🏝 Back to Boston or Off to Cancun?

Is going to Cancun mandatory for NBA players? Can they go to the Bahamas instead?

In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by Fantasy Life Magazine:

This series certainly hasn’t been one for the record books. The Mavericks hung tough in Games 2 and 3, but ultimately, the Celtics are just one win away from the 18th championship in franchise history.

No team has ever come back from an 0-3 deficit in any round of the NBA postseason, let alone the NBA Finals. Of the 156 teams that have fallen into an 0-3 hole, only 15 have managed to force a Game 6. Four have managed to get to a Game 7, but none has been able to accomplish the comeback.

With that in mind, it feels like the Mavericks are currently on death row. The best they can hope for is a stay of execution.

Can they push things back to Boston for a Game 5, or will this series get wrapped up on Friday? Let’s dive into how I’m playing Game 4.

☘️ Celtics ML at Mavericks (-110; BetMGM)

This has been a brutal Finals for the sharps. We’ve seen sharp action on the over in all three games, and none have approached the total. They’ve also been on the Mavericks in the past two contests, and depending on the number you got Dallas at in Game 2, they’ve failed to cover in both spots.

They’re going back to the well with Dallas in Game 4, but I struggle to see where the improvement is going to come from. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are going to struggle to play better than they did in Game 3. They combined for 62 points, and while Doncic did foul out with four minutes left in the game, he already looked pretty much out of gas at that point.

Luka’s conditioning remains a massive question mark for the Mavericks. We’ve seen him have elite first-half performances in this series only to sputter across the finish line. He was just 4-11 from the field in the second half of Game 3, and he’s now 12-31 in the second half across all three contests (38.7%).

It’s important to remember that Luka is still young and that this is his first real taste of Finals action. He has plenty of time to improve, but that’s not going to happen in between Games 3 and 4. He’s still going to complain to the refs, he’s still going to struggle on defense, and he’s still going to be guarded physically the full length of the court.

The scariest part is that we still haven’t seen a complete game out of the Celtics yet. They’ve shown flashes of their brilliance – the first half of Game 1, the third quarter of Game 3 – but they’ve yet to do it for a full 48 minutes. If they have a game where they’re knocking down 40% of their 3-pointers, it’s a wrap.

Finally, there’s the motivational angle for Dallas. They’re not just going to give up, but deep down, they know this series is over. Even if they do manage to win in Game 4, they’re likely just going to lose in Game 5 back in Boston. Why delay the inevitable?

This has always been Boston’s year to win. It doesn’t matter if they have Kristaps Porzingis or not – this is simply the best team in basketball. It’s time to crown the champs.

💥 UFC Fight Night: Perez Vs. Taira goes off this Saturday and we got the bets. Can Alex Perez land the upset?

💣 Move over Woj; Brian Windhorst was dropping bombs after Game 3. He did not hold back on Luka Doncic.

🏆 Jaylen Brown was +220 to win Finals MVP before erupting in the second half. Now, he’s the overwhelming favorite.

️⛳️ They don’t call it the toughest test in golf for nothing. Collin Morikawa — you’re still away.

📈 Patrick Cantlay starts the event RED HOT. He only needed 23 putts en route to an opening round 65.

️⚽️ Team USA secures a 1-1 draw with Brazil. Are you backing them at +1400 to win the Copa America?

🥅 Sergei Bobrovsky is now a massive favorite to win the Conn Smyth. Short odds, but likely not short enough.

💰 Trevor Lawrence GOT PAID. But does “Florida Daniel Jones” really deserve it?

Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Finals goes off on Saturday night. Florida is up 3-0, but if you’ve watched the games, it has been far from complete domination. So do we call game and ride the Panthers' momentum, or can Connor McDavid and the Oilers stars finally get off the snide? Geoff Ulrich dives in below.

💧 Edmonton Oilers Moneyline (-120; bet365)

If we look at the three games played thus far the underlying stats say that Edmonton could have easily come out in front of two of them. The Oilers have a 55.6 xGF% at even strength but are also 0-10 on the power play. They were due for a little short-term regression on special teams, but it’s hit them all at once. A one-game bump at this point almost seems more likely than another game where the power play posts a donut. 

The Oilers have also been unfortunate to run into a force named Sergei Bobrovsky and their frustration of not being able to beat him has led to mistakes. No doubt, the potential of Bobrovsky just stonewalling McDavid and crew for 60 more minutes exists. However, the sheer odds of the Russian keeping them off the scoresheet — and in the win column — for four straight games is a daunting enough task in its own right.

We’re out one bet if the Panthers win, but if Edmonton wins, we get to lock in profit and can also look to back Florida at home in Game 5, a game they’ll surely be up for. I like that route and will stick with Edmonton for one last ride. 

🏒 Vladimir Tarasenko Over 1.5 SOG (-145; DraftKings)

• Anytime Goal Scorer (+420; FanDuel)

Despite Tarasenko only playing around 12 minutes a game, his underlying stats look fantastic. He’s averaged 5.25 shot attempts per game in this series and has now gone over this 1.5 SOG prop in seven straight games. Despite all that, the odds of him going over 1.5 SOG remain at -145, a level I’m happy to take advantage of on Saturday. 

We could see Tarasenko regress a little given his lack of ice time, but the way the Panthers have been deploying him has been smart. The shorter shifts have meant he’s been fresher when on the ice, and he’s also benefited from Anton Lundell being pushed down the lineup, who has centered his line for the last five or six games.

I don’t think looking to Tarasenko to score for the second game in a row is that outlandish an idea, either. As mentioned above, he’s been far more aggressive with his shot after being moved away from the equally trigger-happy Sam Bennett, and his anytime goal scorer odds remain in the +400 range on most sportsbooks. 

He landed a big goal for them in Game 6 to close out the Rangers, and with how effective he’s been in this series, he’s a player I would also keep in mind for any live goal scorer bets should the game go to OT.