Another TNF Thriller?

Commanders-Eagles battle for first place in NFC East

November 14, 2024

Nov. 14, 2024
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Thursday Night Preview, Commanders (7-3) at Eagles (7-2): Quick, call the police. Are we actually getting treated to back-to-back watchable Thursday Night Football games?

Not sure when TNF became the hip place to be, but I can dig it. Two seven-win division rivals with deep postseason aspirations duking it out on the national stage? Let’s do this.

John Laghezza

Kills me to even consider writing anything negative about Washington’s rookie phenom Jayden Daniels. This kid’s a revelation. A great leader, he’s modest and poised. On the field, it’s maturity exemplified. Patience, accuracy, production, and a clear will to win—all without taking sacks or turning the ball over. Where do I sign up?

With my Daniels opus off my chest, let’s get out the microscope for a bit. Despite some ups and downs, Washington’s easily the NFL’s most efficient offense (which again is borderline absurd considering its engine is a first-year player). The Commanders straight-up lead the league in average drive distance (40.1), time of possession per drive (3:10), first downs per drive (2.3), and scoring drive success rate (58.3%). Kliff Kingsbury’s 2024 offense revolves around Daniels’ ball skills, heavily predicated on the ground attack, specifically the RPO. 

Effective as that style can be with the right personnel at times acting as a disruptor, when defenders stayed home, it sent the WAS aerial attack into a tailspin. Look no further than Pittsburgh’s strategy last week, which replicated Brian Daboll’s attack plan just a week prior. Mike Tomlin aggressively doubled PIT’s blitz rate to disallow the necessary transfer time for ball fakes. The result? Two straight weeks under 210 passing yards. Expect the Eagles, another top-flight defense, to be in the lab as we speak cooking up their own version of Daniels repellent. That said, Washington has been held under 20 points once all season, averaging an astronomical 29 points/game through 10 weeks. Unstoppable force, meet immovable object.

On the flip side, it feels like I’ve done nothing but sing the Eagles’ praises since their Week 5 bye. And why wouldn’t I? Undefeated in five straight since, Philly’s second in average point margin (16.4) and first in net yard differential (180) during that span. The combination of Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley lurking in the backfield every single down demands constant attention, inevitably creating a matchup concern somewhere in the secondary. Coordinators can choose their fate. Isolate A.J. Brown in press-man coverage to inspire deep shots outside, or drop back into soft coverage and allow DeVonta Smith to operate freely underneath. Philadelphia is hitting on every cylinder in all phases right now. It’s going to be hard fought, but I think PHI outlasts tonight with its ability to win different ways. LEAN: PHI ML + u49

No one says it better than Ian …

You can use our NFL Game Betting Model to identify the biggest edges on game totals, spreads, and moneylines!

What else is in today’s newsletter?

  • Running Against The Wind—Saquon And Gone

  • The New York Prop Exchange—Bobbin’ For Tackles

  • Sharp Hunter: Going against the Sharps?

TNF BETTING

Running Against The Wind🏃🏽‍♂️🏈 —Saquon And Gone

Responsibility for Washington’s surprising record also lies in the hands of the defense. No denying first-time defensive coordinator Joe Whitt has done an excellent job for the Commanders, especially compared to last year’s dumpster fire. Look at this past month. No squinting required to see a top-5 defense in terms of critical scoring, yardage, and pressure metrics. That said, we’re talking about the Panthers, Bears, Giants, and Steelers—not exactly the most prolific stretch. 

So why is my demeanor so downtrodden toward WAS? The Commanders do an excellent job overall defending the pass because the interior is so effective at creating QB pressure. The LB combo of Bobby Wagner, Frankie Luvu, and Dante Fowler deserve recognition for the sheer amount of havoc they create. Respect for a job well done. However, it’s Washington’s offense clearing the runway here. Those negative game scripts are precisely what allows WAS to deploy nearly exclusive 5-DB schematics without much consequence. 

But what happens when the Commanders were actually forced to defend the run this season? Well, Washington’s advanced underpinning stuff isn’t pretty…

  • -0.02 Defensive EPA/Rush: 27th

  • 42.4% Rush Success Rate Allowed: 26th

  • 142.7 Rushing Yards Per Game: 28th

  • 4.9 Yards Per Rush: T-30th

  • 1.76 Yards Before Contact Per Rush: 27th

  • 10.2% Explosive Rush Rate Allowed: 27th

Inability to stop ground attacks lengthens drives, which tires defenses. To me, Washington’s bottom-5 status in both average drive distance and time of possession per drive is clearly reflected here. Can you start seeing where I’m going with this?

