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⏱️ Back to the Futures
MLB preview and more
To quote Doc Brown: “Hedging? Where we’re going, we don’t need hedging”.
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by Underdog:
Futures: Hockey, Golf and … Football?! (never too early)
MLB Preview: The Braves are undervalued
March Madness: The favorites have raked
NBA Monday: Points at a premium in Denver
It’s 3/25. Take it away, Geoff Ulrich
April is a great month for sports and, of course, betting. The Final Four kicks the month off and rolls right into the Masters, easily the best week of the year for golf degenerates. While that’s going on, we have playoff spots being decided in the NHL and NBA, the NFL draft (April 25th), and the start of the MLB season.
Our baseball guru Matt LaMarca has an MLB futures preview later on, and since we’re focusing on futures, I thought now would be a great time to do a round-up of some of my favorite futures across multiple sports.
One angle I like for this year’s Masters? Taking advantage of the discounted odds on players from LIV Golf. While most of the top PGA pros have seen their odds compress since the beginning of February, many of the LIV players have seen their odds get bigger.
Brooks Koepka +1600 (February) —> +2100 (today)
Cameron Smith +2500 (February) —> +3100 (today)
Bryson DeChambeau +3300 (February) —> +4600 (today)
For me, the best opportunity is now with the 30-year-old Cameron Smith. Smith is pretty much everything we look for in a Masters winner. He’s accumulated plenty of high finishes around Augusta and comes in having lost in a playoff his last time out on LIV. With only one LIV event left before the first major, another big finish could send his odds south of 30-1, which makes this a great time to jump on board with the Aussie.
The Western Conference in the NHL is wide open. The Avalanche (whom the Predators beat 5-1 on March 2) and Oilers have question marks in net, Vancouver is raw, and the Stars are still a bit too Jekyll & Hyde (for me) to deserve their short price.
Nashville has arguably the best upside in net in the conference with Jusse Saros, has been dominant 5v5 (they’re now seventh in xGF%, ahead of the Avalanche), and has underrated top-end talent in Filip Forsberg and Roman Josi. They’re currently sixth in the conference and depending on how things break down, could still draw Vancouver in the first round (the weakest team in the top four for me).
It’s a good time to grab Nashville, as they’ll likely draw lots of Cinderella-style attention as the first round draws closer.
The Rams opened up Free Agency by signing arguably the best guard on the market in Jonah Jackson, added secondary help in Kamren Curl and Darius Williams, added QB depth in Jimmy Garoppolo, and added receiving depth by signing TE Colby Parkinson and re-signing WR Demarcus Robinson.
All that good momentum was seemingly lost, however, when Aaron Donald announced his retirement. Despite losing Donald, I still really like the position for the Rams going into the draft. They have a first-round pick this year (23rd overall) and should be able to address some of their outstanding defensive needs (D-Line and secondary).
This is a good time to jump on board, as a strong draft could cause these odds to shrink by the time May rolls around.
MLB Opening Day is on Thursday, which means it’s a great time to look at the futures market. Matt LaMarca breaks down two of his favorite options to target…
The Dodgers being massive favorites to hoist the Commissioners Trophy has pushed down the odds for the rest of the league. That’s great news for bettors.
While the Dodgers might be the best team in baseball, it’s far from a lock that they’ll win the World Series. Look no further than their recent history: they’ve won once in the past 11 years despite reaching the playoffs each season. There’s a big difference between being the best team in the league over a 162-game sample and winning a seven-game series.
As talented as the Dodgers are, I would argue the Braves are just as good. Their offense features an All-Star-caliber hitter at nearly every position, and they were first in wRC+ last year. Their pitching staff features arguably the best starter in the league in Spencer Strider, while Max Fried, Charlie Morton, and Chris Sale all have ace potential.
PECOTA gives the Braves roughly an 18% chance of winning the World Series, just slightly lower than the Dodgers’ mark of 20.8%. FanGraphs is actually higher on the Braves than the Dodgers, giving Atlanta a 25.5% chance of winning it all.
Even if we use the more bearish figure, +600 still represents a solid value. It translates to an implied probability of just 14.3%, so I’m happy to grab the Braves at that number. Atlanta has decreased to closer to +450 across most of the industry, so lock in this number with Caesars while you still can.
