An Afternoon (Slate) Delight

Russell Wilson is revitalized ...

November 17, 2024

 

Nov. 17, 2024
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NFL Blitz, Afternoon Delight: It’s gameday! Each Sunday, I crack open my marble notebook to share my personal hand notes and leans to help you finalize your betting ticket for this lovely Week 11 afternoon slate.

John Laghezza

Ravens (7-3) at Steelers (7-2)

After all the filth on today’s 1 PM schedule, it's about time for a goodie on the tube. Get your popcorn ready for this bad boy, as two seven-win AFC North divisional titans clash. Hats off to Mike Tomlin for showing the intestinal fortitude needed to make a QB change despite a winning record—and it’s paid dividends. Maybe I let that dreadful commercial campaign affect my judgment because frankly, I sold Russell WIlson’s impact short. He’s acted as a steadying force, bringing a viable point floor to a solid PIT roster. Be on the lookout for improved continuity from the offense and the possible integration of a second deep target in Mike Williams.

As far as Baltimore goes, they’re an absolute unit. Led by Lamar Jackson’s passing (yes, passing!), nearly 32 points/game doesn’t happen by accident. My only concern? A Raven secondary refusing to cover anyone, allowing three of the last four opposing QBs to eclipse 334 (!) passing yards. Gotta risk it for the biscuit. LEAN: PIT +3.5

Colts (4-6) at Jets (3-7)

Two beleaguered sub-.500 squads somehow vying for the postseason. Yay. Riveting stuff. Talk about a massive condemnation of the AFC. Well, you can only play the cards you’re dealt and that’s today’s key—who (if anyone) will step up? As a Jets fan with very few tears left in the tank to shed, NYJ must stop Indy’s ground attack. New York gave up tackling Week 6 versus Buffalo, which won’t bode well with the dangerous duo of Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor lurking.

Luckily for the Airplanes, the Colts D is flawed at best. Indianapolis refuses to blitz, instead relying on differing zones to create INTs. If you don’t push Rodgers off-platform or disrupt his timing, the DBs will be doing double duty—matchup advantage to the offenses on both sides. LEAN: IND/NYJ O43 (-119).

Seahawks (4-5) at 49ers (5-4)

Things definitely just got more interesting for Seattle. Upgrade the Seahawks to a puncher’s chance on the news—alpha wideout DK Metcalf logged full practices this week. Will it be enough to top the Niners, who just returned a superstar of their own? I’m not so sure.

San Fran’s played the underwater beach ball all season, poised to pop. While SEA should at least muster a couple of touchdowns, can they even force a single punt? Mike Macdonald’s defense allowed a staggering 30 points/game since Week 4 against far inferior offenses than SF. Metcalf may be too little, too late if SEA’s defensive woes continue. LEAN: SF -6.5 (-110)

Falcons (6-4) at Broncos (5-5)

Games like this really get me going. I can’t wait to watch ATL/DEN because there are so many questions to be answered. I love it. Two franchises at a micro-inflection point on a macro course correction with new quarterbacks. Atlanta must be champing at the bit to get back on the field after a disappointing loss to New Orleans. Kirk Cousins looks great slinging it recently but let’s be honest—the Falcons haven’t faced an above-average defense since getting roughed up at home in Week 3 against the Chiefs. That’s my top bullet point against a top-3 secondary. Watch for Cousins’ (in)ability to avoid INTs by working progressions in long down-and-distance situations.

For Sean Peyton and the Ponies, it’s all gravy, baby. Not only would they make the playoffs if the season ended today but appear to have found their answer at QB to complement an already lethal defense. Can you say opening the competitive window? Nice things off my chest, keep an eye on Bo Nix’s aptitude in solving disguised zone coverages. Atlanta rarely pressures QBs, relying on plus tackling in the secondary—a great opportunity to see if the rookie QB can get through progressions. LEAN: ATL +2.5 (-110)

Chiefs (9-0) at Bills (8-2)

The 4 PM slate’s so habitually awful that I could get used to a must-see marquee matchup every Sunday afternoon. Chiefs and Bills can only mean one thing … Josh Allen versus Patrick Mahomes, an American tradition like no other. I thought Buffalo was more balanced up and down the roster. Now missing Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid from the pass catcher room, I’m not sure about still planting that flag.

