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⛱ It's Arnold Palmer SZN
Top options at Bay Hill ...
I’m sure he has lots of hobbies, Perry. The man’s a drink mogul.
In today’s Betting Life newsletter, presented by Underdog:
NBA Betting: Can the Wizards snap their 15-game losing streak?
NFL Free Agency: It’s a great year to need RB.
Arnold Palmer Best Bets: A signature win for Tommy Fleetwood?
It’s 3/6. Take it away, Matt LaMarca …
The NBA goes straight from a nine-game slate on Tuesday into an eight-game slate on Wednesday. That means there are going to be plenty of teams on back-to-backs, so be sure to keep a close eye on the injury report.
We’re also nearing the time of year when teams start tanking looking to the future. The three teams with the worst records will have the maximum number of opportunities in the lottery, and even in a weak class that’s plenty of incentive to lose games.
The Pistons and Wizards are pretty firmly locked into the top two spots at the moment, but only five games separate the Spurs, Blazers, and Hornets for the coveted No. 3 spot. It’s something to keep in the back of your mind as we approach the final 20 games of the year.
Speaking of the Wizards, they headline my best bets for Wednesday’s slate.
The Magic have been rolling recently, winning 12 of their past 15 games. They’re eighth in Net Rating over that time frame, outscoring opponents by an average of +6.1 points per 100 possessions. Their recent hot streak has moved them to 10 games over .500 for the season and puts them in a tie with the Knicks for fourth place in the Eastern Conference.
Still, it’s fair to be skeptical of Orlando. Most of their recent wins have come against subpar competition. Five of their past 12 wins have come against the Pistons and Spurs — two of the worst teams in basketball — while their most recent win came against a depleted Hornets squad.
The Wizards don’t represent a huge step up in competition, but they do have a few things working for them. For starters, the Magic are on the second leg of a back-to-back, which is a situation they’ve struggled with this season. They’re a respectable 6-6 ATS, but their average margin of victory in those contests is -8.7 points per game. That’s the fifth-worst mark in the league.
The Magic also might be without Jonathan Isaac and Gary Harris for this contest. Neither player typically carries a huge workload, but Isaac was instrumental in their win over the Hornets on Tuesday, and Harris has shot 51.3% from 3-point range since returning from injury in early February. The Wizards are on a 15-game losing streak, but it wouldn’t shock me if this is the spot where they finally get back in the win column.
Play To: Over 3.5 (+100)
Paydirt DFS Simulations: Over 3.5 in 72.0%
The Clippers are a star-laden team, so Mann doesn’t typically get much attention. He’s played big minutes at times this year when Paul George or Kawhi Leonard isn’t available, but the team is at full strength on the wing currently. Mann is still starting, but he’s played 22 minutes or less in three straight games.
Still, Mann’s diminished role doesn’t mean he can’t get to four rebounds vs. the Rockets. He went for four rebounds two games ago vs. the Timberwolves, and that was a significantly tougher matchup. The Timberwolves are seventh in team rebound rate, while the Rockets are 13th. Houston also plays at a faster pace, resulting in more rebound opportunities.
I don’t want to go overboard with players who are projected for less than 20 minutes, but this prop offers value at anything better than even money. The Paydirt sims have Mann going over 3.5 rebounds in 72% of their simulations, so +124 is an excellent price to target.
⚾ Spring Training is Off and Running!
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Good luck, and start drafting on Underdog Fantasy!
🔥Still need more bets? Of course you do. Our NBA bet tracker can help (+11.23 units on the season).
🏷 Michael Pittman follows in the footsteps of … Pat McAfee? I’m sure he’d like to do that off the field as well.
🤠 There’s a new sheriff in town. A new QB has emerged as the frontrunner to land in Atlanta.
💰 The NFL free agent class is loaded at RB. But will any of them get paid?
🫎 The craziest race in the world. Imagine getting DQ’d for not field-dressing a Moose.
🎲 Are you feeling lucky, punk? You can now bet on Victor Wembanyama to do something only four NBA players have previously accomplished.
💰 A +2000 moneyline winner hit on a last-second dunk. This is what dreams are made of.
⛳ LIV and let die. Joaquin Niemann is on a tear and it may have some ripple effects across the golf universe.
✅ Good teams win, great teams cover. The Bulls managed to do both thanks to a monster fourth quarter from DeMar DeRozan.
The PGA TOUR is back in action on Thursday as we shift focus to the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Resident Golf degenerate Geoff Ulrich has you covered with all the bets you need below.
Play to: +2800
International players like Tyrrell Hatton, Francesco Molinari, and Marc Leishman have all won this event over the past eight seasons, and last year’s surprise winner, Kurt Kitayama, was also a DP World Tour regular at one point. For Hatton and Kitayama, their win at Bay Hill also marked their first on the PGA TOUR, and while Leishman’s was technically his second it was his first win against an elite field.
A win this week for Fleetwood would be of similar significance. He’s grabbed seven victories on the DP World Tour but has yet to close out a tournament of any sort on the PGA. Florida has been a moneymaker for him in the past, however, and he’s now landed top-five finishes at every major Florida venue (PGA National, TPC Sawgrass, Copperhead, and Bay Hill) on the circuit.
His recent form may not jump off the page, but he beat a Rory McIlroy-led field in Dubai on the DP World Tour to start his season and followed that up two weeks ago with a solid top-10 at Riviera, where he looked extremely confident with his putter (+4.0 strokes gained). With the Tour now in his preferred Florida swing, and several of the top names struggling to find their top gear, I like taking a shot with the perennial bridesmaid once again at an event that has produced an overabundance of international winners over the past 20 years.
+900 to finish Top Five
+4000 each-way 1/5 Top Eight (Bet365)
Scott’s been a relatively slow starter for much of his career, but this season, the Aussie has taken a slightly different approach. The 2013 Masters winner has hit the ground running, posting three straight top-20 finishes. That includes a T8 at the WM Phoenix Open, where he gained 6.5 strokes on approach for the week.
Scott’s never won at Bay Hill but likely should have in 2014 when he finished T3 and had the lead early in the final round on Sunday. However, three of his career wins have come in Florida, and his penchant for playing on Bermuda shines through in his recent putting splits: He’s No. 7 in strokes gained putting on that surface over the past 24 rounds.
With tons of experience at this venue — and currently showcasing some great late-career form — Scott‘s +5500 outright odds look more than generous enough to play this week. He’s also someone I’d not hesitate to play as an each-way or top-10 bet given his history in Florida and the uptick we’ve seen in his ball-striking to start the year.
Bezuidenhout missed the cut last week but not before he posted one of the most entertaining rounds of the season. Going off early in round two, the South African vaulted himself within a shot of the lead — going five-under par over his first 10 holes — before succumbing to some watery graves, which led to multiple double-bogies and an early exit from the event.
The missed cut isn’t a concern as he has been solid in 2024 (outside of last week), landing a runner-up finish at the American Express and three other top-30 finishes. He’s also played well around Bay Hill, with three top-20 finishes in four career starts. At +600, he makes sense as a longshot to target in the placement odds around a track where he’s found lots of success in prior visits.
These three-way odds include the tie, but I like this bet enough to take Hovland at better odds in this market and risk the loss if they chop.
From a matchup perspective, Hovland simply offers us better upside (and win equity) and carries a far more consistent Florida record. While Schauffele is coming off a solid Genesis, he’s played this event just twice in his career (T24 - 2020, T39 - 2023) and doesn’t have the same connection to this event as Hovland, who played here as an amateur and hasn’t missed the cut in his past five attempts.
