🌭 Baseball and Bracket-Busters

How can you not be romantic about baseball?

In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by BetMGM.

There’s just something magical about baseball.

Maybe it has to do with the changing of the seasons. Maybe it’s the memory of the first time that you saw an MLB stadium in person. Maybe it’s all the great sounds – the crack of the bat, the pop of the ball hitting the catcher’s mitt, the organ playing “Take Me Out to the Ballgame.”

Whatever it is, the start of baseball season gets me more excited than any other sport. No matter how old I get, Opening Day always makes me feel like a kid again.

I’ve already taken a look at some of my favorite season-long futures and some of the biggest questions heading into the year, but now it’s time to shift gears. We’ve unfortunately had a couple of games canceled due to inclement weather – such is April baseball on the East Coast – but we still have lots of opportunities to look for value on Opening Day…

⚾ Tampa Bay Rays (-135) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (BetMGM)

One of the most intriguing matchups on Opening Day pits two AL East rivals against each other. Both the Rays and Blue Jays have playoff aspirations in 2024, but they’ll have to navigate the toughest division in the league.

The Rays opened at just -105 for this contest, but they’ve shot all the way up to -135. The sharps are all over Tampa in this spot, and I’m with them 100%.

The Blue Jays will send Jose Berrios to the bump to start the year, a pitcher who turned his career around in 2023. He pitched to a 3.65 ERA across 32 starts after posting a 5.23 ERA the year prior. I don’t think Berrios will turn into a pumpkin in 2024, but his advanced metrics suggest he was clearly fortunate in 2023. His 4.51 xERA was nearly a full run higher than his traditional mark, thanks in part to some subpar Statcast data.

The Rays feasted on right-handed pitching last year, ranking second in the league in wRC+. They thrived in two matchups vs. Berrios, with the right-hander posting a 5.50 ERA in those outings. Overall, I expect Berrios to struggle in this matchup.

Meanwhile, Zach Eflin will get the ball for Tampa Bay, and he’s coming off a breakout year in 2023. He pitched to a 3.02 xERA and 3.01 while striking out nearly 9.5 batters per nine innings.

Add it all up, and I give the Rays the edge on the mound and in the batter’s box. The fact that the line has moved this drastically kills some of the potential value, but I’d play Tampa up to -140.

👑 Kansas City Royals (+104) vs. Minnesota Twins (FanDuel)

This one is pretty simple for me. I discussed the Royals as a potential sleeper team in the AL Central during a recent podcast, and Cole Ragans was one of the big reasons why. He was nothing short of a superstar after being acquired from the Rangers before the deadline.

After struggling to a 5.92 ERA out of the bullpen with the Rangers, he moved to the starting rotation in Kansas City. He responded with a 2.64 ERA and 11.2 K/9 across 12 starts, and his advanced metrics were equally sparkling.

The biggest reason for Ragans’ improvement was his fastball. He averaged 96.7 miles per hour, the second-hardest mark for all left-handed starters in 2023. He even touched triple-digits during an August start vs. the A’s, where they managed just two hits with 11 strikeouts across six innings.

Ragans also debuted a slider after being traded to the Royals, and it immediately emerged as one of the best in the business. He generated swings on 64% of his offerings, and opposing batters whiffed at a 40% clip.

Ragans will get the ball on Opening Day against a Twins’ squad that was league-average in that split last season. It’s a good spot for him to start his 2024 campaign on a high note.

The Twins will have a strong starter of their own on the mound in Pablo Lopez, so the under is another play to consider in this matchup. That said, I can’t pass up the prospect of grabbing Ragans at plus-money. If he’s as good as he was last year, we won’t have a ton of opportunities to back him as an underdog for long.

🤑 Step up to the Plate...

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️⛳️ Scottie Scheffler or the field? It’s a legit question for bettors at the Texas Children’s Hospital Open.

🍺 Clean up aisle nine. Justin Thomas’ performance at the Rangers game was as sloppy as his tournament was last week.

🧢 MOAR Baseball (you know you want it). MLB Bets and Futures are Live in our tracker.

💰 (1) UConn moneyline vs. (5) San Diego State (Parlay with UNC ML) (-132, FanDuel)

I’ll be backing the Tar Heels in two ways heading into their matchup. The first way is on their team total over, and the second will be in a two-team moneyline parlay with the Connecticut Huskies.

Like UNC, UConn’s spread took immediate action from the opener. While I managed to get the Tar Heels on the open, I sadly missed out on a UConn -9.5 when the market first opened up. Tying them into a moneyline parlay with UNC helps me bridge that gap, as I believe both are in a great position to advance into the Elite 8.

They've shown that they are in a class all of their own since the start of tournament play and it should be no different with their advantages against the Aztecs.

UConn’s offense thrives with their size, separation ability off of screens, and relentless pursuit of crashing the glass. All facets of an offense that can break the best defenses, including the Aztecs, who rank 10th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.

Donovan Clingan is a matchup nightmare and has a five-inch height advantage against the tallest regular player for SDSU. Even if UConn’s offense runs cold from the perimeter, Clingan will be able to give their offense extra possessions with his offensive rebounding prowess.

Extra offensive possessions for UConn are something San Diego State can not afford, as it is already hard enough to match their scoring pace. Especially with scoring being a potential issue for them on the other end as they rank 60th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and face a Huskies defense who clocks in at 11th in AdjD.

Unlike Alabama’s defense, which gives up looks at the rim and the perimeter at a high rate, UConn locks both areas down. They will gladly allow you to take ill-advised shots underneath the arc but will suffocate you into turnovers and havoc-minded plays if you stop and think otherwise, which will lead to easy points in transition for the Huskies.

It’s an intriguing matchup on paper as this is a rematch from last year's National Championship, but expect more of the same with UConn taking care of business as they make their way to the Elite 8. Parlay both UNC and UConn’s moneylines into a two-team parlay and look for UConn live at -9.5 or better should they start out slow.