Anthony Richardson. Lion Tamer?

An early look at Colts-Lions and more Week 12 games ...

November 19, 2024

Nov. 19, 2024

Your Early Week 12 Primer: Heading into Week 12 we have some injuries and key news to keep track of.

I’m going to give you my quick, GeoffsNotes (like CliffsNotes, but mine) on a few of these situations and how I might be looking to play them, or profit from a betting perspective.

Don’t forget, we put all our early-week bets into our FREE NFL Bet Tracker so make sure to check that out if you’re interested in getting in on any early lines before they move.

New York Giants (+5.0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Daniel Jones (benched); Mike Evans (questionable)

The Giants demoted Jones to third-string and named Tommy DeVito the starter. Evans also returned to practice for the Buccaneers, although no word has been given on his status for Week 12 yet.

Verdict: I don’t know that I need or want to bet the Giants at +5.0, but if the line gets to 6.0 I might. The Buccaneers are dead last in Success Rate vs. the pass, so DeVito alt lines (along with gabagool) will be on the prop menu when they are released.

Green Bay Packers (-2.0) vs. San Francisco 49ers: Nick Bosa (oblique, hip—questionable); George Kittle (hamstring—questionable); Jaire Alexander (knee—questionable)

The 49ers have had to deal with injuries to key players all season, and with Bosa leaving last week’s game early, it looks like they may be without him in this do-or-die Week 12 matchup with Green Bay.

Verdict: I already bet Green Bay on the moneyline and put it in our Free NFL Bet Tracker on Sunday. If the Packers get back Alexander, who sounds likely to play, the spread may close at 3.0.

Kansas City Chiefs (+11.5) at Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young (named starter); Jonathon Brooks (likely to play); Isiah Pacheco (questionable)

The Panthers announced Bryce Young will start Week 12 vs. the Chiefs and that rookie RB Jonathon Brooks is likely to play. The Chiefs have Isiah Pacheco set to return from IR this week, but no word yet on whether he’ll play in this game.

Verdict: Mahomes and the Chiefs are 6-2-1 off a loss since 2022. This spread has already risen from 10.0 to 11.0 in spots and will likely rise throughout the week. If you want the Chiefs, grab them now.

Don’t forget, we also have weekly Player Projections and a Prop Finder Tool, to help you navigate all of this injury madness and gain an edge in Week 12.

Both are available (along with a host of other great tools) with a FantasyLife+ subscription.

What else is in today’s newsletter?

  • Early Week NFL Bet: Can Anthony Richardson tame the Lions?

  • NHL Prop Drop: The Wild’s big line is in a smash spot tonight

NFL Betting

Week 12 NFL—The Colts can keep pace

Entering Week 12 the top four against-the-spread records belong to the following four teams:

  1. Steelers 8-2

  2. Lions 8-2

  3. Colts 8-3

  4. Broncos 8-3

Of the four, the Colts are the only team with an overall losing record (5 wins, 6 losses) but have lost only one game by more than 8 points all season (a 30-20 loss to the 9-2 Bills in Week 10). Interestingly enough, three of the Colts’ six losses also came in the four games where Joe Flacco was the starting QB—with Flacco also going 2-2 ATS in those four games.

That means that in games where Anthony Richardson has been the starter this season, the Colts have gone 6-1 ATS, with their only failed cover coming in Week 2 on the road against Green Bay. At home, Richardson is a perfect 4-0 ATS in games he’s started this season.

Can Richardson keep it rolling?

In case you lost power last week (or just wanted to avoid watching the Jets again), Richardson returned as the starter in Week 11—after a two-week benching—and promptly delivered his most complete game as a pro.

Richardson wasn’t just efficient in the passing game either, where he averaged 9.06 yards per attempt and completed 66% of his passes, a season-high. He was an absolute bully in the run game, especially around the goal line where he made Jets’ defenders look like grade schoolers on both of his TD jaunts.

