russell Wilson sustain drives, tipping the scales for field position and time of possession. The allure’s there but my sensitivities say pass.

Ah, mid-season bottom feeders. By this time of year, lethal combinations of poor roster construction and attrition of injuries sadly reduce some teams to dust. Face it. It’s a wrap for the Jaguars and Cowboys. If you wind up thinking to yourself “Hmmm, maybe getting 14 points on the Jags is worth it” ... go outside.

It’s Total Recall …

You can also use our NFL Game Betting Model to identify the biggest edges on game totals, spreads, and moneylines!

What else is in today’s newsletter?

  1. Wednesday Charts—Team Expected Points Added Per Play

  2. The Grand Total—Gold In Them Thar Hills!

NFL CHARTS

Wednesday Charts🧠📊—Team Expected Points Added Per Play

Each week, we present the league through the lens of a single image. While no one picture or stat can truly shoulder such a load, learning to take the temperature of each team’s offensive and defensive expected points added (EPA) will sharpen your game—this per-play metric that defines the value of each play by the effect it has on the offense's likelihood to score.

It provides an analytically dense, perspective-laden snapshot that is absolutely worth familiarizing yourself with.

NOTE: The cross is league average. Also, positive EPA is ideal on both sides of the ball—so in this specific case below, the closer to the upper-right corner, the better a team’s combined performance in both phases.

THE GOOD:

PHI—Fly, Eagles, Fly! Philly’s up to five straight wins off the bye, laying waste to the opposition. Props in particular to the NFL’s top scoring and yardage defense for this ridiculous stat. Philadelphia’s 74+ yard differential this month represents a 62%+ lead on the field … and that includes Cincinnati.

BUF—Buffalo extended their win streak to five, continuing to boast an ability to win in whatever way the occasion calls for. The defense smooshed the Titans. When they stumbled versus Miami, the offense stepped it up. And how did Josh Allen respond to missing Amari Cooper for the second game straight? A shoulder shrug and back-to-back 30-point outings. Another BUF/KC AFC Championship game almost feels inevitable.

THE BAD:

CHI—When preseason hype turns to midseason firings, something’s gone terribly wrong. Losers of three in a row and dispellers of the post-bye-rookie-bump-myth, the Bears are down bad. However, Chicago’s being proactive. Apparently, the number 23 marked the magic number for TD-less drives before the plug gets pulled. Shane Waldron’s out, and Thomas Brown is in. You may remember him as Sean McVay’s RB coach during the 2021 Super Bowl run. Hopefully shaking the snowglobe can get things going for a talented team with an outside shot to make a run. 

TEN—The Titans must face facts. As constituted, they’re one-dimensional. It’s simple, play better defense or risk slipping into unspeakable “ugly” territory. Tennessee’s QB-less offense lacks any semblance of identity or direction despite some nice play recently from Tony Pollard and Calvin Ridley.

THE UGLY:

DAL—Dak Prescott needs season-ending surgery for the dreadful (3-6) Cowboys. Dallas has arguably the worst ground attack in the NFL and just totaled 66 passing yards in a professional football game between two “backups”. It’s over, Johnny.

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AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

⛳️ Action tees off tomorrow. Best bets for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship.

😱 An absolute debacle from one of the NBA’s best coaches. Flashbacks to Chris Webber at Michigan …

🚨 ICYMI: Week 11 early bets to consider … some value is still available.

📊 Movers and Shakers entering Week 12. Updated College Football Power Rankings.

🏀 The NBA is back with another Wednesday slate … betting edges to exploit.

NFL Betting

The Grand Total🏈🏛️—Gold In Them Thar Hills!

Falling short of San Fran’s team total last weekend on the back of three missed kicks really stung. I’m not shook. And I’m definitely not bitter with a taste for sweet revenge. Kidding aside, I laid out the initial case above for betting the over again this week. Seattle’s a tale of trajectory. The Seahawks came flying out of the gate with three wins in a row—and then the machine flat-out broke. 

There’s a case SEA’s the league’s worst defensive unit across the board since their Week 4 spanking in Detroit:

  • 29.7 Points Allowed Per Game: 31st

  • 412.0 Yards Allowed Per Game: 32nd

  • 6.3 Yards Allowed Per Play: 32nd

  • -0.10 EPA/Play: 30th

  • 43.8% Defensive Rush Success Rate: 29th

  • 151.0 Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 28th

  • 108.0 Opposer Passer Rating: 30th

  • -0.22 EPA/Dropback 30th

  • 261.0 Passing Yards  Allowed Per Game: 29th

Not sure how much of a bull case I need to make for SF, who hung 36 points on SEA last month and must be feeling great right now. Not only did they secure the win Sunday to go over .500—but “the precious” Christian McCaffrey withstood a monster workload to come out healthy on the other side.

The Niners already stood either first or second in essential overall team metrics like yards/game, yards/play, average drive distance, and yard differential—adding the best player on the planet Earth back into the mix can’t hurt.

(WE’RE WATCHING YOU JAKE MOODY!)

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