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Rams (4-5) at Patriots (3-7): On the verge of breaking out, the Rams returned healthy stars amidst three straight wins off their Week 6 bye. Things couldn’t be looking brighter. However, their inability to move the chains via the ground game continually haunted them again versus Miami. The stats don’t lie—3.8 yards/carry and only 2 (!) +20-yard rushes through 10 games is unacceptable. Watch if Sean McVay doubles down to correct course against a beatable Patriots team. One, however, that’s at least the best of the worst with Drake Maye under center. LEAN: LAR -4.5 (-110)

Raiders (2-7) at Dolphins (3-6): Credit where it’s due, Miami beat a tough Rams squad last week—but frankly, I’m still seriously irked by the Fins. Where are the fireworks? Or the spacing? Somehow, someway, the Dolphins have failed to reach 28 points in any game this season. What?!? Mike McDaniel better get in that bag and will his squad to 4 touchdowns. The Raiders are in full tailspin, allowing 30+ points in 44% of games this year. The answering of any offseason prayer must begin Sunday.  LEAN: MIA -6.5 (-122)

Packers (6-3) at Bears (4-5): One of only six teams boasting positive marks in EPA on both sides of the ball, Green Bay rolls into the Bear cave Sunday looking to get back in the win column. Given the 5-point line, Vegas books seem to give the Windy City shakeup more credence than I do. Having watched this Bears team operate (or fail to) all season, there’s a massive disconnect between playcalling and offensive identity. Caleb Williams is going to be fine down the road, but we bet one-game samples. Chicago failed to sniff the end zone once in three games, so call me Missouri—he’s gotta show me first. Especially curious to see if the Pack finally gets aggressive with blitzes to keep Williams off schedule.  LEAN: GB -4.5 (-117)

Jaguars (2-8) at Lions (8-1): Terror. The one word to come to mind for my locked-in Week 11 Survivor pick. You won’t find a more spreadsheet-based, statistically sound “sure-thing” win than the Lions this season. Dan Campbell’s home in the Den. Mac Jones under center for Jacksonville in a two-touchdown spread. What on earth could possibly go wrong? Kidding aside, this shouldn’t even be close if Trevor Lawrence were good to go. LEAN: DET -12.5 (-130)

Browns (2-7) at Saints (3-7): Here they come, back in town … it’s the greatest show around … when Jameis Winston’s circus is coming to town. Returning from the most Jameis Winston two-game stretch in history (334-3-0; 235-1-3), it’s anybody's guess where the wheel stops spinning Sunday. Even the Browns’ defense, one we thought could be an anchor this year, has played erratically. And the injuries that have piled up in New Orleans? Fuhgeddaboudit. I learned my lesson betting Mason Tipton props. Who? Precisely. Neither team cares about anything more than escaping healthy (and perhaps a premium draft pick). If not for betting, props, fantasy, DFS, and the entire gambling stratosphere, you couldn’t prove to me this game actually happened. LEAN: CLE ML (-130)

Vikings (7-2) at Titans (2-7): Classic get-right spot for the Purple People Eaters in Tennessee on Sunday. Struggling to turn the offensive engine over without star OT Christian Darrisaw, Minnesota’s going to keep riding the struggle bus if bad Sam Darnold keeps showing up. That’s 5 INTs in two games versus IND + JAX; a couple of the very worst secondaries in the NFL. TEN must correct course. On the flip side, make no mistake, this Titans defense can ball—it’s always been a question of QB play. Speaking of which, Will Levis just completed his first mistake-free game in recent memory. Is it a sign of things to come? I have my doubts with Brian Flores on deck—but you can bet they’ll be playing hard, hair on fire. LEAN: MIN/TEN u39.5 (-110)

This six-pack of games really turned out to be the PBR of Natty Ices, yuck (if you know, you know). I’ll be back Sunday morning to pick up the spare with the back half of the slate and a couple more +EV player props.

Make sure to check out our Week 11 NFL Odds Page. You can also use our NFL Game Betting Model to identify the biggest edges on game totals, spreads, and moneylines!