Do people still have watercoolers? Around the Slack? Here’s what I’m reading …

💪 These NFL Draft prospects have a lot on the line.

💔 Time to say goodbye to Kyler Murray? Kendall and cooterdoodle make the case.

🤢 Ban the Tush Push? Someone is green with envy.

💎 The Commanders got a gem in Jayden Daniels, now they just need to add some more jewels.

🦬 We love Josh Allen. Bills, how about getting him some more help?

🧞‍♂️ The genie is out of the bottle and granting one Free Agency wish to every NFC and AFC team.

👀 Freedman has some surprises in the latest NFL Mock Draft.

⚾🪐MLB Team Preview—Houston Astros🪐⚾

The Astros finished 2024 at 88-73, good for another American League West divisional crown in a fourth straight year—the first time that’s been accomplished since 1971–1975, when Reggie Jackson was stirring drinks for the Athletics.

While obviously that’s a commendable season on the ledger, it also represented the lowest win total of any division winner in MLB—and they’ve gotten markedly worse over the offseason. Could 2025 mark the first time in nine seasons the Astros miss the postseason? Las Vegas doesn’t seem to think so, if the current (-185) line, or~65% implied probability is any indication.

Before diving in headlong, I must admit I have my doubts …

Projected Opening Day Lineup w/BAT X Projections: (BA / R / RBI / HR / SB)

1. Jose Altuve, LF: .258 / 79 / 67 / 17 / 15

2. Isaac Paredes, 3B: .231 / 68 / 66 / 20 / 1

3. Yordan Alvarez, DH: .294 / 91 / 104 / 38 / 2

4. Christian Walker, 1B: .235 / 77 / 83 / 29 / 5

5. Yainer Diaz, C: .275 / 62 / 68 / 17 / 1

6. Jeremy Peña, SS: .263 / 76 / 62 / 13 / 19

7. Chas McCormick, RF: .233 / 50 / 43 / 12 / 12

8. Brendan Rodgers, 2B: .245 / 38 / 40 / 9 / 1

9. Jake Meyers, CF: .240 / 50 / 45 / 12 / 8

Hitting Overview: I’ve been doing betting content for so long that sometimes weird references stick. This Houston lineup is what I half-jokingly refer to as a horse drawing. I know, I know—Johnny, what in the world are you talking about? The first thing I think of when looking at this Astro lineup from top to bottom is that famous meme. A horse beautifully drawn at first, complete with detailed shading and muscle striations, that eventually looks like my six-year-old son finished it after riding the Tilt-A-Whirl at Six Flags.

Houston inexplicably sent two of the franchise’s faces packing this offseason. I’m sorry, but trying to replace bona fide superstars in Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman with Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker isn’t a lateral move—it’s a clear step in the wrong direction. Both are nice pieces and above replacement level; don’t get me wrong. I especially like pairing Paredes’ pull-side power (20.1% Pulled FBLD) with the Crawford Boxes in Daikin Park—but to think HOU made an even 2v2 swap is crazy talk.

The first part of the horse should be fine, and I say should, not will because we can’t ignore the player age curve. Half of the Astros' top four hitters are over the age of 34. Not to mention the veteran Altuve intending to play left field, an order of magnitude more conducive to injuries than playing second base. Mix in Yordan’s well-documented chronic knee issues—believe it or not he played the outfield 54 times last year—and you can see how this goes sideways in a hurry.

Even if Jeremy Peña and Yainer Diaz continue a progressive trajectory, there are too many holes in the back of the lineup to get me excited for a six-month marathon. 

Projected Opening Day Rotation (⭐/5):

1. Framber Valdez, LHP:⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

2. Hunter Brown, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

3. Ronel Blanco, RHP:⭐⭐⭐

4. Spencer Arrighetti, RHP:⭐⭐⭐

5. Hayden Wesneski, RHP:⭐⭐

Starting Pitching Overview: Finally time to say something nice about the ‘Stros, right? While pitching has been a strong suit in Space City for years, I can’t believe they jettisoned an established frontline starter in Yusei Kikuchi for another reclamation project in Hayden Wesneski. 

Now, I don’t hand out those stars above lightly, so I do believe this staff’s pretty well-stocked one through five. That said, what you see is what you get after losing Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier, and J.P. France to arm surgeries. No team should be banking on five SPs to make +30 starts, so let’s just say I’d feel more comfortable about their long-term outlook with Wesneski as the SP6.

That said, the Astros’ recent claim to fame has been their ability to tweak pitchers via the R&D department and get big-time untapped production—so maybe Wesneski’s a household name next season. Who knows?

Houston’s success will be directly tied to that same organizational trait and how it applies going forward to Hunter Brown and Spencer Arrighetti. The pair of righty hurlers both looked fantastic in the second half of 2024, combining for a ~2.75 ERA and ~1.16 WHIP. There’s surely cause for some encouragement, but in order to eclipse their current 87.5 (-110) win total, it’s going to take further improvements on the bump to compensate for the incoming drop on offense.

⚾🔱MLB Team Preview—Seattle Mariners🔱⚾

After three straight +88-win seasons, Seattle closed out 2024 at 85-77, just one game out of the final Wild Card. And the way things were going for Kansas City in the second half (37-42), it felt like the M’s could’ve leapfrogged them, if only the season were a few days longer. 