Saquon Barkley’s in the middle of a fantastic year for PHI. 

His ranks among all RBs with 100+ carries speak for themselves:

  • 991 Rushing Yards: 2nd

  • 5.8 Yards Per Carry: 2nd

  • 110.1 Rushing Yards Per Game: 2nd

  • 1.62 Yards Over Expectation Per Carry: 2nd

  • 5 100+ Rushing Yard Games: T-1st

  • 8 +20-Yard Carries: 2nd

Expect a heavy dose of Saquon early, often, and throughout in a perfect BTFD situation for rush yards (image above).

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AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

👀 Thor Nystrom and Eric Froton bring you the Week 12 College Football Best Bets, Player Props, and more.

💪 Jake Trowbridge and Geoff Ulrich share some laughs while dealing solid betting and fantasy advice in their new show called The Flex.

🦅 A troubling trend for the Eagles going into TNF.

🔮 King James breaking down Eagles-Commanders. Oh yeah, he’s pretty good at his day job … three straight triple-doubles.

TNF BETTING

The New York Prop Exchange🏈🏛️—Bobbin’ For Tackles

Variety’s the spice of life, right? Let’s mix it up a little. I couldn’t help but draw inspiration from my boy Ryan Noonan from 4for4Bets with a little tackle prop action. He and Conner Allen were kind enough to platform my unique brand of insanity on their podcast yesterday. Total blast, you should check it out.

Anyway, I’m always open to new ideas and potentially softer markets. Something we talked about on the show is a bettor’s balance between being a progenitor but also a consumer, all while remaining original. Do not be shy to outsource work to researched specialists with track records for success.

I mentioned the Washington defense a few times, particularly how they’ll have their hands full with a high play volume from PHI. Enter nine-time Pro Bowler and three-time tackle leader, veteran LB Bobby Wagner. Perhaps a little long in the tooth and certainly a half-step slower than his prime, he still gets it done—Wagner’s outpacing all other WAS defenders by +35% tackles on the season. That stopping presence is especially felt against the run (image below), where he’ll be relied upon to keep Saquon Barkley at bay.

So why is Wagner’s tackle prop set at 3.5, even though he’s not on the injury report and has yet to post fewer than 6 tackles in any of the 10 games played? I don’t know, and frankly, it’s making me a little nervous. 

But scared money don’t make money …

SHARP HUNTER

Where Are The Sharps Leaning For TNF?

Source: Sharp Hunter

The NFL schedule makers have gifted us with another solid Thursday night game to kick off Week 11. 

The 7-2 Eagles host the 7-3 Commanders in an NFC East game with major playoff implications. 

The home-team Eagles are a 3.5-point favorite in a game with a consensus total of 48.5. 

At Sharp Hunter, we keep track of bets from hundreds of sharp bettors across the industry. Not just in the NFL, but College Football, College Basketball, and the NBA, too. 

On Thursday morning, we’re showing a One-Bag Sharp Score on the Commanders +3.5.

I’ve been betting with the Sharp Hunter Sharps recently, but not in this spot. I’ll be looking to back the Eagles. 

And let’s start with the Eagles. After a slow start on defense, they have rounded into form and find themselves as the No. 7-ranked DVOA unit in the league. They’re getting better every week and it's showing up in the metrics. 

On the offensive side of the ball, A.J. Brown has been the X-factor for the Eagles. They’re 6-0 in the six games he’s played this season and averaging over 30 points per game in those six. 

Brown and the Philadelphia offense get to face the DVOA No. 25 defense of the Commanders—a unit that will be better when trade acquisition Marshon Lattimore finally suits up, but he’s out Thursday. 

One of the reasons I wanted to bet the Steelers this past weekend against these Commanders is strength of schedule—they have faced the fifth-easiest schedule in the entire league. They’ve been a good story, but they’ve beaten the Giants (twice), Bears, Panthers, and Browns. Woof. 

The Eagles are better than all of those teams and are trending up. The Commanders are coming off a tough loss on a short week and have struggled on defense. Against Jalen Hurts, that’s not a good thing. 

The Sharps at Sharp Hunter may like the road ’dog here. It will be Eagles -3.5 for me. 

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