Forever chasing arguably the greatest game ever played, every time these two titans clash, it’s appointment viewing. That said, the legend of Mahomes may be driving narratives to jump the shark. KC cannot run the ball, point blank. I fear their lack of explosivity when behind and the need to sustain long drives come back to haunt them. Betting against Patrick Mahomes as an underdog … what could go wrong? LEAN: BUF ML (-130)

Bengals (4-6) at Chargers (6-3)

Name a team more exciting every week than the Bengals. Still trying to shake off those three straight L’s to start the season, Zac Taylor’s got his work cut out for him against the throwback Chargers. Joe Burrow does get Tee Higgins back, in what’s essentially their seventh must-win game in a row. Even if Higgins doesn’t leave a mark on the game directly, you can already see his impact looming. As strong as the Bolts’ defensive metrics play across the board, there’s definitely some weakness against the run when spread out—LAC ranks dead last in yards/carry over the last four weeks. Expect a heavy dose of Chase Brown to keep Justin Herbert off the field as much as possible.

Another apology to Jim Harbaugh for selling him short with a quality QB under center. Herbert’s sitting at a 9.3 YPA this month with replacement-level players at the skill positions—this honestly feels like the NFL’s next great QB/Head Coach combo. LEAN: CIN/LAC O47.5 (-115)

Make sure to check out the 4 PM slate in our NFL Game Betting Model to identify the biggest edges on game totals, spreads, and moneylines!

What else is in today’s newsletter?

  • Throwing The Distance: Muscle Wilson 

  • The New York Prop Exchange: Shakir’s Hips Don’t Lie

  • Sharp Hunter: Sticky Conditions and Slow Scoring

NFL BETTING

Throwing The Distance🏈💪🏽—Muscle Wilson

We’ve targeted the Ravens secondary all season with great results. Books stubbornly refuse to accept the new reality of these 2024 Ravens so if it ain’t broke, we ain’t breakin’ it. It’s the gift that keeps on giving …

Fantasy gamers and DFS players are more than familiar with the term pass funnel. For years, it evoked the Buccaneers and behemoth line-clogger Vita Vea forcing the opposition to give up on running the ball outright. I’d argue this iteration of the Baltimore Ravens may be the sickest pass funnel of all time. Not only can they run-stop and have a porous secondary—the offense averages north of 30 points, so every game’s a shootout. And they’re missing multiple starters.

The disparity in production against run and pass attacks could not be starker—you have to see it to believe it. Almost pointless to even bother trying to run through that veritable steel curtain (pun intended).

  • +0.19 Defensive Rush EPA/Snap: 1st

  • 31.0% Rush Success Rate Allowed:: 2nd

  • 3.4 Yards Per Rush: 1st

  • 73.0 Rush Yards Per Game: 1st

  • 1.19 Yards Before Contact Per Rush: 4th

  • 2.19 Yards After Contact Per Rush: 1st

  • 2 +20-Yard Carries: T-1st

  • 4.2% Explosive Rush Rate: 1st

When grading any pass funnel, it’s understood any stats prone to compiling will skyrocket. The problem for me here is John Harbaugh’s ultra-soft style of defensive play-calling. Too many 5-DB sets, too many two-high shells, and too much cover-6. They sound preventative in practice but you still need skilled secondary play from the DBs—something drastically lacking for BAL right now. Even with a relatively free pass on the volume-related stuff, Baltimore’s defensive pass metrics could reverse your last meal

  • -0.19 Defensive EPA/Dropback: 31st

  • 26.1 Completions Per Game: 32nd

  • 294.9 Passing Yards Per Game: 32nd

  • 12.1 Yards Per Reception: 29th

  • 47 +20-Yard Completions: 32nd

  • 4.0% Sack Rate: 32nd

  • 22 Passing TD: 32nd

Then what if I told you it's even worse zooming in on the last month? Wilson’s got the underlying stats this year (+0.37 EPA/attempt, 105.9 passer rating, 8.7 YPA) to clear 229 yards with no problem, providing the volume’s there. We’ll need Mr. Unlimited to do something 80% of the Ravens’ opposing QBs didn’t just accomplish—but with ease. 