It’s kind of shocking that Alvarez has yet to hit 40 homers in a season. He’s established himself as one of the best hitters in baseball over the past few years, but he’s yet to have that truly monster season. I’m a believer that 2024 could be it.
For starters, Alvarez is an absolute Statcast god. You name a category, and Alvarez excels at it. Hard hit rate? 96th percentile. Barrel rate? 99th percentile. Max exit velocity? 99th percentile. Add it all up, and his expected slugging percentage of .626 ranked fourth in baseball. Only Aaron Judge, Ohtani, and Ronald Acuna Jr. were better.
The biggest issue for Alvarez has been health. He played in just 114 games last year, yet he still managed 31 bombs. If he can get to 150 this season, 40 homers should be a lock with 50-homer upside.
Alvarez is priced fairly at +900 on Caesars, so I’m grabbing the +1400 on BetMGM every day of the week.
Baseball is Right Around the Corner!
So that means it's to start drafting for Baseball 2024!
The Dinger, The Perfect Game, MLB Eliminators and more are live on Underdog Fantasy!
No better way to enjoy Spring than with some drafting on Underdog! And since football season never really ends, Underdog already has a Big Board contest open for the 2024 Football Season!!
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Good luck, and start drafting on Underdog Fantasy!
📺 Opening Day is around the corner. Everything you need to dominate the MLB season.
🏀 Don’t worry, we still have plenty of March Madness coverage. Our on-site projections have been on fire, and they’re FREE.
🧐 Sanity over Madness? Favorites in the round of 32 were straight-up dominant.
🤝 Want (aka need) more college basketball bets? Join our discord!
🦤 The Ancient Mariner is in shambles. There was an Albatross this week on the PGA!!
🏛️ A Capital success story. Deadline seller Washington is now a (slight) favorite to make the NHL post-season.
🤨 Risk-free? You sure about that? One announcer got a little careless with his betting verbiage.
💰 Another long-shot winner. Peter Malnati took down his second PGA event and paid off big odds (for anyone bold enough to bet him).
🏅 It’s busy season, and our tracker has you covered. Best bets across all the major sports (+15.51 units in NBA on the year).
Monday features a giant 11-game slate, and there is lots of injury information to decipher. LaMarca breaks down a few of his favorite options in the betting market…
This season has not gone as planned for the Grizzlies. They were one of the top teams in the West last year, earning the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference thanks to a dynamic young core. Ja Morant emerged as an MVP candidate, while Jaren Jackson Jr. took home Defensive Player of the Year. Desmond Bane also averaged a career-best 21.5 points per game while shooting better than 40% from 3-point range.
Sadly, injuries have plagued this team all season. Morant has missed nearly the entire season due to injuries and suspension, while Bane has been in and out of the lineup. He’s officially questionable for Monday’s matchup vs. the Nuggets, along with a host of other players. The team ultimately has six players already ruled out, three players listed as doubtful, and another three players considered questionable.
With Memphis in a state of disarray, it wouldn’t shock me if the Nuggets rested some of their top guns as well. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray both missed the team’s last game, and they could get another night off to recuperate.
Add it all up, and points should be at a premium in this matchup. The Nuggets offense would obviously take a serious hit without their two best players: they’ve averaged just 106.1 points per 100 possessions with Jokic and Murray off the floor. The Grizzlies have been awful offensively all season, ranking dead last in offensive efficiency. Both of these teams also play at a slow pace – Denver ranks 27th, Memphis 17th – and this looks like a clear under.
The Cavaliers got some help in their last contest, with Evan Mobley returning to the lineup following a nine-game absence. However, he’s going to play limited minutes while the team looks to build him up for the playoffs.
Donovan Mitchell also remains out of the lineup, which is a major boost for LeVert. Not only will he likely be in the starting lineup, but he’s also increased his assist rate by +3.8% with Mitchell off the floor. The result is an average of 7.44 assists per 36 minutes.
LeVert is coming off just one dime in his last outing, but he played just 20.3 minutes in a 37-point loss. He had played at least 36.9 minutes in his three previous starts. LeVert averaged 8.7 assists over his previous nine contests, so this feels like an outstanding buy-low opportunity.
