⚔️ The Battle for the Western Conference Starts NOW

Anthony Edwards: the best thing for Minnesota tourism since the Mall of America.

In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by Underdog:

Well, that’s one way to start the penultimate round of the NBA playoffs.

The Pacers were massive underdogs against the Celtics – in the series and in Game 1 – but they appeared to have them on the ropes. They were up three with the ball and less than 10 seconds left on the clock, so all they needed to do was avoid shooting themselves in the foot.

We all know what happens next. A turnover on the inbounds play followed by a Jaylen Brown 3-pointer ultimately leads to a Celtics’ win. They say there’s some magic in the Boston Garden, and it certainly felt like it on Tuesday.

The focus shifts to the Western Conference on Wednesday. The Timberwolves will host the Mavericks in a matchup that very few people saw coming. The T’Wolves had to get through two really tough matchups to get here, knocking off Kevin Durant and the Suns in the first round and the defending champs in the second. The Mavericks haven’t had a walk in the park either, getting past the Clippers and Thunder.

Which of these teams can punch their ticket to the Finals, and who has the edge in Game 1? Let’s dive in.

🐴 Mavericks +4.5 at Timberwolves (-110; BetMGM)

The Timberwolves have become everyone’s favorite team during the playoffs. Anthony Edwards is either Michael Jordan or Kobe Bryant depending on the day, and they play defense better than anyone. After beating the Nuggets, most people seem to think that they’re just going to cruise past the Mavericks. They’ve received 77% of the spread bets for Game 1 (per the Action Network), and they’re solid favorites to win the series overall.

Personally, I think the Mavericks are being disrespected. They have two of the best offensive players in the game, with Luka Doncic arguably the best overall. Shutting down this duo is not going to be a walk in the park, even for the Timberwolves’ elite defense. As we saw on Tuesday with the Pacers – who racked up 128 points vs. the Celtics’ No. 2 defense – a good offense can overcome a tough matchup.

The Mavericks look like a particularly strong betting option in Game 1. Historically, teams coming off a Game 7 win are prime fade targets in the next round. They’re just 17-30-1 ATS against teams that did not play a Game 7 in the previous series over the past 20 years. The Pacers managed to buck that trend on Tuesday, but they were double-digit underdogs; the Timberwolves are favored.

The sharps also appear to like the Mavs in this spot, so I’m happy to grab 4.5 points. I don’t mind a sprinkle on the moneyline, either (+164; FanDuel).

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⛳ The PGA TOUR is back in Texas this week. Outright bets that include a 300-1 longshot for the Charles Schwab Challenge.

⚾️ A full slate of action on the diamond. Wednesday’s best MLB bets.

🤑 Hedge or let it ride? A bettor could turn $50 in $98k if the Mavericks upset the Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals.

🤦 The Pacers had the Celtics down and out in Game 1; then they didn’t. Their coach took the blame. 

😮 A picture is worth a thousand words. This shot of Jaylen Brown’s regulation-tying 3-pointer is amazing.

3⃣ Caitlin Clark is still looking for her first professional win. That said, she still has the logo 3-pointer in her bag.

👑 LeBron may be The King, but Mewtwo is a stone-cold killer. Stephen A. Smith sparks a hilarious debate on X.

🥶 Joe Burrow is busting out a new look for 2024. Just don’t let Patrick Mahomes get the high ground.

The Conference Finals start today in the NHL, with the President’s Trophy-winning New York Rangers taking on the Florida Panthers in New York. Despite being the first seed in the East, the Rangers are underdogs both in this series and at home for Game 1. So, are the Rangers being taken too lightly, or is there value on the favorite? Geoff Ulrich answers below.

🌴 Panthers Win in Regulation (+140; DraftKings)

The Panthers come into this game with one fewer day of rest than the Rangers, which may be a good thing. Their long layoff after Round 1 saw Florida come out flat in Game 1 against Boston, and while they turned things around quickly, the Panthers undoubtedly want to avoid a similar outcome in Round 3 and should be ready for the Rangers tonight. 

Momentum and narratives aside, the Panthers have also proven they’re the superior team in these playoffs. The Rangers are operating at a 31% clip on the power play but rank last of all four remaining teams in xGF% at even strength for the playoffs – while Florida ranks first. The Panthers' heavy-handed approach saw them outshoot Boston in every game in Round 2 and eventually wear the Bruins down. If they come out hard for Game 1, they’ll likely get the Rangers chasing early. The Panthers have also proven to be an adept penalty-killing team with solid depth they can rotate throughout the game, so it's no guarantee we’ll see the Rangers' power play operate with the same kind of efficiency we have seen from them throughout the playoffs. 

When it boils down to it, Florida is available at -115 on the Moneyline and +145 on the regulation line today. For comparison, they went off at -155 on the straight Moneyline in Game 6 in Boston, so while the Panthers remain the favorites, they’re being priced as if their opponent today is far superior to the one they just beat. The Rangers are solid, but I’m not sure they’re necessarily a huge step above Boston, making this discounted regulation price on Florida worth taking for Game 1.

🏒 Sam Reinhart Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+125; bet365)

Reinhart has been a machine for the Panthers for much of these playoffs. The winger accumulated 57 goals in the regular season and scored twice in the final four games against Boston. He also attempted 49 shots during Round 2 (8.16 attempts per game) and landed 25 shots on net (51% hit rate and 4.16 SOG per game). 

Despite the solid production, Reinhart’s odds today in the shots-on-goal market have seemingly reset for this matchup against New York. His total remains at 3.5, but his over is now available at +120 or better on most sportsbooks. The Rangers have some great special teams, but they’re not much different from Boston in that they do allow a decent number of shots on net (32.5 per game in the playoffs) and tend to over-rely on their elite goaltender to make stops for them — so they can counter with speed and aggressiveness. 

That’s good news for Reinhart, who seems unlikely to slow down much from his Round 2 pace, making his over a decent value for Game 1.