With Jonathan Taylor also there to keep teams honest, the Colts’ offense should continue terrorizing opposing defenses in the red zone for the rest of the season and have a great chance at improving on their current 21.5 ppg (19th in the league) average.

Will any of this matter against the Lions?

The Lions are the class of the league right now. On top of being 8-2 ATS and 9-1 overall, they’re now the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl at most sportsbooks, and as low as +325 to win it all.

That doesn’t mean this week isn’t a bit of a trouble spot for them. They’re on the road and lost linebacker Alex Anzalone for 6-8 weeks with a broken arm against Jacksonville. It’s a big injury, as Anzalone was in the midst of another solid season and was second on the team with 40 tackles

On the flip side, the Colts have been getting healthier on defense. DL DeForest Buckner’s return a few weeks ago has freed up the rest of the defense, which has produced multiple sacks in four straight games—including 3 last week. While they allow yards, the Colts have also been very opportunistic and enter Week 12 ranked seventh in turnovers with 17.

The Bet: Colts +8.0 (-110; BetMGM)

After Detroit dropped 52 against Jacksonville, we’ve seen a steady diet of Lions money come in. Still, the spread hasn’t moved much from its +7.5 opening line, with the odd +8.0 (-110) popping up here and there on Monday.

With the Lions down another key defensive piece and being a very popular road favorite this week, I’m happy to take that extra 0.5 and roll with Richardson in Week 12.

Even if the Colts can’t stop Detroit from scoring, the renewed Colts offense going up against this now-weakened Lions defense should have a great shot at keeping things close enough to bag us a cover.

AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

👎 MNF’s first TD scorer was Nico Collins … but it was actually Joe Mixon. Collins' first TD bettors, avert your eyes!

🏈 Get your early Week 13 MACtion Bets on with Thor Nystrom’s preview. Kent State? In this economy!?

😓 Jerryworld is not a fun place right meow for the Cowboys. Maybe there is something to this glaring-light issue? 

NHL Best Bets

NHL Prop Drop—Expect Eriksson Ek to deliver

The Minnesota Wild have been dealing with some injuries of late, but are expected to have their first-line center Joel Eriksson Ek back in the lineup tonight when they take on the St. Louis Blues at 8 p.m. ET. The better news for Minnesota fans and bettors is that with Eriksson Ek returning, the Wild are also expected to reunite him with wingers Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy, to form a top trio that was uber-productive for them last season.

Via Moneypuck, in 2023-24, when on the ice together at even strength they ranked 7th in expected goals per 60 minutes (3.63) and 6th in actual goals per 60 minutes (4.64).

Tonight they take on the Blues, who have allowed the fourth-most quality scoring chances against this season and sixth-most high-danger chances.

The Bets:

  • Joel Eriksson Ek over 0.5 points (-125; bet365)

  • SGP: Joel Eriksson Ek o0.5 assists + Wild -1.5 (+425; bet365)

The Wild are in a good spot tomorrow, and I love the fact they are reuniting a line that kickstarted them last season after the All-Star break. We could play any number of variations of bets on that first line (anytime goal, multiple points, etc.), but the most obvious to me is to take Eriksson Ek to get on the stat sheet with a point.

The over on 0.5 points for Eriksson Ek is still sitting at -125 on bet365, while the overs on Kaprizov and Boldy are at -450 and -210. Even with Eriksson Ek coming in off an injury that’s too big a gap given the three are likely to play most of the game together.

If you want more upside, I also don’t mind looking into some alternative markets like assists for Eriksson Ek. He averaged 0.44 assists per game last season but his current odds to land one assist tomorrow sit at around 35% implied odds, or +185 (bet365).

Pairing that with either a goal by Boldy or Kaprizov, and/or the Wild puck line, will get you well into the +400 range on an SGP, and makes for a good way to get exposure to the upside of this line tomorrow.

Looking for more NHL action this season? Check out our free NHL Futures Betting Odds below.

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