⛳ Big Talent with Big Odds at the Byron

“It’s gonna be May!” — Justin Timberlake. Decent singer. Elite golfer.

In today’s Betting Life newsletter, presented by Moby:

The CJ Cup Byron Nelson moved to TPC Craig Ranch at the start of 2021, and since then, it’s become an outright sprint from a scoring perspective. KH Lee won back-to-back Byron titles in ‘21 and ‘22, getting to -25 and -26 respectively. Last year’s winner, Jason Day, ended his week at -23 despite the course being shifted to a par 71. Even with just three par 5s, Craig Ranch STILL allowed the third most birdies on the PGA TOUR in 2023.

Greens are on the larger side and easy to hit, while scrambling is also relatively simple (players got up and down with the second-best success rate at this venue last season). Past winners at Craig Ranch have generally gained most of their strokes on approach. In 2021, Lee was one of the leaders in approach proximity for the week, and elite ball-striking was paramount to his success in both wins (he gained over 7.5 strokes ball-striking in 2021 and 2022).

The conditions aren’t likely to slow things down much this season, either. Thunderstorms are in store for Thursday and Saturday, which could cause delays but will also soften up an already easy setup. For betting, it’s a week to go after specialists. Good all-around play is important, but sacrificing some upside in the around-the-green and the off-the-tee department is OK as long as we can get to players with elite approach games, putting, and decent odds.

That leads to my first pick…

🚂 Tom Kim Outright (+2800; DraftKings)

Kim’s Sunday 66 at the Masters a few weeks ago was one of the best rounds of the tournament. The 21-year-old struggled before the first major but finished his Masters week with a big round that showcased why he’s still one of the best young talents in the game. He successfully followed up that effort with a decent finish at the RBC Heritage, where he posted a T18 (and cashed the top-20 bet we featured him in that week).

The 21-year-old was soundly positive in strokes gained putting and approach stats at Hilton Head, and he managed to close off his week in solid fashion despite some poor weather on Sunday. We’ve seen approach dynamos like Austin Eckroat and countryman Si Woo Kim dominate at Craig Ranch, and Kim’s prowess on the greens trumps what both of these former Byron Nelson runner-ups bring in terms of upside with the putter.

From a talent perspective, he’s also got a great case to be backed at the price range he finds himself in. Kim’s three wins since 2022 (all of which came in lower-scoring events) trumps everyone in this field, including event favorite Jordan Spieth, whose last victory came in April of 2022 (Kim’s won three times since that event). With his form building and a birdiefest on the docket, I’d have no issues backing Kim down to +2500 this week in a relatively weak field.

📈 Mark Hubbard Each Way 1/5 top 8 (+5500; bet365)

Much like Kim, Hubbard’s the kind of specialist from a player profile perspective I like for this setup. He’s developed into a solid iron player (26th in approach stats over the last 24 rounds) and has already gained over 8.0 strokes on approach twice this season (against decent fields at the Farmers and PLAYERS). That sort of upside-on approach is exactly what led the once-winless KH Lee to victory back in 2021. Hubbard — who has now made 11 cuts in a row on the PGA TOUR — is starting to show that he may be ready to take that next step soon as well.

He’s made the cut at this venue each of the past two seasons — gaining multiple strokes putting and on approach both times — and, like Lee, has also had success at another Tom Weiskopf design in TPC Scottsdale, where he finished T9 back in 2020.

Having nearly tasted victory last week (T3 Zurich Classic), this feels like as good a time as any to back the 34-year-old, who still sits at very playable prices and doesn’t require a huge investment to generate big returns, either as a placement, each-way, or outright bet.

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💰 NHL bets for tonight’s two-game slate. The best goal prop for Edmonton vs Los Angeles and more.

⚾️ Back to the diamond we go. MLB best bets for Wednesday.

🏒 Did someone hit the slo-mo? Evgeny Kuznetsov helped the Hurricanes eliminate the Islanders with a sick penalty shot.

🙏 Tyrese Maxey. Basketball player and betting hero. This late prayer allowed over bettors to cash on Tuesday. 

🤯 New York Knicks giveth, and the New York Knicks taketh. How did they not win Game 5!

🐝 A colony of Bees invaded an MLB game in Arizona. In other news, the team beekeeper is 1 for 1 in save attempts this season.

🏇 Kentucky Derby odds are live! Can anyone beat Fierceness?

🎙️ Get prepped for the biggest horse racing weekend of the year. Racing expert Duane Colucci joins Freedman to talk Kentucky Derby.

The NBA playoffs continue on Wednesday, with another team facing elimination in the Eastern Conference. Matt LaMarca is here to break down how to attack the betting slate…

🔥 Heat (+14.0) at Celtics (-110, FanDuel)

After the Celtics dropped Game 2 in Boston, they’ve appeared to buckle down and regain a stranglehold on this series. They thumped the Heat in Game 3, with their defense smothering Miami and limiting them to just 84 points.

Miami managed just 88 points in Game 4, but it wasn’t exactly the same story.

The Heat had some open looks in that contest; they just couldn’t make any of them. They were merely 5-16 on “open” 3-pointers (31.3%), and they were just 2-11 on “wide-open” 3-point attempts (18.2%).

The Heat were the second-best shooting team on “wide-open” 3-pointers during the regular season (41.3%), so I would not expect another shooting performance of that caliber.

Additionally, the Celtics are going to be without Kristaps Porzingis in this matchup. Porzingis is not the Celtics’ best player, but he’s one of their most important. They’ve been at their best defensively with Porzingis anchoring the middle, and he allows them to maintain their elite spacing on offense. Without him, they’ll have to lean a bit more on Al Horford, who is not the same caliber of player at this point in his career.

The Celtics should still be able to get the job done in Game 5 – especially with the series back in Boston – but this game should be closer than Game 4. I’ll take the points with Miami.