All eight QBs to go over today’s bar did so by at least 46 yards (!) (below):

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NFL BETTING

The New York Prop Exchange🏈🏛️—Shakir’s Hips Don’t Lie

Guess I’m playing the greatest hits today so I’ll keep it quick. Once again I find myself bewildered by a prop line I’ve already won on several times this season. Maybe I spend too much time in the weeds on this stuff. Nah, couldn't be.  

I’ve remained more defensive-minded than the pack in my boomer analysis of KC/BUF. We all want to see a hundred points. I get it. That said, I’m doubting a shootout and generally identifying props with a healthy resistance to the game script. Enter Bills' wide receiver Khalil Shakir (again). 

  • Targets: 33

  • Receptions: 28

  • Receiving Yards: 280

  • Target Per Route: 28.7%

  • Team Target Share: 24.4%

  • Separation Score: 4.57

  • Slot Routes Per Game: 21.8

  • Slot Receptions Per Game 5.0

Keep that last one in mind when we get to the glaring weakness in the Chiefs’ defense. Aside from continuity, repetitions, and rapport with superstar QB Josh Allen, the Bills already declared two full-time skill position players out (Keon Coleman + Dalton Kincaid). Averaging seven catches per game for a month starts to feel like a floor eventually.

Can’t really trash the Chiefs’ D after singing their praise in the intro, but there are no flawless strategies. Steve Spagnuolo’s getting great results deploying a top-3 blitz rate. But remember, every action has an equal and opposite reaction. Being so aggressive with the blitz, especially in 4-DB alignments creates mismatches over the middle. This is evident in the damage done by slot WRs this year vs KC: 9.0 receptions for 92.6 yards/game. Whoa.

I’m expecting Buffalo to stay the course, manufacturing touches for Shakir whenever he’s not the hot read underneath.

AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

👀 The top five player props for today’s slate. Purdy, Purdy good.

💰 Before you confirm your bet, confirm it with our NFL Game Model.

🤑 The players are paid to score, so why can’t you be? … Week 11 Anytime TDs.

NFL BETTING

Sharp Hunter: Sticky Conditions and Slow Scoring

Lots of games to choose from in Week 11 of the NFL season. 

Let's hope the action is better than Tyson v. Paul on Friday night … yikes.  

Friday, Sunday, really every day—Sharp Hunter tracks bets from some of the sharpest bettors around. Not just in the NFL, but NBA, CFB, and now CBB. 

In the NFL, some of the sharpest bettors around like an UNDER on Sunday. 

The Las Vegas Raiders are in Miami to face the Dolphins in a game with a total of 44. 

We’re showing a Two-Bag Sharp Score on that UNDER. That means the sharps are betting the UNDER here. 

I’m looking to bet with the sharps here. And I’ll tell you why.

The Raiders play slow. They rank as the 5th slowest team in SEC/PLAY in FTN’s pace stats this season. They’re so slow and they’ve run the 3rd fewest offensive plays in the NFL this season. With Gardner Minshew at QB, why would you want to play fast? 

On the other side, In neutral-pace situations (meaning a team is between up eight points and down eight points) the Dolphins are running the ball over 50% of the time—one of just four teams in the NFL over 50%. They want to run the ball and the Raiders want to play slow—both good things for the UNDER. 

The Raiders fired their OC this week and now turn to Scott Turner—who talked about being efficient in the running game this week.

Meanwhile, it looks like 80s and humid Sunday in Miami—it’s thin but the sticky conditions could slow down scoring Sunday afternoon.

Even if Miami puts up 28 here, I don’t see the Raiders getting to 14 on the road. I will be betting their UNDER team total, for sure on Vegas.

But as far as the game, I’m with the sharps - We like the UNDER 44 here in Miami.

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