What is in today’s newsletter?

1. Worst Season Ever! Two teams who can challenge for the worst record in the NFL for 2024-25.

2. Matt LaMarca breaks down how to play the AFC North. Imagine betting against Joe Burrow?

3. USA vs France for Basketball gold. America opens as a massive favorite.

2024 Worst Regular Season Record Targets

by Geoff Ulrich 

Las Vegas Raiders +1600

The Raiders have a 6.5 W/L Total at most major sportsbooks, with the Over 6.5 wins juiced to -130 on DraftKings. I have no idea how they are still sitting at that number.

Projected starter Gardner Minshew was No. 31 out of 38 qualifiers in PFF grade last season, while projected starter number two, Aidan O’Connell, was 25th out of 32 QBs (min 300 or more snap) in EPA per play.

O’Connell went 5-5 last season as starter but four of the wins came against sub-.500 teams in the Jets, Chargers, Broncos, and Giants. This year, the Raiders will have the ninth-toughest schedule from a projected W/L Total perspective and open with road games against the Chargers and Ravens.

Schedule aside, the Raiders have all the ingredients we want in a team we’re betting on to have the worst record. Their best receiver is constantly in trade rumors and their head coach has had a tumultuous offseason and won’t have the luxury of catching opposing teams off guard next year with a new scheme.

I could go on, but you get the gist. The Raiders are just a team that seems like they want to lose, so they can go on selling the perennial rebuild to their fans for eternity.

Last year’s team benefited from a mid-season coaching change (and a defense that outperformed) but that move only works so many times and this year they’re likely to face better versions of the Chargers and Broncos. 

I like the Raiders under 6.5 wins but this is also a team that has all the requisite ingredients to be the worst team in the league. At +1600, they have less talent and arguably a far worse coaching staff than the Titans (+1200) or Commanders (+1300), making them a preferred bet for me heading into 2024-25.  

Minnesota Vikings +1300

The Vikings’ moves this offseason could best be classified as the NFL's “desperation starter kit” for coaching staffs and GMs on the hot seat. They over-drafted a QB in the first round, gave a WR a record-breaking deal to keep him happy, and signed an aging veteran at RB to inject some life into their running game. 

This was all done to try to mask a team that finished 7-10 last year and was below average in EPA per play on offense (18th) and defense (17th). 

Try as they might to stay relevant, trouble already looks like it’s on the way for Minnesota.

Seventh-round pick JJ McCarthy is well behind Sam Darnold on the depth chart who – outside of him bombing completely in the preseason – now looks like a lock to start Week 1. Darnold went 4-8 in his last long stint as a starter in 2021 and ranked 29th out of 31 QBs in EPA per play that year. 

Second-year WR Jordan Addison has also done his part to ensure 2024-25 is as messy as possible as he now faces a potential three-game suspension for a DUI charge from a July 12th incident. Not great considering that TE TJ Hockeson (knee) is expected to start the season on the PUP list.  

Regardless of which QB starts, they’ll be in tough to make a difference. The Vikings have the fourth-hardest schedule in the league and after opening against the Giants will face the 49ers, Texans, Packers, Jets, Lions, Rams, Colts, and Jaguars. All teams with win totals of 8.5 or greater. 

I’ve already bet the Vikings under 6.5 wins in our Bet Tracker but will be adding some exposure to them in the worst-record market as well. They’re not without talent but if things don’t work out as expected, their downside is just as big as some of the team below them in odds. 

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Be on the lookout for more betting product launches as we approach Week 1 of the NFL season, too!

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AFC North Preview: Cincinnati Bengals

by Matt LaMarca

• Win Total: 10.5 Over (-110; Caesars), Under (+110; FanDuel)

• Make Playoffs: Yes (-220; FanDuel), No (+205; DraftKings)

• To Win Division: +165 (FanDuel)

• To Win AFC: +750 (FanDuel)

• To Win Super Bowl: +1500 (FanDuel)

Looking back at it, I’m still not sure how this team managed to win nine games last year. They essentially had five games from Joe Burrow when he was at full strength, and the team did go 4-1 in those contests. Their only blemish was a three-point loss to the Texans, and there’s certainly no shame in that.

The fact that this team managed to go 4-3 in Jake Browning’s seven starts is a testament to Zac Taylor, defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, and the team’s overall skill level. They did that despite facing the toughest schedule in the NFL and quite possibly one of the toughest schedules in history.

The Bengals played 11 games last season against teams that made the postseason, which is the most since at least 2000. They played 14 games against teams that finished above .500, which was tied for the most since 2000.

Fortunately, the Bengals schedule will lighten up significantly in 2024. Such is the benefit of being a last-place team. They currently are projected for the sixth-easiest schedule based on Vegas win totals, while the Ravens (28th), Browns (30th), and Steelers (32nd) all have to run the gauntlet. The schedule makers didn’t do them any favors with when they’ll play each opponent – they’ll be at a rest disadvantage in some of their toughest matchups – but it’s a group of foes that should leave the Bengals feeling optimistic.

The big question marks for this team are in the trenches. The offensive line has been terrible ever since Burrow took over at QB, ranking 27th or worse in ESPN’s pass block win rate in three straight seasons. They unsurprisingly used their first-round pick on an offensive tackle (Amarius Mims), but he’ll have to replace the departed Jonah Williams. Williams was merely 59th in PFF grade among offensive tackles last season, so that could end up being an upgrade.

The bigger loss is defensive tackle D.J. Reader. Over the past two seasons, the Bengals have been No. 1 in yards per attempt and EPA/rush with Reader on the field. With him off the field, they drop to 32nd in YPA and 31st in EPA. It has the potential to be a massive downgrade.

Still, it is far better to be weak against the run than the pass. We saw the Chiefs just win the Super Bowl with an awful run defense, so it’s not a death blow. If they can get after the quarterback with Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard, the defense could still be above-average overall.

The Bengals need a healthy Burrow this season, which will always be a question mark behind their terrible offensive line. However, the sky is the limit if he’s on the field. Given how much easier their schedule is than the Ravens’, I like their odds to win the division at +165.

I’ll also have some exposure to them to finish with the best record in football during the regular season (+1100; FanDuel). The three teams in front of them in that department – the Chiefs, 49ers, and Eagles – all have to play tougher schedules.

Best Bets:

• Bengals to win the division (+165);

• Bengals best regular season record (+1100);

• Joe Burrow Comeback Player of the Year (+300)

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of football nerds:

🏀 Strap in. It’s USA vs host France for Basketball Gold. Will the US bring back Freedom Fries if they lose?

🏈 Tons of football coming this Saturday. Caleb Williams will make his debut vs. Josh Allen (for at least a drive).

🤔 The Brandon Aiyuk saga shows no signs of slowing down. The latest rumor has the 49ers wanting a WR in return.

😬 Will the Patriots’ luck finally turn? Bettors are fading the former dynasty, en masse, this year.

⏩ Noah Lyles is so fast Covid couldn’t even keep him off the podium. Doing the 200m in 19.70 while sick is… sick!

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