Approaching the MLB Playoffs

Plus a WR Prop to Target ...

September 27, 2024

Sept. 27, 2024
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Approaching the MLB Playoffs: Like so many things in life, the baseball season happens slowly and then all at once. That one weird bounce teams shrugged off in mid-May costing them a game suddenly feels like a pretty big deal to bubble squads like the Twins, Mets, or Braves.

John Laghezza

Man, I just love the parity down the stretch and the early playoff games it creates. Who would’ve guessed the schedule-maker’s genius would be revealed through a late-September series between the Braves and Royals? The culmination of several thousand at-bats and a sheer mountain of work by a collective to make the playoffs—determined in just a few dozen plate appearances.

I get asked all the time about how to approach handicapping or modeling the postseason and let me tell you, it’s not for the faint of heart. One tip I do have in terms of offense that’s worth asserting is to step back and reset to base skill levels. Lots of touts are guilty of weighing recent stats maybe a little more heavily than they should in-season. The last seven days, or last four weeks, the second half, the month of September, or whatever else you can concoct should only be a small part of the tapestry. 

It’s been widely tested and disproven—no recent split is predictive of playoff success. 

Pitching takes such a nuanced hand that it’s difficult to even describe the process briefly. It’s not to say I’m more willing to use more recent stats, it’s just that any minor change in velocity, release point, pitch mix, or mechanics can wildly alter a player’s trajectory. Check out today’s MLB prop below and my notes on Sean Manaea to see what I mean about tying tangible changes to results (in the business, they call that a tease … I think).

What else is in today’s newsletter?

  • The New York Prop Exchange

  • Five And Dive

NFL BETTING

The New York Prop Exchange🏈🏛️—I Can Buy Myself Flowers

There’s been no shortage of great matchups during this young season and Sunday’s no different … I really do love the NFL. Josh Allen and the undefeated Bills travel to B-More where Lamar Jackson and the Ravens will be waiting, looking to get a win streak started after opening 2024 with two straight losses.

Bobby Babich doesn’t care about your fantasy team or prop bets—he has Buffalo’s defense schemed up to lean into the two-high preventive craze sweeping the nation. Buffalo runs the second-most two-high shells, resulting in top-10 ranks in opposer passer rating, passing yards/game, yards/completion, and 20-plus-yard completions. 

So why go after this vaunted Bills’ defensive unit? That same stylistic approach allows for completions underneath—Buffalo’s allowed the fifth most passes this year, including more than 11 per game to the slot. It’s as if they’re going to straight up let you catch it underneath and then just swarm to the ball.

Enter Zay Flowers, Baltimore’s safety blanket who’s gone over 5 catches twice this season and 7 times in his last 10 regular-season contests.

The sophomore wideout should see plenty of looks, running routes on 96% of dropbacks and earning more than 87% of the Ravens’ slot targets this season. The sophomore standout is also known to occupy that same vulnerable real estate within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage (below).

Lamar has preferred throwing short so far this season anyway—he’s bottom-10 in air yards/attempt and top-10 in slot-target rate. Expect quick shots over the middle early and often.

THE BET: Zay Flowers Over 4.5 Receptions (-125) BetMGM

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MLB BETTING

Five and Dive ⚾️💣—Let’s Go, Mets Go!

You can count the remaining regular-season games on one hand as we reach the nitty-gritty for the Metropolitans. New York is in a must-win spot on the road as it lands in Beer-town to face a Brewers team locked into the 3-seed getting themselves set up for the playoffs.

The Metsies send Sean Manaea to the hill, who’s been flat-out incredible since making an unusual pitch-mix change in late July. Usually, it’s more sliders and fewer sinkers responsible for a breakout—not the opposite.

Anyway, if the proof’s in the pudding, then this stuff tastes delicious. Without exaggeration, Manaea has been as good as anyone in 11 GS (6W-1L) down the stretch: 72 IP, 2.63 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 24.4% K-BB, .497 OPS, 40% Groundball, 1.0 HR/9, .252 xwOBA. Nice.

He’s up against Frankie Montas, who I guess has been around average (4.56 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) since getting to Milwaukee, though he has allowed at least 3 ER in 7 of 10 GS since the move. Montas is likely just getting some work in to stay on schedule, he has zero props listed other than strikeouts (reminds me of our building block re: using sportsbooks given info for enlightenment).

And the Mets’ offense looks great now, they’re top-5 in OPS and xwOBA across 500 team plate appearances. My MLBMA model’s got NYM clear of MIL by three-quarters of a run through five for a (-144) fair line expectation—so you know I jumped on this when I saw it posted at (-125).

THE BET: Mets First 5 ML (-125) DraftKings Sportsbook

AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

👀 The Week 5 College Football Pregame Show, featuring Thor Nystrom, Coach Gene Clemons, and Eric Froton, kicks off Saturday at 10 a.m. ET.

🏈 When they find paydirt, you find a payday. Anytime TD bets for Week 4.

💰 There’s a mispriced QB in the prop market … and Freedman breaks it down.

🥊 Action returns to the octagon with UFC Paris on Saturday. Best bets for the card.

 

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