Whether they’ll admit it or not, you know the rest of the AL spent the back half of September on the edge of their collective seat, terrified Seattle might sneak its way into the postseason. Why? Power pitching wins championships.

I know I’m jaded as a pitching-phile (if that’s a real thing), but this isn’t just the best rotation in the game today—it’s the best in a decade and perhaps of the century, with an argument against the vaunted Braves of the late 1990s for best in my lifetime.

Yes, they’re that good …

Projected Opening Day Lineup w/BAT X Projections: (BA / R / RBI / HR / SB)

1. Victor Robles, RF: .242 / 63 / 39 / 11 / 30

2. Julio Rodri­guez, CF: .274 / 90 / 84 / 27 / 29

3. Cal Raleigh, C: .213 / 63 / 81 / 28 / 2

4. Randy Arozarena, LF: .235 / 82 / 68 / 22 / 26

5. Luke Raley, 1B: .221 / 54 / 54 / 18 / 11

6. Mitch Haniger, DH: .212 / 32 / 38 / 11 / 0

7. J.P. Crawford, SS: .234 / 58 / 54 / 12 / 3

8. Jorge Polanco, 3B: .221 / 49 / 55 / 15 / 4

9. Dylan Moore, 2B: .206 / 52 / 38 / 13 / 24

Hitting Overview: It’s not something you expect when describing the offense of an 85-win team, but Seattle stunk to high heaven last year. And it’s not hyperbole—the M’s finished 29th in team batting average at .224 (in front of only the historically terrible White Sox) and dead last in strikeout rate (26.8% K). Sheesh. 

The midseason acquisition of post-post-post-hype sleeper Victor Robles worked out perfectly—the M’s desperately needed an on-base asset with a willingness to steal bases who doesn’t strike out. That said, Robles achieved his stellar .393 on-base percentage by way of a ridiculous .388 BABIP (batting average on balls in play), something almost guaranteed to regress. 

Seattle also brought Randy “The Macho Man” Arozarena into the mix midseason to add some of that power/speed combo we all love so much—except he’s another low-BA-/high-strikeout guy. I guess the Mariners have a very particular type on offense, just not the one I’d associate myself with as a general manager. Starting the season with just a single player projected to hit over .245 says it all. They’re going to enter 2025 once again with major lineup holes and platoon concerns, barring any last-minute additions. 

Individual game under bettors should be licking their chops …

Projected Opening Day Rotation (⭐/5):

1. George Kirby, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

2. Luis Castillo, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

3. Logan Gilbert, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

4. Bryce Miller, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

5. Bryan Woo, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Pitching Overview: No lefties? No problem … Seattle’s world famous for its coffee, but maybe we need to start exporting the water as well. Pitching coach Steve Woodworth deserves a statue in the PNW.

As a granular pitching analyst, this rotation is what dreams are made of. How many teams could realistically slot Castillo as their No. 2, Gilbert as their No. 3, or even Miller as their No. 4? The answer is not many, if any.

Not a single Mariner SP posted an ERA over 3.65, WHIP over 1.17, SIERA over 3.80, walk rate over 6.5%, K-BB under 18%, ball rate over 35%, or xwOBA north of .305. Wow.

As far as inputs go, they’re … perfect?

I don’t think I can wax poetic enough on this staff. That said, they’ll be asked once again to shoulder the brunt of the Mariners’ load after leading MLB by a country mile in innings pitched, earned run average, quality starts, WHIP, and strikeout-minus-walk rate.

While fully expecting those to repeat (if not expand), it’s difficult to forecast a huge step forward in wins when the offense is so flawed. Seattle needs to complement its pitching with better plate approaches, and fast. If this season ends without a playoff berth—listed at (-110) on both sides—we’ll know exactly who to blame.

🔮 Look Into My Crystal Ball: Quick Hit Futures Bets 🔮

Please note the reduced risk on future plays before anything else. If you’re wondering why these wagers are all fractional, it’s not just because I’m responsible, care about you, or happen to be very good at what I do. 

It’s important whenever open-ended betting to always keep bankroll management in mind. Speaking from experience, it’s way too easy to wind up with a season-long ticket carrying more risk exposure than we’re comfortable with. Please bet responsibly, it’s the key to sustainability—you can’t make any money if your account is at $0.

THE BET: Houston Astros To Miss The Playoffs (+145) On DraftKings, Risk 0.50u

I already laid out my best case against the Astros above—they’re degrading on both sides of the ball while also getting older where it matters the most. The public is generally slow to adjust good team bias, automatically making the Astros a favorite to win the AL West. 

The thing is, Houston barely squeaked in last year, and the division is improved across the board. Even the Athletics and Angels project to win more games in 2025—and those have to come from somewhere. The Astros finished eight games over .500 against the two bottom-feeders alone—regress those a touch to go with a vastly improved Rangers’ squad, and at a 42% implied probability, I like our chances to break their postseason streak.

Hope you enjoyed today’s Betting Life newsletter! Please feel free to contact me on X @JohnLaghezza with any questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you!

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